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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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52 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy weenie GFS run.  So we have the models that blew day 3 on the coastal, cold and snowy, and the model that nailed the coastal north and toasty. Maybe we get a reverse because this is an overrunning situation. Weenie deep thoughts brought to you by Blizzard 13% IPA  and the Epicosity bar where every order of  Blizzard beer comes with a free foot long.

There will be some sort of compromise most likely.

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23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I thought that was sort of a win for the GFS.  The EURO was trying to bring a monster slug of 1" QPF (like the NAM) in 6 hours all the way into your area and central Mass on a couple of those runs.  It even had a run with like 0.40" QPF back here.

Yea, the GFS resolved the chase east better IMO.

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

I just hated the 2 run flinch 00z and 06z Friday. It was trying to taint SE MA and deform WNE to my area. I mean SE SNE was modeled for a dumping either way whether it be coastal front, deform, etc, but the Euro made for a lot of bad forecasts west of DAW-ORH-IJD. 

But like I said to Will, they all struggled at times. 

That is why I focused the very heaviest snows more over the interior, than I did se MA....I hedged towards SE MA getting crushed with the CF, and the main area of mid level fronto being inland, but I lost on that...it was just one huge band near the coast, with a smaller secondary maxima late over central and interior eastern MA.

Nightmare forecast.

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59 minutes ago, klw said:

1998 did in VT, started above freezing but cold air drained in under the warmer air, exp in the Champlain Valley, flipping it to freezing rain for the heavier precip

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/IceStorm1998.pdf

The December 2008 ice storm also started as rain in ORH....we flipped over sometime during the afternoon on Dec 11th, but it didn't really start glazing well until closer to sundown.

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The December 2008 ice storm also started as rain in ORH....we flipped over sometime during the afternoon on Dec 11th, but it didn't really start glazing well until closer to sundown.

November 17, 2002 featured a very damaging ice storm that caused big time damage across northwest CT (Litchfield County), the higher terrain areas of western Hartford County and northern New Haven County... Tremendous tree and power pole damage.  Started as rain during the afternoon on into the early evening before changing to freezing rain as cold air undercut the milder air sitting across the region; along Rt 69 heading from Bristol into Wolcott there was a stretch of about 10 poles snapped all in a row!!!  

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