PhineasC Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Ensembles still seem to be pointing to this going north (possibly even north of NNE), but they are slowly moving south. 06z GFS was a big flip from 00z, we will see if it gets any backup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 59 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 6z GEFS snow probabilities. What a winter for synoptic snows in Buffalo area, they are pegged for like 10-18” again on some of these runs. 40%...not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 52 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Holy weenie GFS run. So we have the models that blew day 3 on the coastal, cold and snowy, and the model that nailed the coastal north and toasty. Maybe we get a reverse because this is an overrunning situation. Weenie deep thoughts brought to you by Blizzard 13% IPA and the Epicosity bar where every order of Blizzard beer comes with a free foot long. There will be some sort of compromise most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I thought that was sort of a win for the GFS. The EURO was trying to bring a monster slug of 1" QPF (like the NAM) in 6 hours all the way into your area and central Mass on a couple of those runs. It even had a run with like 0.40" QPF back here. Yea, the GFS resolved the chase east better IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Another cold morning here, -11° was the low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: I just hated the 2 run flinch 00z and 06z Friday. It was trying to taint SE MA and deform WNE to my area. I mean SE SNE was modeled for a dumping either way whether it be coastal front, deform, etc, but the Euro made for a lot of bad forecasts west of DAW-ORH-IJD. But like I said to Will, they all struggled at times. That is why I focused the very heaviest snows more over the interior, than I did se MA....I hedged towards SE MA getting crushed with the CF, and the main area of mid level fronto being inland, but I lost on that...it was just one huge band near the coast, with a smaller secondary maxima late over central and interior eastern MA. Nightmare forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Another cold morning here, -11° was the low. -7.1 IMBY 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: -7.1 IMBY We've had either 8 or 9 mornings below zero this season, Last year, 1, GYX -4.1 departure for Jan, Been a cold month overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 We were told last night the models were locked, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: We've had either 8 or 9 mornings below zero this season, Last year, 1, GYX -4.1 departure for Jan, Been a cold month overall. Nice to see we can still get a below normal cold month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 59 minutes ago, klw said: 1998 did in VT, started above freezing but cold air drained in under the warmer air, exp in the Champlain Valley, flipping it to freezing rain for the heavier precip https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/IceStorm1998.pdf The December 2008 ice storm also started as rain in ORH....we flipped over sometime during the afternoon on Dec 11th, but it didn't really start glazing well until closer to sundown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 So it looks like things are beginning to trend colder? I detected that yesterday compared to prior days. It was like sniffing a bunch hunch. I saw the runs yesterday and was like hmm maybe that will trend colder. A hunch for a bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 40 minutes ago, dryslot said: We've had either 8 or 9 mornings below zero this season, Last year, 1, GYX -4.1 departure for Jan, Been a cold month overall. My electric bill (heat pumps) has noticed.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The December 2008 ice storm also started as rain in ORH....we flipped over sometime during the afternoon on Dec 11th, but it didn't really start glazing well until closer to sundown. November 17, 2002 featured a very damaging ice storm that caused big time damage across northwest CT (Litchfield County), the higher terrain areas of western Hartford County and northern New Haven County... Tremendous tree and power pole damage. Started as rain during the afternoon on into the early evening before changing to freezing rain as cold air undercut the milder air sitting across the region; along Rt 69 heading from Bristol into Wolcott there was a stretch of about 10 poles snapped all in a row!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, Digityman said: My electric bill (heat pumps) has noticed.... (Cue BrianW with his solar pimping) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 House was 57 degrees this morning. Ugh, out of oil, lol. Filling cans of diesel ftl.Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Professional Lurker said: House was 57 degrees this morning. Ugh, out of oil, lol. Filling cans of diesel ftl. Dang. That's not good. Hopefully they can come fill the tank quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Nam is further east compared to 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 NAM looks noticeably warmer and more wound up than 06z GFS, but it's at range so not putting much stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Nam is further east compared to 6z 12z was warmer than 06z but it's just minute differences on the 84 NAM. On to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 12z was warmer than 06z but it's just minute differences on the 84 NAM. On to GFS. Nice hit for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Nice hit for you Shhh, you might anger the SNE weenies if you say that. This is going to be another 20” for them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Shhh, you might anger the SNE weenies if you say that. This is going to be another 20” for them. Congrats Atlantic City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is further east compared to 6z You're comparing 84hr on 2 different runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: You're comparing 84hr on 2 different runs. Still well south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Congrats Atlantic City 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Congrats Atlantic City 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Shhh, you might anger the SNE weenies if you say that. This is going to be another 20” for them. Nah that wouldn't happen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The Midwest is having a weenie's dream. Two days of continuous snow, with 20"-30"....imagine our board if that was us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: The Midwest is having a weenie's dream. Two days of continuous snow, with 20"-30"....imagine our board if that was us? It did happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: The Midwest is having a weenie's dream. Two days of continuous snow, with 20"-30"....imagine our board if that was us? We had that in 2015. 3 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now