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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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31 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

RGEM looks like the NAM...

The NAM moved toward the 18z RGEM solution so good to see the 00z RGEM the same. 
 

18z RGEM was the first I saw with the upper levels like we’ve seen the last few runs. And while the Euro was drier it was still similar earlier in the run to the RGEM and now NAM. 
 

RGEM is a little faster with the northern wave dropping down than the NAM so the low moves out sooner. If we can get some more interaction with the southern wave things would likely be even better. 

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4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Well, looks like this is trending towards a sleet storm for RDU and points SE. The more amped it is, the more sleet we get. 

I know I posted this entire sleet manifesto a little earlier but the caveat is that if that northern shortwave keeps digging southward and retains some of its punch/integrity, we really get the best of both worlds. Storm would be able to draw more moisture and heights would be depressed (and overall temp profiles would look a lot better). Amped doesn't necessarily mean more mixing issues if the shortwave that's being amped is also digging more to the south.

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GFS trending further west over the past 3 runs. We had a significant winter storm across much of the state on Jan 17, 2018 that reminds me of this setup. Seemed like the GFS trended further west with the moisture each run right up until go time and the NAM captured a much more organized system before the globals caught on. https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=627

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh72_trend.gif

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Yea GFS is looking more like the others in the upper levels but the southern wave is still left out to dry, just not as bad as the 18z run. 18z GFS popped a second low off the coast of Florida because of the leftover southern wave. 
 

At least this run there’s more interaction between the waves. In the end, it’s another trend to the upper levels we are seeing in other models which is great to start to see.  

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9 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

GFS trending further west over the past 3 runs. We had a significant winter storm across much of the state on Jan 17, 2018 that reminds me of this setup. Seemed like the GFS trended further west with the moisture each run right up until go time and the NAM captured a much more organized system before the globals caught on. https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=627

 


I was thinking the same thing earlier. Transient slow moving front that popped a low off the coast with good ratios and ground temps if I remember correctly. 
 

Our other hope in these parts is a low bombing off the coast but that brings convection issues from the gulf and tight gradients as well. Always threading the needle around here. 

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