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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

5 inches at Morganton. Know it’s been a good winter when that seems meh lol 

This type of coastal low is usually not good for us in western NC, especially when upper level support is lacking. IMO, this is really looking like a good setup for eastern NC. I really doubt how much moisture would wrap around roughly west of 77 at the moment.

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Don’t think anyone thought they were bad for central NC 

Sorry, reading quickly to catch up and I was getting a vibe that many were concerned.  I'm looking at the Euro scratching my head thinking everyone should be elated with these trends outside of WNC/VA.  This is exactly what most were hoping for last week!

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1 minute ago, WxJordan said:

This type of coastal low is usually not good for us in western NC, especially when upper level support is lacking. IMO, this is really looking like a good setup for eastern NC. I really doubt how much moisture would wrap around roughly west of 77 at the moment.

I think the over running moisture initially will be the best for us up this way. With the ratios, .20-.25 of qpf will get you warning criteria. 

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1 minute ago, VABILLUPS1 said:

I'm under that 21 in Va. Beach so, yeah, nice run. I'll sign for a quarter of that right now. 

I'm sure it's overdone even in the best of times but gives you an idea what could start happening if ratios go above 10:1 for a bit

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I think the over running moisture initially will be the best for us up this way. With the ratios, .20-.25 of qpf will get you warning criteria. 

Maybe. Its hard to wrap around enough moisture with the upper air features and low track. Not impossible, just very difficult.

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10 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Sorry, reading quickly to catch up and I was getting a vibe that many were concerned.  I'm looking at the Euro scratching my head thinking everyone should be elated with these trends outside of WNC/VA.  This is exactly what most were hoping for last week!

and let's be real here (with much love to the SWVA and mountain crew) those guys cash EVERY winter event that we get warm nosed on.  ;)  They'll live.

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Just now, btownheel said:

and let's be real here (with much love to the SWVA and mountain crew) those guys cash EVERY winter event that we get warm nosed on.  ;)  They'll live.

Heck, they are probably in for a few more solid hits this winter anyway.

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Two things this morning 1. I noticed that wfmy weather team I think Ed Matthew's said this would be more like snow showers and not a big deal he made it sound like. ( hoping we get 2 to 3 inches I would be okay with that in gso which with the temps in the 20s would definitely effect travel) 2. This is giving my flash backs to a storm in 2000 December where there was winter storm warning for 5 to 7 inches we woke up to sunny sky's then I went to my grandparents in spring lake and it was dumping lol 

 

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14 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

UK is usually to far south for it's bias right?  If this comes north--whoowee schwing!

 

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I’m sorry…. I get setups ect….. but no way Florence gets a foot …. Look at the setup and some of the areas forecast to recieve even a few inches Myrtle/Wilmington think of how rare this would be….. historically this outcome is near impossible imo 

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6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Probably worthless but the 12zjma is still phasing and throwing precip way back west 

Looking at the 12z euro ens members, I'd say several are still showing a phase with the amount of moisture in the western part of NC.

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15 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'd be weary of the NE trend in this situation.  We need to see the precipitation blossom as the low rides the coast, and not wait until it's in NE NC/SE VA to do it.

If it happened a lot, then I might be weary of it.  But perhaps we should be leery or even wary of it?  Uncertain.  :D

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