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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Please show us where...??

Barnes corners, lowville, old forge, lake placid.....all snow.  https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.2821&lon=-73.9828#.YfyUO-pKiUk and many locals have been snowing since this afternoon. 

Maybe southern NY, but not northern. 

 

 

 

Talk of it in the NY thread. 

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39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

15 miles down the road it's 56.

Yea that’s quite a difference, just using the official stations you can see that stations like LNS and THV have a pretty decent southerly breeze and that even extends up to Reading too. If I’m being honest I think York, Lancaster, possibly Adams, and those few LWX counties Hagerstown east are probably the rest of the way cooked for this event and I wouldn’t be surprised if they get dropped from the advisory. Ice accruals reaching a tenth and more I think likely stays Harrisburg north and west and probably more so out of the city.

The issue in the LSV is if the precip shuts off before the cold air can get down there, which is looking more likely. HRRR shuts off precip there there by about 17-18z and the cold’s too late. NAM hangs a few hours longer and does get some measurable mixed down into the southern counties. The new 0z HREF still supports the advisory as well but it may end up being too cold overnight vs the current ground truth with the warmer temps that snuck up into the southern tier. 

 

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At midnight here it is 41.0 degrees and has been very steady between 40 and 41 all evening.  The rain has stopped for the moment.  My tipping bucket gauge showed 1.30" for the day.  I'm about to go out back and measure and empty my clear-vue gauge.  Since I know there will be at least some freezing rain I'm taking out the inner cylinder and placing the outer cylinder on my snowboard.  I'm sure I'll wake up at some point during the night to look at my outdoor temp.  I won't think about getting out of bed until the temp has at least dropped to 32.  If last night's gfs is accurate I am supposed to receiving another 0.50" between now and the end of the storm.  I have no idea how much of that will fall above 32 versus below 32.  We shall see.

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Ok, after bringing in my clear-vue to measure, it shows 1.21" of rain fell for calendar date 2/3.  So my Ambient, which I already knew over-records, over-recorded by 0.09" which is an error rate of roughly +7%.  Fortunately, the Ambient stations allow you to enter calibration offsets into the consoles for every parameter.  I already have it set up to under-record by 8%.  It will take a few more good precip events to zero in on the correct offset.  I made the current adjustment several months ago.  It seemed to be fairly accurate with heavier events.  I am going to pull down the negative offset another 2% to 10% total and I'll see where that leaves me.  For those of you who have full weather stations that record rainfall, I would encourage you to consider purchasing a clear-vue gauge if you don't already have one.  It is invaluable all year round since in the winter, if I'm going to have an all-snow event, I do what I just did and removed the inner cylinder and am simply leaving the outer cylinder in place.  For the snow events it's great because I can bring the gauge indoors where I can melt the snow down and then measure the amount of water contained in the snow.  That's how you come up with the SLR (snow to liquid ratio).  Worth the investment even though it generally runs around $50.  But, in my opinion, you should always have this type of gauge as a backup to your tipping bucket which then reassures you that your precip is accurate.

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We are down to 31 in Williamsport at the airport in Montoursville at 1a.  We have had our flood advisory extended from 12:15a until 7:00 and our winter weather advisory goes until 10:00.  I have been hearing water flow down the hole in the cellar floor for hours but not anymore.  The cold rain that is coming down at a good.clip is sticking as ice to the steel porch railing.  I hope we go to sleet.  We shall see.

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As I feared. 34 and plain rain here in Tamaqua. 31 and freezing rain in Sunbury. Boss isn't in Sunbury, though, so I don't know if I can call out...

BTW, it's 57 in Reading and 52 in Allentown. Crazy temp gradient in just 25 to 30 miles.

 

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9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

As I feared. 34 and plain rain here in Tamaqua. 31 and freezing rain in Sunbury. Boss isn't in Sunbury, though, so I don't know if I can call out...

BTW, it's 57 in Reading and 52 in Allentown. Crazy temp gradient in just 25 to 30 miles.

 

call out it doesnt matter where your boss is. if its icy and freezing rain and you get in a accident is he gonna pay your bills.

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Woke up a bit ago to freezing rain and sleet here and temp down to 31ºF. Never thought I’d be so glad to hear the pingers. Driveway, deck, and cars are pretty froze up. There doesn’t appear to be a big amount of ice in the trees. Rain gauge is at 2.02”, this was one heck of a rain event. Looks like the local rivers are going to just barely miss flood stage. I think the only thing that kept this from being a full fledge flooding event was a lot of the snow pack staying in tact. 

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5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I think the only thing that kept this from being a full fledge flooding event was a lot of the snow pack staying in tact. 

The pack in my yard was wasted this week and yesterday down to the layer of ice from the first event back in January. With the amount of rain we got yesterday and with the temperature near 40°F at one point, I had assumed we would have lost the entire pack, but that ice layer held serve. 

The pond by my doorstep is frozen and there appears to be a little more than a dusting of sleet on it. I can't wait to forget about the water just sitting there in a day or two and fall through the surface layer of ice, fall five inches through water and then roll my foot on the permafrost. 

I don't always roll a joint, but when I do, it's my ankle. 

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So far, so good this morning. Just wet in Tower City right now. In my backyard it's still 33.3 degrees, so no ice there yet, either.

Event total to this point is 2.35 inches. Quite a soaker and creeks and rivers are running quite high.

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