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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


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Based on recent trends (and the GSP forecast), I'm thinking CLT flips to plain rain well before the precip ends. Will help significantly with ice issues, though a lot may have already fallen. The WAA almost always scours out the cold air quicker than progged around the metro, even at the surface.

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16 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Based on recent trends (and the GSP forecast), I'm thinking CLT flips to plain rain well before the precip ends. Will help significantly with ice issues, though a lot may have already fallen. The WAA almost always scours out the cold air quicker than progged around the metro, even at the surface.

Maybe Uptown down towards Pineville/East Side towards Monroe but nowhere South or University imo ….HWY73 Along and N is the battleground most times

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --

As of 300 PM EST Saturday: Winter storm still on track for the forecast area, but the trend continues for more sleet and freezing rain outside of the NC mountains and Blue Ridge. A little more sleet and freezing rain than snow now expected across the in the lower French Broad valley and the mountains west of the French Broad valley, at least early in the event. Off and on sprinkles and flurries will continue into the evening as weak lift moves in ahead of the main system. Precip chances begin ramping up after midnight and better forcing and deep moisture move in from the west. Expect a combination of rain or snow as the moisture moves in and evaporational cooling takes over and cold air damming strengthens outside of the mountains. The warm nose then kicks in toward morning and moves north across much of the area. The warm nose, and warming surface temps, then moves into the Southwestern NC mountains where cold air damming impacts are normally less. This means a change over to sleet and freezing rain from south to north and encroaching from the west. In fact, the lower French Broad valley and Little TN basin will see warming so that rain may be predominant for several hours. The warm nose even moves across all the NC mountains with a change over to sleet. As the surface low and H85 low move east, the warm nose moves east as well with colder air moving in behind. This will make a change back to snow from west to east across the area late in the afternoon. Precip chances taper off from north to south through the evening as the low pressure continues to move away from the area. Snow will linger across the mountains and retreat toward the TN border as the event shifts to a NW flow snow scenario. Winds will also be an issue tonight and Sunday as a strong low level jet moves in with the warm nose. Gusty winds will develop across the area with potentially strong wind gusts in some locations. Since a winter warning is already in place across the area, the wind threat will be included in this warning. Of course, these winds could cause issues where freezing rain accretion is highest.

-- End Changed Discussion --
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Also, NAM made a huge correction on warm nose for the upstate... Now looks similar to Hrrr, rgem, RAP, etc.

Surface is still a little warm on NAM than other hi-res modeling, but it initialized 2 degrees too warm on temp and dewpoint here. 

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1 minute ago, Snow dog said:

Burrel-that looms fantastic!  I really want to believe that.  What’s your confidence level in the Hrrr?…

Here are my post-storm notes from a few recent events.

feb 6, 2021 Miller a with -3 850s but warm boundary layer, started off as rain and 39 wetbulb, heavy rates flipped it to snow. Hrrr nailed transition and precip maxima, nam was way too warm at surface and too quick with warm nose and too dry.

 

feb 20, 2020  started as rain around 10:00am, mixed with snow on and off all day until it ended around 6pm. Temp started at 44 and just didn't drop fast. HRRR nailed warm nose and low level temps. short range models were a little too wet, showed .5-.8 and i got .4

 

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3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Here are my post-storm notes from a few recent events.

feb 6, 2021 Miller a with -3 850s but warm boundary layer, started off as rain and 39 wetbulb, heavy rates flipped it to snow. Hrrr nailed transition and precip maxima, nam was way too warm at surface and too quick with warm nose and too dry.

 

feb 20, 2020  started as rain around 10:00am, mixed with snow on and off all day until it ended around 6pm. Temp started at 44 and just didn't drop fast. HRRR nailed warm nose and low level temps. short range models were a little too wet, showed .5-.8 and i got .4

 

Nice!  Hoping it’s right for this one.  Cutting those totals in half would be a great event here in Greenville!

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Just got this from Duke power. I'm thinking the people out east that are upset they're missing out on this, might be thankful after this. 

 

Forecasters are increasingly confident that the approaching winter storm will bring significant ice, sleet and snow to the Carolinas early Sunday and will persist throughout the day. These conditions could cause severe damage to trees, lines and poles, resulting in widespread and extended power outages.

Our meteorologists are closely monitoring the storm as we position crews across the Carolinas to quickly and safely respond to whatever the storm brings. We’ve also brought in crews from our Midwest and Florida regions, plus an additional 2,500 workers from neighboring utilities.

While we will face any storm damage with the full force of all available resources, the likelihood of widespread damage and difficult travel conditions could make this a long, complicated restoration process. Sunday’s precipitation may prevent us from making significant progress until the storm clears the area later that evening.

We urge all customers to prepare now and stay safe throughout the storm. We especially encourage anyone with special medical needs or elderly family members to make alternative shelter arrangements now, in advance of the storm.

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At this point, as a novice, I only look at the radar and the movement of the low pressure. The low seems to continue its movement south, while the precipitation is building eastward. It is going to be a good snow for the areas north of Wade Hampton Blvd. in Greenville. Somebody in Greenville County is going to get 6+ inches. 

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1 minute ago, audioguy3107 said:

FFC just added a few more metro Atlanta counties to the Winter Storm Warning including Forsyth and Gwinnett, also as L.G.L. Just said above, a high wind warning as well, regardless of amounts here this looks like it’ll be a real mess.

- Buck

The 18Z NAM has .18 snow at ATL.  Definitely need to watch 17-00Z tomorrow.  I would only forecast around an inch or so now but there is risk for as much as 3 I think if there is more organized snow behind the upper low.

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Hrrr is straight porn for the Upstate and NE Georgia. Complete jackpot paste job... It's becoming clear that this area is going to get hammered for at least a few hours tonight before any changeover to sleet happens. I  think 2-4 is a conservative call at this point, (I -85 north in SC and Gainesville, GA and points North and East in Georgia).

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Just now, burrel2 said:

Hrrr is straight porn for the Upstate and NE Georgia. Complete jackpot paste job... It's becoming clear that the this area is going to get hammered for at least a few hours tonight before any changeover to sleet happens. I  think 2-4 is a conservative call at this point, (I -85 north in SC and Gainesville, GA and points North and East in Georgia).

It really has been consistent with this solution for quite awhile now, It’ll be a nice win if it nails it.  If we can get the low to swing though and give us another couple of inches like SnowGoose said on the backside it would really be a great event.

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5 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Hrrr is straight porn for the Upstate and NE Georgia. Complete jackpot paste job... It's becoming clear that this area is going to get hammered for at least a few hours tonight before any changeover to sleet happens. I  think 2-4 is a conservative call at this point, (I -85 north in SC and Gainesville, GA and points North and East in Georgia).

Yes it is although with all the changes with the amounts for my forecast I am still really wary lol. It’s been holding at 38 all afternoon so far. 

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9 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Hrrr is straight porn for the Upstate and NE Georgia. Complete jackpot paste job... It's becoming clear that this area is going to get hammered for at least a few hours tonight before any changeover to sleet happens. I  think 2-4 is a conservative call at this point, (I -85 north in SC and Gainesville, GA and points North and East in Georgia).

GSP has totally removed any snow accumulations in most of our area. To the point that I’m not sure why they still have a winter storm warning and not an ice warning. Their forecast has me shaking my head.

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6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Hrrr is straight porn for the Upstate and NE Georgia. Complete jackpot paste job... It's becoming clear that this area is going to get hammered for at least a few hours tonight before any changeover to sleet happens. I  think 2-4 is a conservative call at this point, (I -85 north in SC and Gainesville, GA and points North and East in Georgia).

Yep, I sure wish I could have went to Gainesville or Clayton but I was forced to stay home for this one and I'm right on the battle line per hrrr. 15 minutes north or south could be a night a day difference here. Ironically its not the 850s that have been the problem but a thin warm layer around 900 to 925mb. Hoping the heavy precip will overcome it and I see a an hour or two at least before changing over but its impossible to say right now. Ihopefully based on the cold low levels sleet can save me from a ton of freezing rain. 

regardless the threat of power outages is high due to expected high winds even without freezing rain. If there is a lot with these winds, its going to be real bad. Interesting disagreement between the 3km nam and hrrr. Hrrr says sleet should be the primary precip in the wedge while nam is freezing rain. Curious to see who wins.

 

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13 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

GSP has totally removed any snow accumulations in most of our area. To the point that I’m not sure why they still have a winter storm warning and not an ice warning. Their forecast has me shaking my head.

It looks like they are thinking mostly sleet or frozen slop with the totals they put out

5 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Yep, I sure wish I could have went to Gainesville or Clayton but I was forced to stay home for this one and I'm right on the battle line per hrrr. 15 minutes north or south could be a night a day difference here. Ironically its not the 850s that have been the problem but a thin warm layer around 900 to 925mb. Hoping the heavy precip will overcome it and I see a an hour or two at least before changing over but its impossible to say right now. Ihopefully based on the cold low levels sleet can save me from a ton of freezing rain. 

regardless the threat of power outages is high due to expected high winds even without freezing rain. If there is a lot with these winds, its going to be real bad. Interesting disagreement between the 3km nam and hrrr. Hrrr says sleet should be the primary precip in the wedge while nam is freezing rain. Curious to see who wins.

 

I'm riding the hrrr train :P If it can ruin our dreams time after time, it can give back just as good as it takes away :bike:

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1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Gotta love that GSP keeps dropping snow totals while the models keep adding it. Lol.

Whos right is the question? Hell even the mets are sticking with the models and there forecast as of now. I don't get it...

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6 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

Whos right is the question? Hell even the mets are sticking with the models and there forecast as of now. I don't get it...

Honestly why wouldn’t they? If it were me I’d keep pumping the ICE train even if I knew it was trending away from it ppl aren’t gonna roast you if you bust too low on SN totals, they’ll rip you apart if you start saying less Ice more SN. Just throw a 2-4” and 1/4-1/2” accum map out and let it rise at this point lol

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