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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This needs to be said: he very, very weary of the thermal profile depicted by the NAM. That model absolutely excels in CAD scenarios such as this. I’d be extremely concerned even in mountain areas if subsequent runs show that warm nose cutting snow off 1/2 way through the storm as this run did, that run was awful for everyone and sadly I give it heightened credence given that models excellent track record nailing warm noses in CAD events. Watch that trend 

Of course every storm is different. But just to play devil's advocate. Here are my post-storm notes for the snow I  received last year...

Date Total Min Temp during precip Mixing Notes
         
Feb 6, 2021 1.75-2 32.2
Miller a with -3 850s but warm boundary layer, started off as rain and 39 wetbulb, heavy rates flipped it to snow. Hrrr nailed transition and precip maxima, nam was way too warm at surface and too quick with warm nose and too dry.
 
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One thing I notice on the 18z GFS is for northwestern NC into VA it’s attempting to strengthen that band pivoting around on the backside of that departing bowling ball ULL. That could absolutely play a factor that may be being overlooked somewhat because of all the short term concerns wrt how the low transfers to the coast thermals etc..

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5 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Gsp on que drops totals here after warning. Screenshot_20220114-170136_Chrome.thumb.jpg.f8dc11580b7798881a5ae54173667c8d.jpg

Literally no model has trended towards less snow in southern oconee/pickens county in the last 24 hours. All of them other than the GFS are showing accumulating snow with the frontal band. The hi-res models that have come in to range look great for this area... and NWS GSP cuts totals to 0? lmao

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40 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This needs to be said: be very, very weary of the thermal profile depicted by the NAM. That model absolutely excels in CAD scenarios such as this. I’d be extremely concerned even in mountain areas if subsequent runs show that warm nose cutting snow off 1/2 way through the storm as this run did, that run was awful for everyone and sadly I give it heightened credence given that models excellent track record nailing warm noses in CAD events. Watch that trend 

I am very weary of NAM thermal profiles.  They have tired me out completely today worrying about their significance.  Thus, I'm also wary of what they are showing.  :D

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Does the tight pressure gradient/high winds ahead of the Low help to push the warm nose at the 850mb level? Sorry if this is a sophmoric question 

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2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I am very weary of NAM thermal profiles.  They have tired me out completely today worrying about their significance.  Thus, I'm also wary of what they are showing.  :D

The NAM has this reputation because it fired the first warning shots in the late Feb 2015 storm and early Jan 2017 storm. In both those storms RDU was basically center cut in the jackpot by every model except the NAM. Everyone was like, "lol crazy NAM", and was unprepared for the gut punch those storms delivered when sleet/rain began to mix in hard. Since then everyone is pretty petrified to bet against it. 

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4 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I am very weary of NAM thermal profiles.  They have tired me out completely today worrying about their significance.  Thus, I'm also wary of what they are showing.  :D

I feel like the model is more screwed up than it ever has been in it’s entire existence. That upgrade just completely warped any remaining intelligence inside that thing :D

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7 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Literally no model has trended towards less snow in southern oconee/pickens county in the last 24 hours. All of them other than the GFS are showing accumulating snow with the frontal band. The hi-res models that have come in to range look great for this area... and NWS GSP cuts totals to 0? lmao

They did this last time I got 4+"..lol

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12 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Literally no model has trended towards less snow in southern oconee/pickens county in the last 24 hours. All of them other than the GFS are showing accumulating snow with the frontal band. The hi-res models that have come in to range look great for this area... and NWS GSP cuts totals to 0? lmao

So, that 18z GFS was the best run for my area since maybe the Tuesday EURO. Somebody's numerical output gain is someone else's numerical output loss. LOL. Doesn't really mean a thing at this point.

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17 minutes ago, Grayman said:

What do you guys make of both the HRRR and now RAP taking the low up all the way over to the mountains? That can’t be good 

Lesnar Laugh | Undertaker's Screaming Face | Know Your Meme

I get a good laugh and then move on. WAYYYY too far out of their range. No point in looking this far out imo.  

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28 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

The NAM has this reputation because it fired the first warning shots in the late Feb 2015 storm and early Jan 2017 storm. In both those storms RDU was basically center cut in the jackpot by every model except the NAM. Everyone was like, "lol crazy NAM", and was unprepared for the gut punch those storms delivered when sleet/rain began to mix in hard. Since then everyone is pretty petrified to bet against it. 

That Jan 2017 bust was legendary.  It led to one of the best posts I have ever seen on here: Cold Rains epic " What we learned".

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31 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

That Jan 2017 bust was legendary.  It led to one of the best posts I have ever seen on here: Cold Rains epic " What we learned".

After losing countless hours of my attention (and sleep) to that storm I swore I would stop following winter storms and just let things be.  Guess that didn’t pan out… 

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4 minutes ago, dogwoods said:

After losing countless hours of my attention (and sleep) to that storm I swore I would stop following winter storms and just let things be.  Guess that didn’t pan out… 

Yep, I was in the same boat. GSP had Charlotte proper getting 9-11 inches. We got like 2.1 inches of pure slop. There was a similar mid-December bust with almost the exact same setup/output around that time as well.

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23 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Yep, I was in the same boat. GSP had Charlotte proper getting 9-11 inches. We got like 2.1 inches of pure slop. There was a similar mid-December bust with almost the exact same setup/output around that time as well.

How’s Charlotte looking for this storm? I live up in south Jersey and even we are getting all rain up here but my brother lives in Charlotte and has been asking me about it but I’m just super unfamiliar with how storms play out down there. 

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Just now, coastal front said:

How’s Charlotte looking for this storm? I live up in south Jersey and even we are getting all rain up here but my brother lives in Charlotte and has been asking me about it but I’m just super unfamiliar with how storms play out down there. 

Trending towards almost all ZR. I'm guessing about a half inch, which will be pretty devastating. Though, honestly, I also won't be surprised to turn over to plain rain eventually which will limit our issues big time. Might get a quick inch or two of snow/sleet before the changeover. Going to be depressing as always watching the correlation coefficient radar FLY up from SC through NC. 

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29 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Trending towards almost all ZR. I'm guessing about a half inch, which will be pretty devastating. Though, honestly, I also won't be surprised to turn over to plain rain eventually which will limit our issues big time. Might get a quick inch or two of snow/sleet before the changeover. Going to be depressing as always watching the correlation coefficient radar FLY up from SC through NC. 

Thanks man I appreciate it. Stay safe down there and we all will get our snowstorm next weekend! 

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