NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I would take the 12Z Euro with a grain of salt for now since it went from nothing to a MECS in 1 run......All the models have been flip flopping around past 3 days out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 !2z EC is back for a snowstorm in much of our area from I95 inland. Am not threading til tomorrow morning, at the earliest. I'd like the 00z/2 GGEM and GFS to be a little more in agreement with the 12z/1 EC, Not posting any more 12z/1 EC graphics and will probably lay low for another 18z hours. The 29/12, 00z/30 and 00z/31 all had sizable snowsrtorms in part of our forum. The more recent others were to our northwest. Now the 12z/1 is back over us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, wdrag said: !2z EC is back for a snowstorm in much of our area from I95 inland. Am not threading til tomorrow morning, at the earliest. I'd like the 00z/2 GGEM and GFS to be a little more in agreement with the 12z/1 EC, Not posting any more 12z/1 EC graphics and will probably law low for another 18z hours. The 29/12, 00z/30 and 00z/31 all had sizable snowsrtorms in part of our forum. The more recent others were to our northwest. Now the 12z/1 is back over us. I would wait till later tomorrow or early Monday...........models have been inconsistent this winter so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I would take the 12Z Euro with a grain of salt for now since it went from nothing to a MECS in 1 run...... Grain of salt yes, but basically it's been big event in a part of the Northeast USA every cycle since 12z/29, with 29/12z, 00z/30, 00z/31 all big in a part of our forum (5+") 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I would take the 12Z Euro with a grain of salt for now since it went from nothing to a MECS in 1 run...... It did have something, the deepening low was just farther north than this latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: It did have something, the deepening low was just farther north than this run. I was talking frozen thats all we care about we don't do threads for rainstorms for the most part.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I was talking frozen thats all we care about we don't do threads for rainstorms for the most part.... It had frozen N and W on other runs as well just not this much. I do agree that it is still way too early in the game but at least it may be something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I was talking frozen thats all we care about we don't do threads for rainstorms for the most part.... I checked all the runs back to 29/12. 29/12 had 5-6" up at i84, 00z/30 and 00z/31 10"+ just inside I95. Recent runs that did not were big in upstate NY. This is not a D6 perfect prog... could still be an inside runner with a rain shower CFP. Pattern is in the process of evolving away from west coast winter focus into the central and eastern USA. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Stretched polar vortex into SE Canada with Arctic outbreak into the region several days after the storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 12z euro ensemble on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 FWIW the 12z GEFS had 5 members with good to big hits to the north and west of I95 and 2 members with hits from the city S and E. Another member covered the whole area. I backed out the output from what I believe will be a non event Sunday night for this forum. This is from the Dupage website which shows outputs from 20 members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Okay, The following are multiple cycles of the EC OP Kuchera for our area. Consistent that something will happen in the northeast. Where it rains and snows, definitely uncertain and I've not yet looked at EPS. But regarding what the modeling has shown... whether it's important? To me it is of value and validates expressing some interest. The time of the cycle and it all ends at 12z/8 except I think inadvertently ended one cycle at 00z/8. There is one cycle missing since it as basically a null event down here se of Ithaca. Also again: My thanks to the ECMWF and Weather.US for these graphics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z euro ensemble on board A little too tucked for comfort but glad to see something to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: A little too tucked for comfort but glad to see something to track. At this range, the mean is in a good spot. That's more important for now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, EasternLI said: At this range, the mean is in a good spot. That's more important for now. Wavelength spacing looks like it will be important behind the storm a few days earlier. Then it’s a battle of which ridge is stronger. If the ridge east of New England is stronger then a future run could tuck in a little more. Stronger blocking across the Arctic would continue with runs like today. So several days to go for clarification. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Wavelength spacing looks like it will be important behind the storm a few days earlier. Then it’s a battle of which ridge is stronger. If the ridge east of New England is stronger then a future run could tuck in a little more. Stronger blocking across the Arctic would continue with runs like today. So several days to go for clarification. Yeah, it looks like that one is going to set up the baroclinic zone for this one. So what happens with that one is going to be important for storm track. A bit more blocking would be nice as you mention. Kind of surprised to see that solution today TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 12z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Finally cold air comes through after next weekends possible storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Here's where we leave off at the end of today's EPS 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Finally giving us the MJO phase 8 look. Yeah, I was just about to post that lol. MJO looks good too on this run. Approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the Euro was the middle ground today. The UKMET is more tucked than the Euro with a track right over the area. While CMC and GFS are more SE. So the models will need more time as usual to settle on a storm track. Yeah, like about on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I still cannot believe how out there the NAM is with this system down in the MA in 36 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, it looks like that one is going to set up the baroclinic zone for this one. So what happens with that one is going to be important for storm track. A bit more blocking would be nice as you mention. Kind of surprised to see that solution today TBH. It’s crazy how many different solutions we have seen in less than 24 hours from various models, cutter, inland runner, classic snowstorm track, suppressed, take your pick lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 After the potential storm in about a weeks time, looks like some very cold air to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Wow gfs gets a few inches up this way now and blasts areas further south 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Yeah, what was that lol. GFS Being stubborn with this thing. Might have to check out the 18z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The GFS has been lousy recently. I would not put much into that solution and the EPS was not markedly NW of the Euro Op 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow gfs gets a few inches up this way now and blasts areas further south I'm really not sure what to think. I heard this had shades of Jan 25, 2000 on it. I'm gonna assume the gfs is lost but you never know. Honestly given the warm Atlantic waters and long term trends to tuck the lows in I mean who knows what's possible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 if 0z bumps north again it's time to get interested 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm really not sure what to think. I heard this had shades of Jan 25, 2000 on it. I'm gonna assume the gfs is lost but you never know. Honestly given the warm Atlantic waters and long term trends to tuck the lows in I mean who knows what's possible. yea that was a memorable last minute bust.......Monday could be a fun day watching the radars.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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