January 2022

[forkyfork]

when a pac ridge signal like that shows up the southern edge of the arctic air tends to trend south with time

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I do think it gets bad closer to February.  but in Niña like this we usually get a 2-3 week window to get something . 

Plus a good March typically.

[SnoSki14]

If that Pacific ridge plays out then I have no issues with losing the Atlantic blocking. 

I'll take a good pacific over Atlantic any day. However it's gonna be a struggle sustaining that with the -PDO. 

So I think we'll be good through Jan 20 before things turn mild again.

Still a long shot that Sunday night works out.

[leo2000]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As Allsnow was. But in all honestly, that pattern is temporary, enjoy it while it lasts and hope it produces

What happened last winter and yes it was a La Nina last year too. The La Nina is slowly starting to die out. 

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

We take this look. Now we're getting somewhere for day 5-10 mean. Finally looking much better this run. 

Yeah, nice to see it finally roll east after being stuck for so long around those record SSTs near Australia and New Zealand. That’s why the EPS +PNA is so much better than just a few days ago. Even the CPC commented on the non canonical behavior of the recent forcing. 
 

The RMM indices indicate MJO-related convection in Phase 8, but this convection has not followed the canonical eastward propagating evolution of typical MJO events over recent weeks and may be more reflective of other tropical signals besides the MJO. Ensemble mean forecasts of the RMM indices suggest a westward retreat of the signal before weakening into the Week-2 period.

 

 

[EasternLI]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, nice to see it finally roll east after being stuck for so long around those record SSTs near Australia and New Zealand. That’s why the EPS +PNA is so much better than just a few days ago. Even the CPC commented on the non canonical behavior of the recent forcing. 
 

The RMM indices indicate MJO-related convection in Phase 8, but this convection has not followed the canonical eastward propagating evolution of typical MJO events over recent weeks and may be more reflective of other tropical signals besides the MJO. Ensemble mean forecasts of the RMM indices suggest a westward retreat of the signal before weakening into the Week-2 period.

 

 

Yeah, exactly. I suspected it would be better after that 500mb look. Nice to see it move along finally. It gets pretty convoluted later in the run. I'd imagine we get back to the warm pool sometime in the 2nd half of the month. But we'll follow it and see how it goes. It's been fascinating following this one and I'm sure it will continue to be. I'm pretty happy with this development for now.

[MJO812]

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is starting to latch on to the euro storm

 

ABC is beating the band for a rain changing to snowstorm scenario for next Friday

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, exactly. I suspected it would be better after that 500mb look. Nice to see it move along finally. It gets pretty convoluted later in the run. I'd imagine we get back to the warm pool sometime in the 2nd half of the month. But we'll follow it and see how it goes. It's been fascinating following this one and I'm sure it will continue to be. I'm pretty happy with this development for now.

Hopefully, the EPS holds that 12z look going forward. It has been pretty volatile from run to run in recent days. Just goes to show important the forcing shifting east closer to phase 7-8 will be for our January snowfall potential.  

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, leo2000 said:

What happened last winter and yes it was a La Nina last year too. The La Nina is slowly starting to die out. 

la nina after el nino are our best snowfall scenarios

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I do think it gets bad closer to February.  but in Niña like this we usually get a 2-3 week window to get something . 

when have we ever had a wall to wall winter?  Never.

2-3 weeks is plenty

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Better hope we score with the transient pattern before the end of the month my dude lol The Euro and GFS just showed the cutter risk now that we lost the -NAO blocking. Get your short sleeves ready for the end of January and February lmfaooo 

as long as its sunny and 70 after the snow comes most will be happy

dont need anymore of this yucky rain I'm fine if there is no rain for another month

 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when have we ever had a wall to wall winter?  Never.

2-3 weeks is plenty

 

What I meant is that I don’t think this is a year like 11/12 or 19/20 when it’s a complete shut out. I feel we will finish below avg snowfall wise but still get a favorable 2-3 week period 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

What I meant is that I don’t think this is a year like 11/12 or 19/20 when it’s a complete shut out. I feel we will finish below avg snowfall wise but still get a favorable 2-3 week period 

What are the chances do you think we could get two 6" events in that 2-3 weeks and then one or two more in March?

[SnoSki14]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We could use a stronger than forecast SE ridge for this.

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What are the chances do you think we could get two 6" events in that 2-3 weeks and then one or two more in March?

Extremely low 

[SnowGoose69]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when have we ever had a wall to wall winter?  Never.

2-3 weeks is plenty

 

 

In my lifetime 02-03 is closest...we moderated for a short time in mid December but I don't recall a massive thaw in Jan/Feb as we saw in 93-94 or 95-96

[Eduardo]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

In my lifetime 02-03 is closest...we moderated for a short time in mid December but I don't recall a massive thaw in Jan/Feb as we saw in 93-94 or 95-96

02–03 is such an underrated winter for exactly this reason.  Not much of a thaw at all—at least nothing prolonged.

[NEG NAO]

49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

when have we ever had a wall to wall winter?  Never.

2-3 weeks is plenty

 

1916-17 0 0 0 0 T 14.5 5.8 12.2 11.7 6.5 0 0 50.7

1922-23 0 0 0 0 1.0 8.0 24.5 18.8 8.1 T 0 0 60.4

1947-48 0 0 0 0 T 30.2 15.3 13.6 4.7 0 0 0 63.8

1960-61 0 0 0 T 0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 0 0 54.7

1963-64 0 0 0 0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 0 0 44.7

1995-96 0 0 0 0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 0 0 75.6

2013-14 0 0 0 0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 0 0 57.4

[EasternLI]

Dateline forcing in 02-03. Hence the love affair with Modoki El Niño’s. Fortuitous little warm pool sitting right there that year. +PDO too.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

when have we ever had a wall to wall winter

I would consider 95-96 a wall to wall winter. Snowstorms from late November into April and 90.75” at BNL. Even though we got that big flood cutter in late January, the monthly average temperature was below freezing.. So consistent cold and snow from the fall into the spring.

BNL

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

4.5…15.5…23.5…20.0…11.25…16.0…90.75

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
1995-1996	43.6	32.4	30.5	33.8	38.9	52.2	38.6

 

[NorthShoreWx]

2014 - 15 2015 was close to as wall to wall as we get.  December was more like Galveston, but from mid January through the end of March was wall to wall winter.  We had nearly 70" of snow and some ridiculous cold.  The last of the snow didn't melt until the opening days of April; when does that ever happen on LI?.  95-96 is certainly a contender (95" here) but instead of the late start, it had more interruptions in the middle.

[Allsnow]

Was their any indication that 95/96 was going to be that good? It was a combo of pna/-nao? 

[EasternLI]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Was their any indication that 95/96 was going to be that good? It was a combo of pna/-nao? 

Scandinavian/NAO blocking seems to have dominated. Some similarities with a standard la Niña pattern in the Pacific. Strange year really. Basically a -NAO la Niña. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Scandinavian/NAO blocking seems to have dominated. Some similarities with a standard la Niña pattern in the Pacific. Strange year really. Basically a -NAO la Niña. 

Looks like the nao and sw ridge helped push the cold east. That’s a very active look as well. It snowed every weekend that winter 

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Was their any indication that 95/96 was going to be that good? It was a combo of pna/-nao? 

A perfect Nov to Apr -NAO /-EPO pattern with a ridge near California. Maybe Walt can comment on what the long range forecasts looked like. I really got interested in longer range forecasting after reading Walt’s great AFD’s out of the Boston NWS office in the late 90s. Probably the greatest long range AFDs in NWS history. 
 

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the nao and sw ridge helped push the cold east. That’s a very active look as well. It snowed every weekend that winter 

Yeah, there was a +PDO too which I believe gave a big assist. But that's uncommon for a La Niña.

[Allsnow]

Just now, bluewave said:

A perfect Nov to Apr -NAO /-EPO pattern with a ridge near California. Maybe Walt can comment on what the long range forecasts looked like. I really got interested in longer range forecasting after reading Walt’s great AFD’s out of the Boston NWS office in the late 90s. Probably the greatest long range AFDs in NWS history. 

Unfortunately, I was too young to really embrace that year for what it was. I just remember it snowing every weekend that year. Hopefully, one year in the near future we repeat that pattern. 

[Tatamy]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A perfect Nov to Apr -NAO /-EPO pattern with a ridge near California. Maybe Walt can comment on what the long range forecasts looked like. I really got interested in longer range forecasting after reading Walt’s great AFD’s out of the Boston NWS office in the late 90s. Probably the greatest long range AFDs in NWS history. 
 

I enjoyed reading his short term AFDs back in those days especially when a Coastal storm was in the offing.  It was required reading for me first thing in the morning to read those AM Taunton AFDs.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Was their any indication that 95/96 was going to be that good? It was a combo of pna/-nao? 

 

Yeah.  I posted a few days back that many forecasters who did longer range stuff were excited in Sep/Oct 95 about the winter.  One guy who used to do MA outlooks even as recently as a few years back predicted 50 inches for DC that winter which most would think was insane any year and he was correct.