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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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4 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Hard to Tell but I’d say maybe 2” or so up here on “Country Roads” mountain… 19 and Flurries currently. Not sure what that means for you @Buddy1987 since you’re a bit further south but good luck if I’m not too late I just woke up 

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Congrats on the snow there! This is one of those “snow tv” type of days here. Nothing really sticking but it is really pretty outside. Larger dendrites starting to fall as that last band starts to push in from Blacksburg. Curious if Disc got anything out his way

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think today we can all press the “cancel winter” button. Long range looks warm, even torchy. That brings us into March. Glad we all got some winter weather this season. One day I’m sure RDU will have a big storm again. Maybe… 

Yeah it definitely stings but it is what it is. We barely squeaked out one decent event with so many opportunities. This winter is a C- in the Triangle (and only that because the professor doesn't want to see you in their class anymore).

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2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Still snowing up here in Wv…. Can someone explain NW Flow? It’s been moderate snow for hours now but NOTHING on radar I’d say about another 1-2” today after 2” or so overnight 

Basically Great Lakes moisture being orographically lifted in the WV mountains. Enjoy it!

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9 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Still snowing up here in Wv…. Can someone explain NW Flow? It’s been moderate snow for hours now but NOTHING on radar I’d say about another 1-2” today after 2” or so overnight 

Lower than the radar beam. I’ve picked up quite a bit of accumulation here in NC before when the radar never showed anything. 

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45 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Lower than the radar beam. I’ve picked up quite a bit of accumulation here in NC before when the radar never showed anything. 

Ahhh that makes sense it was just throwing me I didn’t know if it was elevation dependent since I’m at 4800’ or what. Ik Southern Piedmont/CLT Metro Climo I have ZERO clue about any mountain Climo for any state lol

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4 hours ago, PantherJustin said:

Still snowing up here in Wv…. Can someone explain NW Flow? It’s been moderate snow for hours now but NOTHING on radar I’d say about another 1-2” today after 2” or so overnight 

We actually call it Lake Effect snow back in WV and Western MD and Western PA Allegheny Mtns. Like eyewall said, its just mpisture from the Great Lakes, well primarily Erie transporting the moisture into the mtns and it gets squeezed out in the higher elevations. Thats how Snowshoe gets so much of their snows there, well natural snow it is all mainly lake effect

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2 hours ago, Avdave said:

We actually call it Lake Effect snow back in WV and Western MD and Western PA Allegheny Mtns. Like eyewall said, its just mpisture from the Great Lakes, well primarily Erie transporting the moisture into the mtns and it gets squeezed out in the higher elevations. Thats how Snowshoe gets so much of their snows there, well natural snow it is all mainly lake effect

Yea that’s pretty awesome…. It was never a really heavy Snow but a few times it definitely picked up…. I’d say 24hr total of around 5” or so. It’s so nice too, super powdery and dry 

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 Why is he so smug now? He used to be so cool…. Now it’s like all he wants to do is “I told you so” forecasting like he has something to prove by being First to Say something won’t happen…. Brad, You’ve got 100K followers on Twitter we know you’re reliable man don’t be like that. And as annoying as it is, for the love of god can Mets stop adding “Not a Forecast” or, “Stop Sharing These Deterministic model runs”  like yea no sh*t, I’m sorry if someone is stupid enough to believe a model that says 30” of snow in Augusta GA like the storm a few weeks ago….. well that’s natural selection imo. But it’s like all but Maybe 2-3 Mets just copy and paste each other’s “nothings coming” catch phrases now. Only a few that don’t and 1 is nice enough to post on this board from CLT. I mean be unique man so you’re own thing…… Sorry rant over 

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The problem is, Brad routinely posts vlogs when there is an upcoming system of any significance.  In that video, he explains, in an easy to understand way, the reality of the forecast and what may or may not happen.  However, people do not take the time to watch or listen and instead will believe a fantasy model they see posted. I'm sure this is super frustrating as a broadcast met.  
He is trying to do his best to debunk taking those maps for face value.  I think this is a great way to illustrate it.

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Unless a Superstorm 93 materializes again (1 in a 100 year chance), I don't see snow outside Central and Western NC and VA.  People laugh at climo but we have climo for a reason.  It's the different between snow and 30 degrees in mid January and rain and 35 in mid February.  Yes, you can get a snowstorm down in SC in March but the setup has less and less margin for error the further we go from here.  That's climo in a nutshell.  I'm a snow lover but a realist as well.  The next two weeks do not show any snow here and then you're into March.  It is what it is.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

Unless a Superstorm 93 materializes again (1 in a 100 year chance), I don't see snow outside Central and Western NC and VA.  People laugh at climo but we have climo for a reason.  It's the different between snow and 30 degrees in mid January and rain and 35 in mid February.  Yes, you can get a snowstorm down in SC in March but the setup has less and less margin for error the further we go from here.  That's climo in a nutshell.  I'm a snow lover but a realist as well.  The next two weeks do not show any snow here and then you're into March.  It is what it is.

 

 

Yeah I was mocked after the last fail in the Triangle during that stretch of 3 events for saying its over but it sure looks that way pattern wise.

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16 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The problem is, Brad routinely posts vlogs when there is an upcoming system of any significance.  In that video, he explains, in an easy to understand way, the reality of the forecast and what may or may not happen.  However, people do not take the time to watch or listen and instead will believe a fantasy model they see posted. I'm sure this is super frustrating as a broadcast met.  
He is trying to do his best to debunk taking those maps for face value.  I think this is a great way to illustrate it.

Oh no, so do i…. It’s the way he comes across now days. “I told you so” “see I told you nothing would happen” to me is all….. it’s just pointless smug imo 

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1 hour ago, PantherJustin said:

 Why is he so smug now? He used to be so cool…. Now it’s like all he wants to do is “I told you so” forecasting like he has something to prove by being First to Say something won’t happen…. Brad, You’ve got 100K followers on Twitter we know you’re reliable man don’t be like that. And as annoying as it is, for the love of god can Mets stop adding “Not a Forecast” or, “Stop Sharing These Deterministic model runs”  like yea no sh*t, I’m sorry if someone is stupid enough to believe a model that says 30” of snow in Augusta GA like the storm a few weeks ago….. well that’s natural selection imo. But it’s like all but Maybe 2-3 Mets just copy and paste each other’s “nothings coming” catch phrases now. Only a few that don’t and 1 is nice enough to post on this board from CLT. I mean be unique man so you’re own thing…… Sorry rant over 

I don’t blame him one bit. Dude fields questions all day long generated by pages like “Real OFFICIAL Lizard Lick Wx Page” sharing the GFS 384 hr total accumulation as though it’s gospel. People eat that up and then whine that meteorologists can’t forecast worth a crap when, shocker, it doesn’t come true. 
 

It’s a great way to illustrate that model sharing does not equate to forecasting or meteorology in any way. This ain’t smug. 

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3 hours ago, PantherJustin said:

 Why is he so smug now? He used to be so cool…. Now it’s like all he wants to do is “I told you so” forecasting like he has something to prove by being First to Say something won’t happen…. Brad, You’ve got 100K followers on Twitter we know you’re reliable man don’t be like that. And as annoying as it is, for the love of god can Mets stop adding “Not a Forecast” or, “Stop Sharing These Deterministic model runs”  like yea no sh*t, I’m sorry if someone is stupid enough to believe a model that says 30” of snow in Augusta GA like the storm a few weeks ago….. well that’s natural selection imo. But it’s like all but Maybe 2-3 Mets just copy and paste each other’s “nothings coming” catch phrases now. Only a few that don’t and 1 is nice enough to post on this board from CLT. I mean be unique man so you’re own thing…… Sorry rant over 

I don’t think he is being smug or doing any “I told you so” here. He does this to paint a picture on why model forecasting in most cases doesn’t work, especially in the long range. He is a TV met who probably got constant questions on social media and probably everyday life about the what the GFS or Euro snow map looked like 7-10 days out over the past few months. This helps people understand that those maps are useless, and tbh this board follows those maps heavily.

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Oh no, so do i…. It’s the way he comes across now days. “I told you so” “see I told you nothing would happen” to me is all….. it’s just pointless smug imo 
100% agree with you. I used to enjoy his videos, but he comes off as very smug and unprofessional (and unwatchable) to me.

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The problem is, Brad routinely posts vlogs when there is an upcoming system of any significance.  In that video, he explains, in an easy to understand way, the reality of the forecast and what may or may not happen.  However, people do not take the time to watch or listen and instead will believe a fantasy model they see posted. I'm sure this is super frustrating as a broadcast met.  
He is trying to do his best to debunk taking those maps for face value.  I think this is a great way to illustrate it.

I’m not a met and get pissed off when these morons on FB post the fantasy maps like they are gospel and say things like “not a forecast be we really need to keep an eye on this once in a lifetime opportunity that seems very likely next weekend”. Most people that don’t keep up with the weather like us don’t know any different, they don’t understand that the models can all be wrong 48 hours out let alone 4-6+ days out. I think I get more pissed off about these BS Facebook posts than I actually do with the storms not panning out.
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