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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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Widespread flizzard incoming on the GFS! Seriously, this threat is dead unless some dramatic shift happens bc 1) snowing in the afternoon lightly with surface temps above freezing will not stick and 2) the upper level system though strong is strung out and lacking moisture meaning the ceiling is extremely low even if all available  factors in this setup were favorable. There’s no costal influence and waiting on a lee-side trough to develop enough forcing to squeeze whatever little moisture is available with downsloping and delayed cold to produce accumulating snow is like hoping your high school girlfriend will call you back. When the coastal left the chat a couple days ago this threat died. 

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

That image is showing snow in central NC at 1AM on Monday morning.  The timing is good and that could put down a quick dusting or so.

Honestly that portion of this “event” is most interesting. With the upper level trough and cold pool going directly overhead there would be convective elements and you could get some heavy snow showers. That’s not really shown on other guidance but to me thar has a higher chance of producing accumulating snow than anything with this 

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

That's round two. Don't feel like posting from my phone, but for the main event a sizeable improvement, bringing the energy south. One more shift and Raleigh would be in business. Looking decent up this way for a sloppy inch. 

One more shift and Raleigh would be in business for white rain. Look at your surface temp maps for that portion, everyone’s above freezing (even into Virginia) and rates look light. 

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5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One more shift and Raleigh would be in business for white rain. Look at your surface temp maps for that portion, everyone’s above freezing (even into Virginia) and rates look light. 

I agree that temps would be an issue, but I think it's possible (although perhaps unlikely) that rates would win out. Temps fall to just below freezing in the heaviest bands in Greensboro. I could see Raleigh falling into the 33-34 range given heavy enough precip, if that band can manage to hold together past the Triad

 

It's a long shot, but my main point is that it's a small step in the right direction for those of us in the Piedmont, towards some fun nowcasting

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32 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

This is what I was alluding to. I’m so far on the nw fringe of the forum no one can really relate. Still a 2-5” type ordeal here but it’s still on an island with that. 

I’m not sold this is an event even your way. This is a very fragile setup for snow much less accumulating snow. RGEM depicts how these usually end up and it shows serious temperature issues. No one’s going to hop on board a system on this forum where only a few locations have any chance to see accumulation in NC and VA with a very low high end even if all things break correct. No disrespect to you fringe folks, this just isn’t a good event! 

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38 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m not sold this is an event even your way. This is a very fragile setup for snow much less accumulating snow. RGEM depicts how these usually end up and it shows serious temperature issues. No one’s going to hop on board a system on this forum where only a few locations have any chance to see accumulation in NC and VA with a very low high end even if all things break correct. No disrespect to you fringe folks, this just isn’t a good event! 

I’m def not discounting any of that by any means. I agree with you for sure. My expectations are below tempered like basically expecting the grass to get coated lol so no disrespect taken whatsoever. I thoroughly enjoy this forum and the people that are in it. Your posts are always very fact based

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23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The way the long range is looking, this might be the last threat of the winter for piedmont areas. Too bad its look so paltry. 

Yea I gotta agree…. Im

NEVER that guy, but it’s about that time lol I hate any heat….it’s 63 here today and it’s already making me wanna begin my preparation for yet another miserable Carolina Summer. I’d give anything to live in Minneapolis or Somewhere it’s just never above  75 I’ve lived here 30 yrs and hate every minute from March-October lmao 

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22 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Yea I gotta agree…. Im

NEVER that guy, but it’s about that time lol I hate any heat….it’s 63 here today and it’s already making me wanna begin my preparation for yet another miserable Carolina Summer. I’d give anything to live in Minneapolis or Somewhere it’s just never above  75 I’ve lived here 30 yrs and hate every minute from March-October lmao 

You live in the wrong region my friend… 

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24 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Yea I gotta agree…. Im

NEVER that guy, but it’s about that time lol I hate any heat….it’s 63 here today and it’s already making me wanna begin my preparation for yet another miserable Carolina Summer. I’d give anything to live in Minneapolis or Somewhere it’s just never above  75 I’ve lived here 30 yrs and hate every minute from March-October lmao 

Good Lord man, I wouldn't trade Carolina weather with ANYONE!  And I've lived here all 51 years of my life..

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Yea I gotta agree…. Im
NEVER that guy, but it’s about that time lol I hate any heat….it’s 63 here today and it’s already making me wanna begin my preparation for yet another miserable Carolina Summer. I’d give anything to live in Minneapolis or Somewhere it’s just never above  75 I’ve lived here 30 yrs and hate every minute from March-October lmao 
I've lived here in Wolf Laurel since May 2017 and the temp at my house hasn't climbed over 80 once. Most summer days at this elevation top out in the low 70's. And we average about 50" of snow annually. There's places in the southeast that you can find what you're looking for without giving up sweet tea lol. I lived south of Columbia for 25 years, so I know how you feel.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk



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1 hour ago, PantherJustin said:

Yea I gotta agree…. Im

NEVER that guy, but it’s about that time lol I hate any heat….it’s 63 here today and it’s already making me wanna begin my preparation for yet another miserable Carolina Summer. I’d give anything to live in Minneapolis or Somewhere it’s just never above  75 I’ve lived here 30 yrs and hate every minute from March-October lmao 

Agree 100000% I love thunderstorms but abhor the heat and humidity.  I would do well at about 5000ft in our mountains. I want to always have a breeze with days no warmer then 68 and summer nights around 50. That's my perfect summer wx.

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