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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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I find it rather comical it’s 2022 and we’re basically 4 days out and that’s what we get out of two of the biggest models to try and figure out as to whether you get nothing or 7” for my specific area. Someone correct me if I’m wrong (other than last system where GFS totally sh*t the bed) but the trend has been for the models to start to gravitate toward the gfs. 

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7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I find it rather comical it’s 2022 and we’re basically 4 days out and that’s what we get out of two of the biggest models to try and figure out as to whether you get nothing or 7” for my specific area. Someone correct me if I’m wrong (other than last system where GFS totally sh*t the bed) but the trend has been for the models to start to gravitate toward the gfs. 

It is pretty bad that we're 4 days out and they are that different. Makes you wonder why they are that different, and why one of them is so off. But really all of them are off like this at some point when it comes to winter weather around here. Not sure if its climate change and the models can't account for it, or if the programing they use is just off. 

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10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I find it rather comical it’s 2022 and we’re basically 4 days out and that’s what we get out of two of the biggest models to try and figure out as to whether you get nothing or 7” for my specific area. Someone correct me if I’m wrong (other than last system where GFS totally sh*t the bed) but the trend has been for the models to start to gravitate toward the gfs. 

I think the GFS did the best with the storm where we actually got decent snow here. But it was bad with the last threat. 

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I think the big issue with guidance is the current pattern we’re in. With no blocking and short waves flying around like mosquitoes I think guidance struggles and what you’re seeing mostly in mid-range model outputs has to do with seemingly subtle differences in timing in short range. Progressive patterns are notoriously hard to model and that’s why I think this season has had wild swings until the last minute

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  • buckeyefan1 changed the title to Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022
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