midatlanticweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Winter wx here is perplexing. I'm starting to no longer care about anything in the Fall. Even enso. I mean sure, mod Nino ftw but for whatever reason, our good winter periods are compressed and busy and they can happen in any year. Odds favor certain years but I've seen enough counter moves over the last 15 years to temper any and all expectations of anything beyond a couple weeks. Eta: important addition to my post... big storm setups are different and they are the holy grail of why we do this. Good setups can be easy to identify weeks or even a month in advance. I'll track TF out of every single one from long range. Beyond that I'm officially in chips fall mode prob forever This is so true Bob! Thanks for posting. I mean, I was all doom and gloom, and only expecting to see cold and snow maybe in February if we were lucky! This winter is now better than I expected. Additionally, I thought I was right while sweltering in December. I do suspect we have another warmer stretch at some point before maybe one last hurrah to make winter last a bit longer after the pattern changes.. but I can hope it doesn't change! I like winter to feel and be like winter that I want! Today is that kind of winter.. I know I live in the wrong part of the world to get this every year, but it makes even smaller events special. ALSO, great to see you pop in here some and comment! I learned so much from you over the last several years!! You may have thought from a productive side of things this was all a waste, but for weenies on this board, your knowledge and input were invaluable and I thank you very much! That probably did not help your paycheck, or maybe even relationships since this was such a time suck.. but thank you for pouring it into this board! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Getting more impressive every run. Cross-polar flow and quick moving disturbances. Depending on whether we can put down some snow cover will determine if we have a wintery landscape to go along with the frigid temperatures. Any snow cover would certainly enhance even lower temperatures. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 JB is obviously all over the rest of this month but thinks a warm up is in store for February. I'd be ok with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, IronTy said: JB is obviously all over the rest of this month but thinks a warm up is in store for February. I'd be ok with that. We could all be above climo (with some luck) in the next 2 weeks. If that were to happen, I’m just eyeing February up as a gravy month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, Scraff said: We could all be above climo (with some luck) in the next 2 weeks. If that were to happen, I’m just eyeing February up as a gravy month. Just given how time periods usually line up, if we score a couple times between now and the end of the month, I can absolutely imagine a situation in which events would be hard to come by in much of February. I wouldn't give up at that point, though, as I could then see things lining up once more for a couple weeks as February turns to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Is Roundy still calling for the pattern to breakdown mid January? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 High pressure over over SE Idaho and a scooting low pressure system to our South. This time period remains of interest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Ok, who broke the gfs? Who did it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok, who broke the gfs? Who did it? Ji….he was looking for the back edge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Ggem was gonna smoke us as the run ended. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 looks like the southern stream gets involved again by mid-month on both the gfs and canadian. guess we need to see how dominant the northern stream is during that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ggem was gonna smoke us as the run ended. dang man...why did the run have to end? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Too bad they don't have a GGEM-EX like the old DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Where did all of our model snow go? Clockwise from upper left (18 UT yesterday, 00 UT today, 06 UT today, 12 UT today) Through 12 UT next Friday; GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ggem was gonna smoke us as the run ended. You don’t think that would just slide off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ggem was gonna smoke us as the run ended. Did I see a phase happening at 240? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, mattie g said: Did I see a phase happening at 240? Yes. That was a beautiful evolution to what would have been a major east coast storm. Can see the two separate shortwaves out west here 24hours before that map posted above: 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 The gfs has a system next week that I really like the look of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Where did all of our model snow go? Clockwise from upper left (18 UT yesterday, 00 UT today, 06 UT today, 12 UT today) Through 12 UT next Friday; GFS Are we looking at the same weather model? The 12z GFS is a dream in the extended. All of that snow predicted on the first two frames fell yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The gfs has a system next week that I really like the look of As depicted that would that be what ya call "overrunning"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, chris21 said: Are we looking at the same weather model? The 12z GFS is a dream in the extended. All of that snow predicted on the first two frames fell yesterday. Good point - bad post by me. Why is the 12z GFS a dream in the extended? Verbatim, most of our area gets ~1" of snow during the next 384 hours. I assume you like the upper air pattern etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Good point - bad post by me. Why is the 12z GFS a dream in the extended? Verbatim, most of our area gets ~1" of snow during the next 384 hours. I assume you like the upper air pattern etc. again, I’m not sure you’re looking at the latest 12z GFS run. I see far more than an inch accumulated in the next 384 hours and no fewer than three distinct threats with cold air entrenched essentially throughout the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, chris21 said: again, I’m not sure you’re looking at the latest 12z GFS run. I see far more than an inch accumulated in the next 384 hours and no fewer than three distinct threats with cold air entrenched essentially throughout the run. This Sunday, next Friday timeframe and again around the 18th and 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 36 minutes ago, Ji said: dang man...why did the run have to end? It doesn’t matter because it’s day 10 and whatever it showed you can’t take it exactly as is so that’s good enough. But we know how it was heading. That trough digging about to go neutral over the miss valley as the system in New England departs leaving room to amplify up the coast and fresh arctic cold in place with the rain snow line in Georgia to start as the WAA gets going. It was going to end well. Use your imagination how well. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Good point - bad post by me. Why is the 12z GFS a dream in the extended? Verbatim, most of our area gets ~1" of snow during the next 384 hours. I assume you like the upper air pattern etc. Don't concern yourself with snowfall maps The snowfall map (at least on TT) isn't yet out to 384 The pattern is fantastic. Look at that first and foremost and let the chips fall. There's reason to be excited (tempered excitement, of course) by it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Don't concern yourself with snowfall maps The snowfall map (at least on TT) isn't yet out to 384 The pattern is fantastic. Look at that first and foremost and let the chips fall. There's reason to be excited (tempered excitement, of course) by it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 41 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Where did all of our model snow go? It’s on my lawn 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You don’t think that would just slide off the coast? 38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yes. That was a beautiful evolution to what would have been a major east coast storm. Can see the two separate shortwaves out west here 24hours before that map posted above: What he said! If you just look at the NS over New England and how far south the baroclinic boundary is you might think so but the NS and SS are phasing and the trough is digging pretty far west, about to go neutral near the Miss River and the flow is relaxing ahead of it. My guess is that leads to an absolute bomb up the east coast. Probably a very high impact and large expansive storm due to a deep STJ moisture fetch aided by the warm gulf then the Atlantic and used to maximum impact by a fully mature phased cyclone. That’s the kind of storm with a huge win zone between the high ratio powder on the NW side to the high qpfs closer to the boundary and the fact that even places that might change to ice/rain north of NC had to go through a long period of WAA precip first. The kind of storm we aren’t having to worry about sharp edges and exactly where a band sets up to eek out a few inches. Alas it’s a day 10 op run so enjoy it and imagine living the dream then move on. @WxUSAF feel free to correct me but that was my impression of where that was headed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 -NAO, -AO and the PV trapped on our side. A lot to like about what’s to come as we end the month. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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