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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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18 minutes ago, Ji said:
20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
I'll buy what the RGEM is selling
prateptype.conus.png
prateptype.conus.png

I thought that was the 12z euro lol

Not sure why all the rgem love...I thought the last 2 runs of the RGEM were significantly better.  The 0z RGEM was a LOT less amplified and weaker...I know the 18z and 12z cut off before the main panels were visible...and maybe that's why, but imo it was headed towards a pretty big event across the area.  This solution is definitely better for places south of DC though...more amplified in this setup could mean mixing south of DC...but for places DC north I thought 0z was worse than 18 and 12z.  The NAM was a significant improvement though.  Either way minor adjustments at this range are pretty meaningless.  I also think this setup has more potential to trend north at the end.  Today's event had no chance to gain latitude with the flow over top of it.  This next system has room to climb the coast.  SO long as we still have a healthy wave and it's not squashed to nothing entering the final 48 hours I expect a trend towards slightly more amplified in the final 24-36 hours. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Even if its a crap model its still better to have it look good than bad...even the NAM can sometimes be onto something if it's occasionally handling a detail better than the other guidance.  We've seen it happen.  People shouldn't have to apologize for mentioning a piece of evidence...even if its not something we weight as heavily as like a GFS or Euro run. 

This is the type of system that can have very high ratios somewhere on the cold side of the boundary.  There can also be duel snow maxes with these types of systems, one max near the developing coastal and another further inland near the NS wave along the arctic boundary. 

This miller b has a southern stream component that starts in the gulf coast.  It's a miller b because there is some interaction and a jump to a coastal associated with the NS system but usually, and I do say usually because there can be situations where a messy transfer screws us with these also, but usually these are not the type that leave us really screwed while dumping just north of us.  Don't get me wrong, further northeast will do better...but its typically a more gradual increase with a miller b that originates to our south like this. 

Now am I imagining things or are we seeing the southern stream wake up just a tad? (even if it's temporary I hope we can take advantage of it!)

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not sure why all the rgem love...I thought the last 2 runs of the RGEM were significantly better.  The 0z RGEM was a LOT less amplified and weaker...I know the 18z and 12z cut off before the main panels were visible...and maybe that's why, but imo it was headed towards a pretty big event across the area.  This solution is definitely better for places south of DC though...more amplified in this setup could mean mixing south of DC...but for places DC north I thought 0z was worse than 18 and 12z.  The NAM was a significant improvement though.  Either way minor adjustments at this range are pretty meaningless.  I also think this setup has more potential to trend north at the end.  Today's event had no chance to gain latitude with the flow over top of it.  This next system has room to climb the coast.  SO long as we still have a healthy wave and it's not squashed to nothing entering the final 48 hours I expect a trend towards slightly more amplified in the final 24-36 hours. 

I'm fine with the 0z RGEM.  I'm not looking for Jan 2016

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now am I imagining things or are we seeing the southern stream wake up just a tad? (even if it's temporary I hope we can take advantage of it!)

I am not sure how much is a true STJ as much as we've had a couple mid latitude SW's dig far enough south to tap into the gulf which is a raging inferno right now.  All that warm water to our south and east is a problem with temps...but when we do get cold enough can be a real advantage also in terms of adding potential to each wave.  Some of the precip output over VA and southern MD in just 12 hours from a relatively weak low pressure system earlier today was pretty amazing.  Got to think the warm gulf and atlantic aided in that some. 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm fine with the 0z RGEM.  I'm not looking for Jan 2016

Me either...but this has 4-8" type potential if we can get a slightly more amplified system.  Weaker and we run less risk of mixing issues but we also lose the higher potential and are looking at more of a 2-4" type deal.  Given the fact I have had less that 1" snowfall total this winter I am willing to play with the fire to get a possible bigger outcome.  I also am well aware that my location makes that gamble much more appetizing than for your location so I don't begrudge you rooting for the "safer" bet. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I was thinking he meant north like into PA or something.  My bad

Yea I was just more or less basing it on the confluence over the Midwest and the slight amplification of the precip shield that developed over northwestern MS (just to add my two cents :))

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I was thinking he meant north like into PA or something.  My bad

Isn't he pretty far south?  He might be rooting for the extremely squashed previous gfs solutions...if you're down in central or southern VA frankly thats your only chance, a more amplified wave will run north of them. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Isn't he pretty far south?  He might be rooting for the extremely squashed previous gfs solutions...if you're down in central or southern VA frankly thats your only chance, a more amplified wave will run north of them. 

Yea down in ROA. Im ok with the RGEM/GFS runs at 0z. 2-4/3-6 ordeal wouldn’t hear a complaint from me. 

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When people say “north” I’m assuming they are looking at the surface. If anything this run at h5 is actually a tad further south (heights).

But the question I wanted to pose is anybody worried that this actually does trend north, as in too far? The reason I ask is that ns systems are notoriously modeled too far south at range. Just curious what you guys think.

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GFS is seeing the duel max idea I mentioned as a possibility with this type of system. 

duelaxis.thumb.png.938df6a466ad4811267f3e3110763c90.png

Obviously the max along the coast looks more impressive but that more inland max will have VERY high ratios and some surprisingly high snowfall numbers compared to what you would expect.  In between is where you don't want to be...

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

When people say “north” I’m assuming they are looking at the surface. If anything this run at h5 is actually a tad further south (heights).

But the question I wanted to pose is anybody worried that this actually does trend north, as in too far? The reason I ask is that ns systems are notoriously modeled too far south at range. Just curious what you guys think.

IMO there are 3 options on how this could evolve.  You're right the NS wave is pretty far north.  But the southern wave is pretty far south. 

Option 1: The end up too far apart and the southern wave slides off to our south and the northern wave misses to the NW and we end up in a dead zone in between.

Option 2: They consolidate and phase more into a stronger system but that process happens far enough east for the system to transfer to the coast and bomb out from there.  This is our "win" scenario

Option 3: They consolidate too early and the system tracks to far NW. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GFS is seeing the duel max idea I mentioned as a possibility with this type of system. 

duelaxis.thumb.png.938df6a466ad4811267f3e3110763c90.png

Obviously the max along the coast looks more impressive but that more inland max will have VERY high ratios and some surprisingly high snowfall numbers compared to what you would expect.  In between is where you don't want to be...

Color me shocked....and pale green.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

IMO there are 3 options on how this could evolve.  You're right the NS wave is pretty far north.  But the southern wave is pretty far south. 

Option 1: The end up too far apart and the southern wave slides off to our south and the northern wave misses to the NW and we end up in a dead zone in between.

Option 2: They consolidate and phase more into a stronger system but that process happens far enough east for the system to transfer to the coast and bomb out from there.  This is our "win" scenario

Option 3: They consolidate too early and the system tracks to far NW. 

Those ns shortwaves are notorious for moving north as you approach. There was a system in 2011 that you kept warning about that did just that. And it did it in the last 24 hours. Not trying to be negative at all, just cautious with this setup.

Your option 3 doesn’t scare me as much as option 1. A system that is scooting to far nw might still throw some front end goodness at us.

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2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Color me shocked....and pale green.

Dude you live in one of the dryest spots on the east coast!!!

RainFig3-1024x576.thumb.jpg.d39ccc1542fdc6b955cee0e5e4ffe955.jpg

On top of that its obvious from your posts that you live in a local meso scale oragraphically induced minimum within the larger regional minimum.  But you live in the shadow effect of the 4,500 foot Allegheny ridge in WV, one of the highest areas of consistent elevation in the apps.  You're in one of the worst shadow effect regions there is in the entire east coast.  But you expect that to suddenly stop or something?  Any system with a westerly flow is going to dry up to some extent in your area.  Unless you find a way to get rid of those ridges to your west.  The only setup where you typically will do better that other areas in our region wrt precip is with a slow moving coastal where you get some easterly component to the flow and it banks up against the ridges to your west.  Storms like 2016 and the first 2 in 2009-10 are where you can do very well.  But weaker systems coming from the west and southwest...well you KNOW how thats going to go. 

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