Brasiluvsnow Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 only down 1 degree at 41 now in new city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 7 hours ago, bluewave said: You might have to find some old news articles. There was another ice storm in January 1978 along the Long Island South Shore . It wasn’t so bad in Long Beach with the temperature around 32°. But there was about .5 to .75 of ice along Sunrise highway were it was 30°. Long Beach had smaller ice storms only around .25 on Valentines Day 2007 and 2-2-11. http://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Everyone buckle up for deep winter, late February and March. Just read JB declared winter is dead in 3 weeks, said the MJO is going into phase 4 and it’s all over. This means a March, 2018 redux is coming….. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, wdrag said: Quick post: NCEP EMC knows about the GFS problems handling sleet and snow mixes as all snow at 10 to 1. They also know that this biases GFS snow depth and make the boundary layer too cold (also this mornings busted temps on the se edge of the freezing rain). May also be affecting the FV3 shorter range model seen in TT. All this in an 11AM WPC-EMC meeting yesterday. When it gets fixed? Do not know. They did not have enough ice event samples in 2019-20 to witness this as problem for the recently implemented GFS upgrade. Next: I like the pattern for Feb and if the SSW is real, could be a fun and interesting end to winter. All I know is that I won't end up with the 14.4" of snow so far this winter and could see a doubling or tripling by April 15 (especially if SSW) to get me to 40"? I suppose that's a long shot but Feb pattern and possible SSW offer a little hope. My concern is that the EPS weeklies do not seem to be doing well after 2 weeks, and I do not see a huge warmup in the east until we consistently lose the ridge in AK. Take a look at Feb 7-8: Some have given up, just as it's starting to look better. Could be NC to BOS near I95 period of snow or maybe a bit more than that? The 500MB pattern imo favors more events along the east coast with the cold trough straddling 80-85W for much of the month. As long as we keep getting 1045-55MB highs moving se out of W Canada, there is hope. Do NOT want to replace that consistently with low pressure. Will post ice accums when its over in the thread. Gotta work and expecting/hoping for a healthy grandchild #2 at Noon. Congratulations Walt, hope all are well and healthy! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 32 pages for rain 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: 32 pages for rain This is how its going to be otherwise no one would ever come to these subforums lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: This is how its going to be otherwise no one would ever come to these subforums lol I have a family member to take off at 629P LGA. I advised yesterday to keep the plan and not cancel. Now I may regret that advise. Temp 32F at 3P there will only go down with intermittent on-going precip through about 11PM I think. This means deicing the aircraft and getting it off the ground right away if I read the precip and temp cards correctly. So the thread is of value and you have alot more info on how model problems develop and where errors can occur. 33 and rain is turning to ice for aircraft...which also prefer no long duration low level holds in this mixed thermal qpf environment. Wait til sundown when solar insolation disappears and the ground temp drops 2F and suddenly UNTREATED surface ice up quickly like the trees are during the day (Solar influence minimal for non leaved trees) . It's interesting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Does this actually sound like a great vacation or is that just me? https://nypost.com/2022/02/04/california-couple-and-their-dog-rescued-from-remote-cabin/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Dumping snow in lake placid still. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, tdp146 said: Does this actually sound like a great vacation or is that just me? https://nypost.com/2022/02/04/california-couple-and-their-dog-rescued-from-remote-cabin/ Apparently they liked it or they wouldn't have waited two months to run out of food before calling for help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Dumping snow in lake placid still. Jealous. Haven't been there since October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 31 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Dumping snow in lake placid still. Was just up there but had to leave before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 6:25 PM, LibertyBell said: Proves my point that 20+ should be considered HECS. You've had 2 of them in that period, I've had 3 (I didn't have Feb 2013 in that list and you didn't have PD2 and Jan 2016, my number 1 storm, in your 20 inch list.) We’ve had 7 here in SW suffolk since the 90s, based on trained spotter reports in the public information statements from upton: 1996, PDII, Dec 2009, Feb 2013, Jan 2015, Jan 2016, and now Jan 2022. I guess we’ve been really lucky or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: Jealous. Haven't been there since October. We try to come up a few times a year at least. If it wasnt still in NY this would 100% be my retirement spot. Its still on the list though. 53 minutes ago, tdp146 said: Was just up there but had to leave before the storm We got up here yesterday right before the worst of it. Our driveway of our rental house is a disaster, had to give up halfway up the driveway. Oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 T looks OK here for the next 30 days average. There are not even any 5-Day BN periods contained within span. It is gradually warming overall, especially west of the Mississippi. However it did look like BN precipitation through the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 8 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Congratulations Walt, hope all are well and healthy! 2 hours ago, wdrag said: I have a family member to take off at 629P LGA. I advised yesterday to keep the plan and not cancel. Now I may regret that advise. Temp 32F at 3P there will only go down with intermittent on-going precip through about 11PM I think. This means deicing the aircraft and getting it off the ground right away if I read the precip and temp cards correctly. So the thread is of value and you have alot more info on how model problems develop and where errors can occur. 33 and rain is turning to ice for aircraft...which also prefer no long duration low level holds in this mixed thermal qpf environment. Wait til sundown when solar insolation disappears and the ground temp drops 2F and suddenly UNTREATED surface ice up quickly like the trees are during the day (Solar influence minimal for non leaved trees) . It's interesting. Good evening Walt, Irish. I hope to live long enough to read your grandchildren posts along side of yours. Don can do the stats on the age/probabilities for me. Health, happiness and peace for you and your growing family. As always …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, rclab said: Good evening Walt, Irish. I hope to live long enough to read your grandchildren posts along side of yours. Don can do the stats on the age/probabilities for me. Health, happiness and peace for you and your growing family. As always …. Good evening Sir! My grandson is 2 and with the way kids grow up nowadays he’ll probably be posting on here in about three years or so, I’m confident you’ll be around. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 19 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Good evening Sir! My grandson is 2 and with the way kids grow up nowadays he’ll probably be posting on here in about three years or so, I’m confident you’ll be around. Thank you for that confidence. R in the RCL stands for Rich. I’d feel privileged if you called me that. My four grandchildren call me Poppy. I don’t mind even though it makes me feel like a bagel sometimes. Stay well, safe, warm and inside tonight. As always … 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 8 hours ago, wdrag said: I have a family member to take off at 629P LGA. I advised yesterday to keep the plan and not cancel. Now I may regret that advise. Temp 32F at 3P there will only go down with intermittent on-going precip through about 11PM I think. This means deicing the aircraft and getting it off the ground right away if I read the precip and temp cards correctly. So the thread is of value and you have alot more info on how model problems develop and where errors can occur. 33 and rain is turning to ice for aircraft...which also prefer no long duration low level holds in this mixed thermal qpf environment. Wait til sundown when solar insolation disappears and the ground temp drops 2F and suddenly UNTREATED surface ice up quickly like the trees are during the day (Solar influence minimal for non leaved trees) . It's interesting. Especially with the long duration of the ice, it doesn't even have to be heavy, this light glaze like precip is the most treacherous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Especially with the long duration of the ice, it doesn't even have to be heavy, this light glaze like precip is the most treacherous The flight left the gate 10 min late and in the air about 55 min late... had to be the ongoing hazardous conditions and necessary larger separations of aircraft in unsavory ice-snow conditions for safe take off-landings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 My fiancee wants to look at houses in Connecticut this summer so we are gonna go and check it out. I'm trying to see how it would work if I can transfer or I have to start all over with my job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 My fiancee wants to look at houses in Connecticut this summer so we are gonna go and check it out. I'm trying to see how it would work if I can transfer or I have to start all over with my job.Morris County is nice, too!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, North and West said: Morris County is nice, too! . Oswego would be my dream location 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Oswego would be my dream location Have to think of economic opportunities, too.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Oswego would be my dream location Go a little north of Oswego itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 @rclab Good day Rich, how’d did the “postage stamp” make out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Oswego would be my dream location No noreasters there. If you're looking at CT there are some very snowy locations in CT with elevation (like Norfolk) or you can go farther east and catch the late blooming ones but don't go east of about New Haven County or Chester. The further away from the Sound the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 6 hours ago, North and West said: Have to think of economic opportunities, too. . Maybe Syracuse? A nice college town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The op Euro at day 9….what could possibly go wrong lmfaooo How's it feel living rent free in so many heads? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 5 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: @rclab Good day Rich, how’d did the “postage stamp” make out? Good evening, Irish. Akin to my virility this is all thats left. Since it’s my postage stamp I can safely say and frosty agrees, snow pack cancelled. Stay well and warm tonight. As always … 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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