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December 2021


MJO812
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33 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Positive snow depth change all related to the 24th-25th... one cycle GFS change... just aint easy to rely on single member guidance beyond a few days.  This is about 6-8 days away and big snow on 06z cycle for MA has shifted north on this 12z/19 GFS cycle.

 

 

While no piece of guidance excels at snowfall forecasts beyond 120 hrs, the GFS has been really struggling. It has had numerous snowy forecasts beyond day 5 since late November that never verified. The upgraded Euro has been doing much better with very little snow in the forecast. So we may need the Euro and EPS on our side for a more realistic chance of snow.

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50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I would take any mjo forecast that far in advance with a grain of salt. Even you have said take it two weeks at a time 

Agree. I've been monitoring this mjo since November. That's when hints were showing up. Gefs has done slightly better than the Eps during that time for whatever reason IMHO. Eps lost the signal at times. Neither has been perfect. Even 2 weeks out is a challenge. When they're on the same page though, that adds confidence. But even then lol

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

High temperatures usually beat expectations when we have a deep trough over the Western US. The longer range forecasts for Christmas underestimated the strength of the SE Ridge. But you could see the risk of SE Ridge from the strong -PNA even though the models didn’t show it 10 days ago.
 

New run

5DE56A17-8B3B-4BDD-8B89-546CBCEC825B.thumb.png.5c34838207ad456469e0ef7faeeebadb.png

Old run


30620634-390E-4D94-9F9B-5EC909A0A5C5.thumb.png.0fc9a520d7fb8c3ae1961adc8418256a.png

 

Christmas week corrected warmer big time. Deep -PNA at work 

 

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15 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Here it is, this is the pattern we're not very fond of. But, the PV isn't really fond of it either. An amplified version of this would be interesting. 

1049012512_gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_59(1).thumb.png.1e79eb564b244c0fdcecb50996d24bc9.png

I don't see why we can't get overrunning/changeover events with that look.

Storm passes pulls down cool air they next storm comes and we get couple inches before changeover.

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8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Sure looks like the MJO is stuck in phase 7 on the GEFS. That's what I was seeing earlier too. Eps hasn't done that quite yet regardless of what the RMM plots are showing. So the GEFS has that pattern lingering. But again, if that happens, what is it going to do to the PV?

The MJO has to be messing with the models 

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16 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Sure looks like the MJO is stuck in phase 7 on the GEFS. That's what I was seeing earlier too. Eps hasn't done that quite yet regardless of what the RMM plots are showing. So the GEFS has that pattern lingering. But again, if that happens, what is it going to do to the PV?

MJO is just part of the equation...........

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