Allsnow Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 37 and after the recent warmth it feels chilly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: That’s why getting a favorable Pacific is so important for our area. I'll take a good pacific over Atlantic blocking any day. That's why 13/14 & 14/15 were some of my favorite winters ever. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 37 and after the recent warmth it feels chilly Front going through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 33 minutes ago, wdrag said: Positive snow depth change all related to the 24th-25th... one cycle GFS change... just aint easy to rely on single member guidance beyond a few days. This is about 6-8 days away and big snow on 06z cycle for MA has shifted north on this 12z/19 GFS cycle. While no piece of guidance excels at snowfall forecasts beyond 120 hrs, the GFS has been really struggling. It has had numerous snowy forecasts beyond day 5 since late November that never verified. The upgraded Euro has been doing much better with very little snow in the forecast. So we may need the Euro and EPS on our side for a more realistic chance of snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 cutter on xmas? Cant even make this up… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: cutter on xmas? Cant even make this up… Bring on the warmth! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: cutter on xmas? Cant even make this up… why not? december has warmed dramatically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 go look at random decembers in central park from the past. it's ridiculous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 50 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I would take any mjo forecast that far in advance with a grain of salt. Even you have said take it two weeks at a time Agree. I've been monitoring this mjo since November. That's when hints were showing up. Gefs has done slightly better than the Eps during that time for whatever reason IMHO. Eps lost the signal at times. Neither has been perfect. Even 2 weeks out is a challenge. When they're on the same page though, that adds confidence. But even then lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 winter officially hasn't even began lol but seriously it's been so warm the global warming is really taking over now. i wonder how warm it's going to get in say 30 years if we don't change our course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: why not? december has warmed dramatically We had December highs in the teens back in the 2000s. Now getting below 40F is difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: winter officially hasn't even began lol but seriously it's been so warm the global warming is really taking over now. i wonder how warm it's going to get in say 30 years if we don't change our course! Winter starts on the 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Winter starts on the 1st 1st of what ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 My fear is the next super el nino. Whenever that is. Global temp spikes accompany those. We really don't need that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: How come snowman didn't post this ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 22 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: winter officially hasn't even began lol but seriously it's been so warm the global warming is really taking over now. i wonder how warm it's going to get in say 30 years if we don't change our course! What does “changing course” entail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Here it is, this is the pattern we're not very fond of. But, the PV isn't really fond of it either. An amplified version of this would be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 hours ago, wdrag said: I've seen a lot of references to the fast Pacific flow. Can someone point me to a chart that shows the previous 4 weeks of anomaly that is referenced. 200MB? 500MB? Thank you. Here’s what I could find: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only long range MJO certainty in recent years has been it’s propensity to linger longer in the unfavorable phases for us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here’s what I could find: Thanks Don... ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: High temperatures usually beat expectations when we have a deep trough over the Western US. The longer range forecasts for Christmas underestimated the strength of the SE Ridge. But you could see the risk of SE Ridge from the strong -PNA even though the models didn’t show it 10 days ago. New run Old run Christmas week corrected warmer big time. Deep -PNA at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 32 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 1st of what ? Meteorological Winter begins December 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 15 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Here it is, this is the pattern we're not very fond of. But, the PV isn't really fond of it either. An amplified version of this would be interesting. I don't see why we can't get overrunning/changeover events with that look. Storm passes pulls down cool air they next storm comes and we get couple inches before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I don't see why we can't get overrunning/changeover events with that look. Storm passes pulls down cool air they next storm comes and we get couple inches before changeover. I'm not saying it's impossible to, it's just not the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 Models keep digging the trough in the west. It's going to be hard to get snow in the east with that even with a negative NAO. Hopefully the models are wrong and they show colder outcomes in future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Sure looks like the MJO is stuck in phase 7 on the GEFS. That's what I was seeing earlier too. Eps hasn't done that quite yet regardless of what the RMM plots are showing. So the GEFS has that pattern lingering. But again, if that happens, what is it going to do to the PV? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2021 Author Share Posted December 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Sure looks like the MJO is stuck in phase 7 on the GEFS. That's what I was seeing earlier too. Eps hasn't done that quite yet regardless of what the RMM plots are showing. So the GEFS has that pattern lingering. But again, if that happens, what is it going to do to the PV? The MJO has to be messing with the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 16 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Sure looks like the MJO is stuck in phase 7 on the GEFS. That's what I was seeing earlier too. Eps hasn't done that quite yet regardless of what the RMM plots are showing. So the GEFS has that pattern lingering. But again, if that happens, what is it going to do to the PV? MJO is just part of the equation........... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: MJO is just part of the equation........... A very large part... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 53 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: What does “changing course” entail? meaning we can't change the course. we won't be able to revert the global warming effect. it's going to happen very soon. i think we can still change course right now but in say 30 years we are f'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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