Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,116
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SCseminole
    Newest Member
    SCseminole
    Joined

wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

The last 3 days of November are averaging  39degs.(34/44), or -3.

Month to date is  47.2[-1.3].       November will end at  46.4[-1.6].

Reached 40 here yesterday.

Today:  42-45, wind w., wet snow ending early, clearing late.      First 10 days of December  35/51 = 43, or +3.

36*(72%RH) here at 6am., wet snow, street wet, cars some white showing.{was 34 a few hours ago}.      39* at 9am.     40* at 10am.          42* at Noon.        45* at 3pm.       47* at 4pm.      42* at 9pm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and cold. Some snow flurries and snow showers are possible, especially this morning. The areas with the highest chance of measurable snow are to the north and west of Newark, New York City, and Bridgeport. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 43°

Newark: 46°

Philadelphia: 45°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 49.7°; 15-Year: 50.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 50.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.3°; 15-Year: 51.8°

The cool weather will continue through the remainder of November.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

High of only 39 yesterday at the park. That’s a impressive high for late November 

That’s an error caused by the delayed leaf drop keeping thr ASOS in the shade. Even HPN made it to 40°. The temperatures won’t become reliable until the dense canopy finally drops  all its leaves. 
 

EWR 43

NYC 39

JFK 41

LGA 42

HPN 40

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s an error caused by the delayed leaf drop keeping thr ASOS in the shade. Even HPN made it to 40°. The temperatures won’t become reliable until the dense canopy finally drops  all its leaves. 
 

EWR 43

NYC 39

JFK 41

LGA 42

HPN 40

Chris, have you seen the updated mjo charts? Not sure how accurate the gefs bc is. Thought it looked decent so far

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s an error caused by the delayed leaf drop keeping thr ASOS in the shade. Even HPN made it to 40°. The temperatures won’t become reliable until the dense canopy finally drops  all its leaves. 
 

EWR 43

NYC 39

JFK 41

LGA 42

HPN 40

lol thats awesome this is what it would be in the summer

EWR 93

NYC 89

JFK 91

LGA 92

HPN 90

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s an error caused by the delayed leaf drop keeping thr ASOS in the shade. Even HPN made it to 40°. The temperatures won’t become reliable until the dense canopy finally drops  all its leaves. 
 

EWR 43

NYC 39

JFK 41

LGA 42

HPN 40

What is the current leaf situation in Central Park? You keep saying this and you get a bunch of people to like it.  I don’t see a thick canopy of leaves anywhere… Let alone enough to throw a temperature.

 

Has anybody actually been in the park and observed these conditions?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

What is the current leaf situation in Central Park? You keep saying this and you get a bunch of people to like it.  I don’t see a thick canopy of leaves anywhere… Let alone enough to throw a temperature.

 

Has anybody actually been in the park and observed these conditions?

I posted the recent photos of the delayed Manhattan leaf drop a few days ago. You probably don’t remember when the Central Park high temperatures were on par with EWR and LGA.  They installed the new ASOS under a stand of trees in the 1990s that grew into a dense canopy over the last 30 years. The old thermometer used to be in the open area near the castle with no trees shading the sensor. So when you take high temperature readings under a dense canopy of trees, it can be several degrees cooler than in a nearby open field depending on the weather conditions. That’s why you can’t take official temperature measurements directly underneath trees. Even rural weather stations like at the NWS in Upton are located in a clearing away from trees. They would never place their equipment out there underneath the dense natural pine barrens in that area. All part of the standardization process of how official weather measurements are taken.

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I posted the recent photos of the delayed Manhattan leaf drop a few days ago. You probably don’t remember when the Central Park high temperatures were on par with EWR and LGA.  They installed the new ASOS under a stand of trees in the 1990s that grew into a dense canopy over the last 30 years. The old thermometer used to be in the open area near the castle with no trees shading the sensor. So when you take high temperature readings under a dense canopy of trees, it can be several degrees cooler than in a nearby open field depending on the weather conditions. That’s why you can’t take official temperature measurements directly underneath trees. Even rural weather stations like at the NWS in Upton are located in a clearing away from trees. They would never place their equipment out there underneath the dense natural pine barrens in that area. All part of the standardization process of how official weather measurements are taken.

 

I think we need to get rid of these ASOS entirely, they dont measure wind accurately either and they don't properly identity precip type.  The equipment we had before was perfectly fine and accurate why all this waste of money into something that isn't any more accurate?

#DEFUNDASOS

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's just crazy that there is still that much foliage on the trees there! I am returning from Tennessee today and even there the trees were almost all entirely bare.

I guess those mild nights with barely any radiational cooling keeps the leaves on longer in NYC. They have had numerous nights in the 20s where I was in TN.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don’t know. I just drove through the Bronx and across Queens… There really isn’t enough foliage on any of these trees to shift a daytime temperature at this point.

I mean we’re talking about yesterday 

Furthermore, look at the observations from yesterday:

I bracketed the daytime observation where foliage covering the sun would be an issue.

It was overcast through 1pm with some cloud cover through at least 3pm.

A clear observation was finally made after sunset.

 

I appreciate what you were saying, but I think whatever foliage is left is not much of a factor especially on a day that was mostly overcast.

To dismiss the observation as inaccurate is a bit disingenuous especially when they are within a degree or two of the region

 

 

D6A5C3C2-006B-4A49-99C2-87D174A616FF.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I don’t know. I just drove through the Bronx and across Queens… There really isn’t enough foliage on any of these trees to shift a daytime temperature at this point.

I mean we’re talking about yesterday 

Furthermore, look at the observations from yesterday:

I bracketed the daytime observation where foliage covering the sun would be an issue.

It was overcast through 1pm with some cloud cover through at least 3pm.

A clear observation was finally made after sunset.

 

I appreciate what you were saying, but I think whatever foliage is left is not much of a factor especially on a day that was mostly overcast.

To dismiss the observation as inaccurate is a bit disingenuous especially when they are within a degree or two of the region

 

 

D6A5C3C2-006B-4A49-99C2-87D174A616FF.jpeg

even the suburbs hit 40 yesterday. come on

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Changing the NYC temperature measurements to underneath a dense tree canopy in the 1990s has had a big impact on the high temperatures while the trees still have leaves on them. The older NYC thermometer out in the open like the other official stations prior to the 1990s was more in line with EWR and LGA. Once the leaves drop over the next week or so, the highs will be similar to LGA and EWR again. NYC has experienced an artificial reduction in annual 90° days since the 1990s due to the foliage blocking the sensor. But winter 50° days have increased at similar rate to EWR and LGA. Those bare trees during the winter don’t block nearly as much sun as the fully leafed out trees do. So open areas of Central Park probably have closer to 23 to 25 days reaching 90° as opposed the 17 located in the deep shade. That’s how big a difference it makes when you take temperatures under a dense tree canopy instead of an open field.

EWR 90° days

1961-1990…..23……1991-2020…..28……+5

NYC

1961-1990…..18……1991-2020…..17………-1

LGA

1961-1990….14…….1991-2020….22……..+8

 

EWR winter 50° days

1961-1990….16……1991-2020…..23…….+7

NYC

1961-1990….16…..1991-2020…..22……..+6

LGA

1961-1990….14……1991-2020…22………+8

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s an error caused by the delayed leaf drop keeping thr ASOS in the shade. Even HPN made it to 40°. The temperatures won’t become reliable until the dense canopy finally drops  all its leaves. 
 

EWR 43

NYC 39

JFK 41

LGA 42

HPN 40

I remember when temperatures were supposed to be measured in the shade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Light snow and flurries fell across the region today. A few places picked up a  coating of snow. Newark received 0.1" of snow.In the wake of the weak system responsible for the snowfall, dry but cool weather will follow into the middle of the week.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9; 2021-22: November 28
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

Out West, near record to record warmth prevailed in a number of cities. Records included: Helena: 65° (old record: 56°, 2014) and Portland: 63° (old record: 59°, 1940). The temperature at Helena was the highest on record this late in the season.

As the ongoing blocking weakens over the next week, temperatures will likely turn milder for at least a time starting during the first week of December. The probability of a relatively mild EPO+/AO+ pattern through at least the first half of December has increased in recent days.

Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 28 4 pm is 16.41".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +6.42 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.184 today.

On November 26 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.251 (RMM). The November 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.177 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (1.8° below normal).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...