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With the record blocking patterns since 2002-2003, we have seen an unprecedented number of seasons when stations from around Newark out to Eastern LI recorded 40” or more of snow. This dramatic increase in snowfall has occurred during a steady increase in winter temperatures. Our older winters with 40”+ peak snowfall amounts used to occur with a NYC average temperature around 32°. But many recent 40”+ seasons featured a NYC average DJF temperature in the 35°-40° range. So this is a new combination of warmth and heavy snow for our area.
 

Seasons since 1950 when at least one station from Newark to Eastern LI recorded 40”+ and the NYC DJF average temperature. 35°+ average temperature seasons bolded

 

20-21….36.1

17-18….36.2

16-17….39.3

15-16….41.0

14-15…31.4

13-14…32.9

12-13…36.8

10-11….32.8

09-10…33.8

08-09…34.2

05-06…37.3

04-05…35.4

03-04…32.4

02-03…31.2

00-01….33.5

95-96…32.2

93-94…31.2

86-87….34.8

 

77-78….30.8

68-69….32.9

66-67….34.1

63-64…33.2

60-61….31.7

57-58…33.2

55-56…32.8


Yeah, that’s why we have been getting so much record warmth before or after our best snowstorms since the super El Niño in 15-16. Last December it was 60s before and after our best December snowstorm and -AO in years. May 2020 tied for our latest trace of snow following one of our warmest winters. 17-18 featured 30” of snow in March on Long Island after Newark hit 80° in late February. We had the blizzard in February 2017 a day after the 60s. 15-16 went  +13.3 in December followed by the 30” snowstorm in January and new #1 NYC snowstorm. Even before the super El Niño, we were getting occasional patterns like this. Nemo in February 2013 following the very warm first few months of winter. The 11-12 lack of winter after the record snowstorm in late October. The February 2006 NYC #2 snow following one our warmest Januaries on record. The late winter 2005 snowstorms following one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January on record. This is a sea level version of spring in the Rockies where snow and warmth have often occurred together. 

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November Average temperature for NYC by the decades...

decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall...

1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0...........................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9"

1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8"

1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3"

1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3"

1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2"

1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1"

1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2"

1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6"

1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5......24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5"

1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3"

1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7......71.5......25.7......81.....17......4.91".....0.3"

1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4......26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6"

1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7......80.....23.....3.41".....0.3"

2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace

2010's.....47.2.....52.8.....43.9.....70.1......27.4.....74.....15......3.48".....1.1"...

 

2020.......53.0.....53.0.....53.0.....75.0.....30.0.....75.....30.....3.99".....0

1870-.

2019........46.2.....52.8.....37.0…..69.8.....25.8.....84......7.......3.54".....0.8"

1990-

2019........47.8.....52.8.....43.9.....70.7......27.7......80.....15.......3.55".....0.5"

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The JMA joined the EPS for more of a -NAO -AO in the second half of November. Looks related to the weaker SPV. These La Niña -AO -NAO Novembers usually continue into the winter with -AO and -NAO blocking intervals.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

So he's predicting a thaw period from Jan 9 - 17 and a a storm event between Jan 22-Feb 15? Three months from now? Sorry I don't buy it.

I personally don’t buy it because Im a weenie and that is literally when I’ll be going back to school after being home for a month+ so I refuse to accept an outcome I don’t like

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its nice to see the models get colder in November but it means nothing if December is mild...maybe this year will buck the trend of mild snowless Christmas's...the last time there was sustained cold was the end of Dec 2017 to the first third of January..

since 1992 if October had a good neg nao and wasn't an el nino year NYC had average to above average snowfall with at least one big storm...1988 was the last time October had a neg nao and the following winter was snowstarved...(except for Atlantic City)

year..........

1992-93.....

1993-94.....

2003-04...

2005-06....

2010-11....

2012-13....

2013-14....

2020-21.....

2021-22....

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Even if the Euro is over amped for next weekend, I am hoping the suppression bias with East Coast storms was fixed with the big upgrade.

 

6DC2FF4D-8FA3-441D-AB2B-98B846B03678.thumb.png.51fbb21d0c6ed6726af4fd52479c073e.png

Example of suppression from last winter 

 

With a sharp ridge axis where it is over the Rockies on that run, you would think it's an amped outcome on the East coast.

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16 hours ago, bluewave said:

The JMA joined the EPS for more of a -NAO -AO in the second half of November. Looks related to the weaker SPV. These La Niña -AO -NAO Novembers usually continue into the winter with -AO and -NAO blocking intervals.

 

 

 

After their absolutely abysmal performance predicting the AO/NAO last winter, I view all these models with extreme skepticism until proven otherwise. Last year at this time, all of them were showing raging ++AO and ++NAO for Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar……and they were dead wrong, literally could not have been more wrong 

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

After their absolutely abysmal performance predicting the AO/NAO last winter, I view all these models with extreme skepticism until proven otherwise. Last year at this time, all of them were showing raging ++AO and ++NAO for Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar……and they were dead wrong, literally could not have been more wrong 

Seasonal NAO and AO forecasts from the fall are notoriously difficult or the models to get right. It’s usually the weekly models that pick up on the blocking potential first. We saw this last year with the weeklies showing more and more blocking the further into November that we got. Last year was literally a one of a kind type event. We never had and El Niño 500 mb pattern with such a strong La Niña before. So the near record SPV and +NAO last November was something that we see in an El Niño year like 2015-2016. But the SPV made a dramatic reversal just as we moved into December. This November the SPV is much weaker with the near record low recently. So a much different state of the SPV. That’s probably why the weekly models continue the -NAO -AO pattern and indicate the potential for another weakening later in November. But as always, it’s a wait and see since these forecasts can change at a later time.

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/wind_2021_MERRA2_NH.html

 

Much weaker SPV November 2021 than 2020

 

93422B3B-978D-4040-A6BF-5675756F1165.thumb.jpeg.958446f48976330cbbcf49cf00980263.jpeg

 

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56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Seasonal NAO and AO forecasts from the fall are notoriously difficult or the models to get right. It’s usually the weekly models that pick up on the blocking potential first. We saw this last year with the weeklies showing more and more blocking the further into November that we got. Last year was literally a one of a kind type event. We never had and El Niño 500 mb pattern with such a strong La Niña before. So the near record SPV and +NAO last November was something that we see in an El Niño year like 2015-2016. But the SPV made a dramatic reversal just as we moved into December. This November the SPV is much weaker with the near record low recently. So a much different state of the SPV. That’s probably why the weekly models continue the -NAO -AO pattern and indicate the potential for another weakening later in November. But as always, it’s a wait and see since these forecasts can change at a later time.

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/wind_2021_MERRA2_NH.html

 

Much weaker SPV November 2021 than 2020

 

93422B3B-978D-4040-A6BF-5675756F1165.thumb.jpeg.958446f48976330cbbcf49cf00980263.jpeg

 

It looks like it gets real mild again by mid-November, nothing like October was, but definitely above normal….question is what happens at the end of the month going into early December?

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On 10/29/2021 at 11:00 AM, MJO812 said:

That's what alot of people are going with.  MJO. 

This time around, the MJO is going to favor phases 4-6 (classic La Niña forcing). You have a very strongly coupled Niña this time around unlike last winter, where phases 1-3 were dominant. 

 

 

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14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like it gets real mild again by mid-November, nothing like October was, but definitely above normal….question is what happens at the end of the month going into early December?

I wonder if we do a fake -QBO thing,, '89, '05, 16 years is '21. No, I think -PNA will blast it.

(73-74 was a Strong La Nina [-16years], but Nov 15-Dec 15 was really cold pattern.. -NAO, -AO/EPO, otherwise it was really warm the rest of the Winter. 

(1957 was El Nino Air temps and 500mb: https://ibb.co/8sg0VY5 https://ibb.co/Y20VVjL

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Large nor'easter potential Either Nov 5-6 (EPS) or Nov 8-9 (GEFS).

00z/31 ensemble cycles attached to compare and let's see what happens.  May result in a period of snow down to I84?

Check the confluence in se Canada...i like that (dual jet- RRQ Canadian confluence and LF of the se USA trough).

EPS left-first, GEFS right-last. 

 

Screen Shot 2021-10-31 at 5.54.03 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-10-31 at 5.56.27 AM.png

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS and GEPS have the strongest coastal storm signal for next weekend. The GEFS looks like it’s struggling and has no storm. Be interesting to see if the Euro/EPS big upgrade means it will be the most amplified long range model. It was usually the most amplified models around day 5 and beyond before the upgrades in 2014-2015. That’s one of the reasons it did so well with Sandy and the Nemo phase. But it struggled in recent years with suppression and picking up on storm threats late at times.

D64390A8-4CA3-420C-9FA1-9537265305B8.thumb.png.3761939e12d359a9b1ec57b9b6fba968.png
687861DF-7B53-4D8C-8CDE-E0CC324D97DB.thumb.png.6eb50dd5c4b619aaf3fd33768fbfacab.png

2FE8D396-DB0C-4978-85AB-284005BB1B7D.thumb.png.b681af2f110327359ecf2c77d17f8395.png

Ridge the GFS, new Euro so far is the same as the old

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24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ridge the GFS, new Euro so far is the same as the old

The GFS still is having those skill drop outs at day 5 and beyond which puts it in last place. The Euro scores increased with upgrade. So the Euro hasn’t missed any storms to suppression since the upgrade. Hopefully, this continues through the winter.

 

BE8B5624-E5BF-46FF-8D4A-D51A06F7E035.thumb.jpeg.a80e38001dbec6bc06be47b8eff0c952.jpeg

 

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