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NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022


PhineasC
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Lost a good 6" of snow between Friday and Saturday, but man were conditions great yesterday. I skied the Doublehead ski trail twice in the afternoon and it was super soft and springy with bumps that had a perfect flow to them. Hands down the best it has skied all year. Today will be an entirely different story.

The gfs is trying to spit out some QPF here with the inverted trough tonight, so maybe we can squeeze out a coating to an inch. Otherwise we aren't looking at much now until the cutter at the end of the week, which looks to be another huge hit to the snowpack. Those cutters with 50-degree overnight temps are notorious snowpack annihilators, so I really do hope something changes. I'd estimate about two feet OTG right now.

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Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

I didn’t know we we’d be getting new snow this morning, but I woke up to find light snow falling and a fresh coating of white over everything.  The BTV NWS indicates that it’s from a sharp upper-level trough swinging through the area.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 3.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

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19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Need the GGEM to work out... turns the late week rainer into a snower.

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EURO stays just north of us.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-snow_48hr-5218000.thumb.png.5febf8db0b0aabebfd4f828506ff2da6.png

And GFS is just a monster thaw with big snow well north, ha.

gfs-deterministic-neng-snow_48hr-5218000.thumb.png.31ee90f28e16df7668aa615fae90a0a6.png

Le Massif jack on the GFS.

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49 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

I didn’t know we we’d be getting new snow this morning, but I woke up to find light snow falling and a fresh coating of white over everything.  The BTV NWS indicates that it’s from a sharp upper-level trough swinging through the area.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 3.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

So I wasn’t the only one a little surprised by the snow. Arctic sand and 1.4°

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28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Need the GGEM to work out... turns the late week rainer into a snower.

EURO stays just north of us.

And GFS is just a monster thaw with big snow well north, ha.

The GFS solution does seem pretty extreme to show absolutely no snow from that system around here – it’s presumably possible, but you typically need just the right track to get absolutely zero snow with the Northern Greens orographics.  It’s tough because the event is still pretty far out in time though – stepping through the 6Z ECMWF model run on Tropical Tidbits, I couldn’t even get to the point where that low reaches this area because it’s past 90 hours.

It would seem prudent to take some sort of blend of the models you showed, and I see that’s what the BTV NWS mentions in their forecast discussion.  They didn’t use the GGEM in the package, perhaps because it was the most extreme in terms of colder track, but they talk about their blend below.  It’s definitely a possible upcoming system to watch – they finish their discussion segment indicating that the system holds the potential for several inches of snow on the backside on Friday:

Thursday night developing sfc low pres wl track from the MS River Valley toward the eastern Great Lakes, while a sharpening cold frnt slowly sags southward toward the SLV. Guidance is still all over the place with regards to position of this very sharp boundary, where progged 925mb temps range from -12C to +6C in a span of <100 miles. The GEM solution is still the coldest and not used for this package, while GFS is the warmest and most delayed in pushing the colder air south and the ECMWF is sort of the middle ground. For example at 06z Friday, GFS shows 925mb temps near 10C at BTV, while GEM has -9C, and the ECMWF is near 0C. For this package have utilized a blend btwn previous fcst and latest NMB guidance, to show rain changing to snow from nw to se acrs our cwa btwn 03z-12z Friday, as temps fall from the mid 40s to mid 50s into the upper teens to mid 20s by 12z Fri. Whenever we have shallow low level cold air, undercutting warm air aloft, the potential for mixed precip, including sleet and freezing rain wl be possible during the transition period on Thurs night. These rapidly falling temperatures with precip occurring wl create a setup favorable for a flash freeze, which could result in a slick Friday morning commute. Several inches of snowfall is possible on the backside of low pres early Friday morning acrs our fa.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Happy Anniversary of the most fun snowstorm of my life.  This thing was a real storm.  I think it's the only all frozen QPF event at BTV with 2" of liquid equiv in the month of February?  

figure1.png

Yes, agreed. Was able to talk my wife to playing hooky for this storm. Spend the day ridding the deep pow at Sugarbush, snowing so hard you could only see three chairs ahead. The best part of the day was the resort offered $14 lift tickets to celebrate V-Day.

On our way back to Stockbridge, on rt. 100 south, that afternoon we had to drive around a mini avalanche that covered the right travel lane near Moss Glen Falls

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24 minutes ago, dmconno said:

Yes, agreed. Was able to talk my wife to playing hooky for this storm. Spend the day ridding the deep pow at Sugarbush, snowing so hard you could only see three chairs ahead. The best part of the day was the resort offered $14 lift tickets to celebrate V-Day.

On our way back to Stockbridge, on rt. 100 south, that afternoon we had to drive around a mini avalanche that covered the right travel lane near Moss Glen Falls

I like when accumulations are measured in feet, not inches.  life changing event.

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Happy Anniversary of the most fun snowstorm of my life.  This thing was a real storm.  I think it's the only all frozen QPF event at BTV with 2" of liquid equiv in the month of February?  

figure1.png

I will never forget that storm... epic it truly was. People were stuck everywhere, begging to get pulled out of the middle of the road. Cars getting quickly & completely engulfed in snowdrifts. The CB was crackling with municipal and private plow guys saying "F THIS!". I will never forget being down at the shoreline of Lake Champlain on Mallett's Bay in the middle of the night in a plow truck & not being able to see. one. single. thing. Sideways, whiteout, face-hurting ice & snow: intense blizzard conditions. A telephone pole and the rear right quarter panel of my pickup had quite the disagreement too, lol.

Memory-wise, second in line to that was the overnight instantaneous-fluff-bomb where those in BTV who woke up early had like 30 inches of the lightest, purest powder snow I've ever seen/felt in my life. I forget exactly how that anomaly happened but man that was nuts too. Who knew driving through 30 inches of unplowed snow could be so easy??

Wild winter stuff happened in the late oughts through the early tens... it doesn't seem to happen too often anymore... or maybe I'm just getting jaded in my "older" age.     

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BW was awesome today for a go-fast guy like me. The groomers were very firm and very fast but no ice. Had a blast carving the hell out of the groomers and racing the kids. 

Bone-chillingly cold though. 

Didn't venture off the groomers, but it looked kinda rough on the natural trails. Icy ruts.

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Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

I’d say that’s it for this system, as it looks like the snowfall tapered off earlier today. 

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 4.6 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

 

The next potential system in the area is shown on some of the models tomorrow, which the BTV NWS says is due to a weak shortwave in the northwest flow.

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Jay was def hard pack, but not un-skiable.  The glades above about 2800’ were actually pretty close to packed powder.  Once below mid mountain though, different story and the few bumped up trails below mid mountain were like going over ice boulders.  Pick your spots and stay up high and all and all, not bad.

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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

BW was awesome today for a go-fast guy like me. The groomers were very firm and very fast but no ice. Had a blast carving the hell out of the groomers and racing the kids. 

Bone-chillingly cold though. 

Didn't venture off the groomers, but it looked kinda rough on the natural trails. Icy ruts.

The kind of cold that burned once you got some speed.  Still decent day, though.

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5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

how bad is the cutter going to be? Looks like nearly 24hr of 50F+. How much rn? I figure our pack will be mostly wiped out. Just wondering how far north the damage will be.

Looks bad with many hours of high TD rain, though fortunately not a huge deluge on current forecasts - <1".  The 22" pack here is crusty but far from ripe, so I'd guess we'll still have 16-18" come Saturday.  Another thaw midweek, though perhaps with low dews.  Will it snow again this month?  16" in the first 8 days then flurries only for the next 20?  And last year we had only 1.7" after February - it's got to be better than that.

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I have my niece's 11 year old flying up from DC on Friday night. It was going to be an introduction to western Maine ski weekend with a visit to Saddleback and Sugarloaf - was looking forward to taking him top of Gondi Line and watching his knees shake! Now planning on skiing Pat's Peak in Henniker and Bromley in SoVT - they are forecast to get less rain and will recover quicker. Oh well, I'm onto March!

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52 minutes ago, Angus said:

I have my niece's 11 year old flying up from DC on Friday night. It was going to be an introduction to western Maine ski weekend with a visit to Saddleback and Sugarloaf - was looking forward to taking him top of Gondi Line and watching his knees shake! Now planning on skiing Pat's Peak in Henniker and Bromley in SoVT - they are forecast to get less rain and will recover quicker. Oh well, I'm onto March!

I may be biased but you may want to consider Bretton Woods. Recover quickly is relative; what you need is top notch grooming. 

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Holy sh*t.  A full burial and one partial burial in an avalanche in the Adirondacks back on Saturday.  That's a big slide.

1a.thumb.jpg.a046c627a0b0bfb14df94703535bf29a.jpg

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Saturday February 12, 2022 a large (R4, D3) skier triggered avalanche occurred on the furthest lookers right slide path in the well known northeast facing Angel Slides area on the shoulder of Wright Peak. The slide appears to have been remotely triggered by two skiers ascending the slide path. The crown of the avalanche at ~3,750 feet in elevation is estimated to have been 80 cm (~2.5 ft) deep at the deepest point, and reached approximately 150 feet across the entirety of the slope. From the start zone it is estimated the avalanche traveled more than 1000 feet to the toe of the avalanche.

By their own estimation the slide released approximately 500 feet above the two skiers. Both skiers were caught and carried around 150 feet. Skier one may have experienced a brief loss of consciousness, after coming to with a partially obstructed airway due to snow impacted in their mouth they were able to extract themselves from their partial burial after five minutes. Skier one located skier two with the lowest beacon reading being greater than one meter. Skier one dug out skier two who was fully buried and inverted, and had his airway cleared in approximately 10 to 15 minutes after the beginning of the incident. Skier two was not responsive and breathing faintly. As skier one continued to extract his partner, skier two regained consciousness. Both skiers recovered to the point that they were able to extract themselves from the woods despite the loss of some of their gear.

On the same slope we observed a snowpack of 70 cm in depth. Our results in the snow pit were as follows; CT 15 Q1 @ 60cm (measuring from the top), ECTP 14 @ 60 cm.

Read the full, unedited report on the observations page of our website via the link in our bio.

Thanks to those involved for sharing the details of this incident with us. It is our hope that sharing this information will increase our community’s awareness of avalanche hazards and highlight the need for more education and information to help mitigate the risk of traveling in avalanche terrain in the Adirondacks.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CaBSEC6OsJR/

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Holy sh*t.  A full burial and one partial burial in an avalanche in the Adirondacks back on Saturday.  That's a big slide.

1a.thumb.jpg.a046c627a0b0bfb14df94703535bf29a.jpg

2a.thumb.jpg.d382555699b2bbedf8adcd10e66df76f.jpg

3a.thumb.jpg.53d2c2d6cbbd5b6e8500d1915ff15c96.jpg

Saturday February 12, 2022 a large (R4, D3) skier triggered avalanche occurred on the furthest lookers right slide path in the well known northeast facing Angel Slides area on the shoulder of Wright Peak. The slide appears to have been remotely triggered by two skiers ascending the slide path. The crown of the avalanche at ~3,750 feet in elevation is estimated to have been 80 cm (~2.5 ft) deep at the deepest point, and reached approximately 150 feet across the entirety of the slope. From the start zone it is estimated the avalanche traveled more than 1000 feet to the toe of the avalanche.

By their own estimation the slide released approximately 500 feet above the two skiers. Both skiers were caught and carried around 150 feet. Skier one may have experienced a brief loss of consciousness, after coming to with a partially obstructed airway due to snow impacted in their mouth they were able to extract themselves from their partial burial after five minutes. Skier one located skier two with the lowest beacon reading being greater than one meter. Skier one dug out skier two who was fully buried and inverted, and had his airway cleared in approximately 10 to 15 minutes after the beginning of the incident. Skier two was not responsive and breathing faintly. As skier one continued to extract his partner, skier two regained consciousness. Both skiers recovered to the point that they were able to extract themselves from the woods despite the loss of some of their gear.

On the same slope we observed a snowpack of 70 cm in depth. Our results in the snow pit were as follows; CT 15 Q1 @ 60cm (measuring from the top), ECTP 14 @ 60 cm.

Read the full, unedited report on the observations page of our website via the link in our bio.

Thanks to those involved for sharing the details of this incident with us. It is our hope that sharing this information will increase our community’s awareness of avalanche hazards and highlight the need for more education and information to help mitigate the risk of traveling in avalanche terrain in the Adirondacks.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CaBSEC6OsJR/

Yeah I saw this yesterday!  Serious business.  The R and D scales go up to 5 as I remember so it was a pretty decent slide for the region.  Very lucky for both skiers that one guy was only partially buried and they knew what they were doing.  ADK slides are no joke!  

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On 2/14/2022 at 8:23 AM, powderfreak said:

Need the GGEM to work out... turns the late week rainer into a snower.

EURO stays just north of us.

And GFS is just a monster thaw with big snow well north, ha.

As we get closer to the potential event, nothing is as extreme as those earlier GGEM runs, but the GFS has continued to trend southward and is actually one of the snowier solutions as they all hone in on a blend as was mentioned.  The combination of the back side snows from that Thursday/Friday system, plus the snows from the Saturday evening system look pretty nice on some of the models, and could set up some potential fresh snow for the weekend.  Right now, the BTV NWS forecast discussion only mentions NNY in terms of the possible back side snow, but I’m sure they’ll bring the Northern Greens into their thoughts if snow possibilities increase there.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1017 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

 

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 352 PM EST Tuesday...Before precipitation moves entirely out, some snow will take place across northern New York, yielding about 1-3", give or take an inch or two depending on the low track.

 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 1017 PM EST Tuesday...trends in the long range data continue to support the idea of a well defined shortwave will be moving across the region on Saturday. The probabilities of snow showers continue to increase across much of the area and forecast soundings are beginning to show a greater depth of dry adiabatic lapse rates, which suggests enough instability may exist for convective snow showers or squalls. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Otherwise it does look like there may be minor accumulations of snow with this system that could result in some difficult travel conditions.

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Looks like some opportunities for the Vermont folks to pick up some snow on the back side of Friday's system, then again with a little clipper Saturday afternoon/evening. Maybe a couple/few inches in the northern Greens from both systems? Little hope here in the eastern Whites and I envision ski conditions won't really improve here until warmer temps arrive early next week.

Looking farther down the road, I'm cautiously optimistic about the Thursday/Friday period late next week. Looks like an opportunity for an SWFE type system on both the Euro and the gfs. The gfs is particularly robust with it. Things were really good here about a week ago, so hopefully this current stretch will be just a temporary setback and late Feb/March will deliver the goods once again.

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7 hours ago, J.Spin said:

As we get closer to the potential event, nothing is as extreme as those earlier GGEM runs, but the GFS has continued to trend southward and is actually one of the snowier solutions as they all hone in on a blend as was mentioned.  The combination of the back side snows from that Thursday/Friday system, plus the snows from the Saturday evening system look pretty nice on some of the models, and could set up some potential fresh snow for the weekend.  Right now, the BTV NWS forecast discussion only mentions NNY in terms of the possible back side snow, but I’m sure they’ll bring the Northern Greens into their thoughts if snow possibilities increase there.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1017 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022

 

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 352 PM EST Tuesday...Before precipitation moves entirely out, some snow will take place across northern New York, yielding about 1-3", give or take an inch or two depending on the low track.

 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 1017 PM EST Tuesday...trends in the long range data continue to support the idea of a well defined shortwave will be moving across the region on Saturday. The probabilities of snow showers continue to increase across much of the area and forecast soundings are beginning to show a greater depth of dry adiabatic lapse rates, which suggests enough instability may exist for convective snow showers or squalls. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Otherwise it does look like there may be minor accumulations of snow with this system that could result in some difficult travel conditions.

We are still under a flood watch though

Map of Forecast Area

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9 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Right now, the BTV NWS forecast discussion only mentions NNY in terms of the possible back side snow, but I’m sure they’ll bring the Northern Greens into their thoughts if snow possibilities increase there.

 

2 hours ago, jculligan said:

Looks like some opportunities for the Vermont folks to pick up some snow on the back side of Friday's system, then again with a little clipper Saturday afternoon/evening. Maybe a couple/few inches in the northern Greens from both systems?

The latest BTV NWS forecast discussion does continue to mention the possibility with the back side of the this system, starting with a Winter Storm Watch for the Saint Lawrence Valley, but they’re starting to mention areas farther east, so they’ve certainly got their eyes on it.  I'd say we’re south and east of the very best snows with this system, but most models show some snow in the area. We’ll see what the models suggest as we get closer.

 

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 406 AM EST Wednesday...A very complexity and challenging fcst continues to unfold with some sizable changes noted in the 00z guidance.

…have issued winter storm watch for 6 or more inches of snow and some ice accumulation for the St Lawrence Valley from 00z Friday thru 15z Friday. Additional headlines are possible for other parts of NY and portions of VT in later fcst packages.

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