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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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I wouldn't sweat the short range models. Like I've said. The Euro and GFS have been stellar with there solutions.  The NAM can suck it for all I care and the HRRR has never been much of a great model for output here in the mountains. I could be wrong and If I am ill eat my words but the big dogs are locked in, not the ankle biters...

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Just now, Met1985 said:

Current temp here is 31 also. Had a low of 21. The ground is primed.  We had a heavy frost. 

Crazy how your protected hollar helps with temps. Only got down to 28 at my place. Getting the majority of my stuff moved in today finally, hope to send the family back down to Hickory before things kickoff tonight barring an earlier than expected arrival that seems to tend to happen.

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I wouldn't sweat the short range models. Like I've said. The Euro and GFS have been stellar with there solutions.  The NAM can suck it for all I care and the HRRR has never been much of a great model for output here in the mountains. I could be wrong and If I am ill eat my words but the big dogs are locked in, not the ankle biters...

I am still calling for a big dog. New video uploading to YouTube now.
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7 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

Crazy how your protected hollar helps with temps. Only got down to 28 at my place. Getting the majority of my stuff moved in today finally, hope to send the family back down to Hickory before things kickoff tonight barring an earlier than expected arrival that seems to tend to happen.

Yeah you must be on the side facing towards Big Bald and upper Crabtree?

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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah you must be on the side facing towards Big Bald and upper Crabtree?

I’m up on the mountains above where Upper Crabtree/Liner Creek Rd pavement ends, facing WSW right below the ridge line that is the county line.  You’ll have to learn me on the mountain names on this side of the county outside of the main ones, but the view from my front porch is a bald/pasture land mountain top so I’m guessing that’s Big Bald. 

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We are at Ingles in cashiers now and it’s is slammed busy. We’ve got enough food to last a week, lol. We ain’t going hungry. 
Leave me some coffee on the shelf please! I can't get there until after 12. Maybe hide some coffee beans where the bread used to be? Last night there were like six loaves left on the shelves.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

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Just now, WxKnurd said:

I’m up on the mountains above where Upper Crabtree/Liner Creek Rd pavement ends, facing WSW right below the ridge line that is the county line.  You’ll have to learn me on the mountain names on this side of the county outside of the main ones, but the view from my front porch is a bald/pasture land mountain top so I’m guessing that’s Big Bald. 

Yeah I know exactly were that is. I have some friends with horses that live up that way and some friends that live up big bald. I live on the Canton side of Crabtree were I can see Canton and Mt. Pisgah.  

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Updated GSP AFD (Changed Discussion only)

 

 
- Changed Discussion --

As of 940 AM EST Saturday: Despite the widespread mid and high clouds, and patchy low clouds, temps have warmed faster than expected. Have raised highs a couple of degrees most locations as a result. This warming may also play a part in the resulting p-types of the pre-main event rain/snow showers that develop over the mountains, NC Foothills, and I-40 corridor this afternoon. With the warmer temps, the showers may be more rain than snow outside of the mountains, even with the expected evaporational cooling. Either way no significant accums are expected outside of the highest elevations. Even there, mainly a dusting is expected. Largely anticipate quasi-zonal flow aloft with weak northeasterly flow at the surface. High pressure settles across New England today and strengthens the developing northeasterly flow, prompting the developing of a cold-air damming situation east of the Appalachians. Increasing low-level WAA suggests that moist upglide will gradually tick upward throughout the day, which will result in enhanced low- to mid-level cloud cover. A few of the CAMs are advertising spotty showers from late morning onward, but profiles indicate continued dry advection in the boundary layer (courtesy of sustained northeast winds) will keep much of the precipitation from reaching the ground in lieu of simply strengthening the cold wedge. Saturday night, impacts from an approaching winter storm will begin in earnest. By 21Z, the models depict a closed upper low shifting east out of the ArkLaTex region and steering a rapidly developing surface cyclone northeast out of the Deep South. Models are now in excellent agreement that the low will track across the southern Upstate and produce widespread wintry precipitation. With the cold wedge still intact and ~850mb WAA enhancing a warm nose aloft, a developing rain-freezing rain mix will further enhance the CAD. How far north and west this warm nose will extend remains a topic of contention among the models still, but the trend over the last 24 hours has been for the CAMs to bring the warm nose farther inland, resulting in more widespread ice across the Upstate and even into parts of the Piedmont. As the 850mb low tracks north and east of our CWA, low-level flow will rapidly turn easterly by perhaps 12Z Sunday. 850mb WAA becomes increasingly anemic and the warm nose begins to diminish by Sunday evening. By this point in time, however, profiles will starting to dry, as dry cool-sector air filters into the area, scouring out the wedge. This drying should gradually deactivate ice nuclei, decreasing precip rates overall and allowing a transition back to a light, patchy, snow-sleet mix across most of the Piedmont and Upstate. The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow forecast. The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians. Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing through most of the event, allowing for an easy transition from a rain-snow mix to all snow from Saturday night onward. Precipitation intensity and coverage should drop off significantly past mid-afternoon Sunday. Patchy snow and sleet warrants slight PoPs across the area through 00Z Monday and beyond, however, especially in the mountains where NW flow snow will likely already be developing in the wake of the system.

-- End Changed Discussion --
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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I know exactly were that is. I have some friends with horses that live up that way and some friends that live up big bald. I live on the Canton side of Crabtree were I can see Canton and Mt. Pisgah.  

I like where we are sitting, really all of Haywood. Hope our Cruso member can take delight in what looks to be jackpot areas for Haywood, I know it’s probably not the same kind of excitement after the flooding with lots left to clean up and try to get back to life pre-flood.

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13 minutes ago, mercurydime said:

Updated GSP AFD (Changed Discussion only)

 

 
- Changed Discussion --

. How far north and west this warm nose will extend remains a topic of contention among the models still, but the trend over the last 24 hours has been for the CAMs to bring the warm nose farther inland, resulting in more widespread ice across the Upstate and even into parts of the Piedmont.

 

. The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow forecast. The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians. Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing through most of the event, allowing for an easy transition from a rain-snow mix to all snow from Saturday night onward. Precipitation intensity and coverage should drop off significantly past mid-afternoon Sunday.

 

No mention of the adjacent foothills areas. 

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3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

 

No mention of the adjacent foothills areas. 

Nope...other than the temp increase and p-type issues for the scattered precipitation instances they've mentioned for the last day or so.   

Interested to see how the cold wedge holds up here just east of the escarpment.  

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2 minutes ago, mercurydime said:

Nope...other than the temp increase and p-type issues for the scattered precipitation instances they've mentioned for the last day or so.   

Interested to see how the cold wedge holds up here just east of the escarpment.  

Good points by GSP though and looking like a hefty raking of snow for most in this sub thread. 

 

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