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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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5 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

Here ya go from pivotal. General trend has been down over the last several runs but this one looks slightly better for the NW mountains. Still 36 hours for another windshield wiper trend. snku_acc.us_ma (3).jpg

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
 

Think the NW High Country still gonna be pleased with an excellent event.  And that backside dealio will be a nice little thump.  I’m just a tick North from ya’ here on East side of Elk Knob and not looking forward to the winds when this rolls out.  The low temps combined with the possibility of another event Wed/Thurs.-I’d say no school for the kiddos probably for the whole week.  But hey no complaints, let’s all enjoy an active winter! 
 

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34 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Think the NW High Country still gonna be pleased with an excellent event.  And that backside dealio will be a nice little thump.  I’m just a tick North from ya’ here on East side of Elk Knob and not looking forward to the winds when this rolls out.  The low temps combined with the possibility of another event Wed/Thurs.-I’d say no school for the kiddos probably for the whole week.  But hey no complaints, I’m enjoying an active winter! 
 

The overnight Euro once again was just steady as a rock 

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1 minute ago, wxduncan said:

How is the forecast looking for Morganton total wise etc? I've seen some people say we might not get anything because of a few runs from overnight that true? But then according to GSP and NWS, we are still on track what gives?

Looks like you could get anywhere from 5 to 10 inches of snow. There is a possibility of some mixing which would cut into totals. 

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7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

GFS looks on point also this morning.  I really don't see much mixing issues for the mountains at all. Not saying GSP is wrong but I just don't see it. 

Same, looks like pretty much and all snow deal up here.  But not the same deal for down the hill along the I-85/US-64 corridor from like Charlotte, East to Apex area…thinking they may have a significant IP/ZR event.  

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5 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Same, looks like pretty much and all snow deal up here.  But not the same deal for down the hill along the I-85/US-64 corridor from like Charlotte, East to Apex area…thinking they may have a significant IP/ZR event.  

Yeah and the rule of thumb if you are outside the mountains there is always an issue with mixing.

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Just now, wxduncan said:

Well as long as I can get 5-6 inches of snow I will call it a win here in Morganton. Adding some sleet on top and maybe a little zr will make for some amazing sledding plus will stay around longer.

Yeah I think you'll get that easy. I wouldn't worry at all about getting that. It's going to be a wild ride.

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5 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

Think Morganton in Burke county can stay mostly snow or?

Maybe around the northern Burke, Jonas Ridge/Gorge areas looks like the majority as snow, but south of that, the elevation drops rapidly, so I’m not sure.  IMO, I’d say mostly snow and some IP/ZR, with more concern with icing for the Piedmont and Charlotte areas.  Hard to imagine over an inch of ice around those areas-especially given the fact they haven’t had a significant ice storm in a while, so there’s plenty of low hanging fruit to snap.  
 

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9 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Looks like the lp shifted north on the one? Or am I just tired? 

I’m literally laying here on my side squinting :D you proved me wrong it isn’t much better in the end after I selected by region and zoomed in. Just have to hope it’s wrong. Most globals continued to look the same and have been rock steady for run on run on run 

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I still have a point forecast of 4-8. I would take 3 and still be happy. I just want some snow after all this work, lol. Good luck to everyone. I still feel like we are going to do really well. 

Edited to add, the GFS STILL thinks we are getting hammered and also that NW flow means business.

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23 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

All the globals are holding steady have not changed. Wonder what's going on with the NAM?

Just checked my point and click for Morganton/Valdese shows 3-7 so I'm happy with that :)

I think NWS has a pretty good handle on it for our area. I really think the lower ends will probably verify. Usually once a changeover from snow to sleet occurs, it doesn't change back easily.

The NAM is a higher resolution model, so throughout the day we need to monitor all the short range models closely for any trends. NAM usually is a little biased and too warm, in my experience.

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