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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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1 hour ago, Maggie Ace said:

Interesting to watch the guidance move the low track further S the past couple of days.  I  suppose if that trend holds through the rest of the work week we have a chance of some minor accumulation here in the Valley. 

Yeah this could end up surprising a few people especially if it comes in overnight.  

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GSP certainly sounds optimistic. Guess I need to go get some more salt.


000 FXUS62 KGSP 081945 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 245 PM EST Tue Mar 8 2022

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The bigger story will likely be the cold temps behind the front. The temperature gradient along the front looks particularly strong, as do the post-frontal winds. Temps will remain above freezing even in high elevations most of Friday night, crashing rapidly Saturday morning; profiles quickly become supportive of snowfall across the mountains, and look particularly good for a NW Flow event, which could continue into early Sunday. The elements do look like they are lining up: strong cold advection, strong NW winds, relatively deep moisture with a Great Lake component, and weak surface instability. Accumulating snow certainly looks possible for the NC/TN border areas at this point. Winds could easily reach advisory criteria for the mountains if not portions of the Piedmont in the wake of the front; based on current Bufkit profiles and raw model gusts, High Wind Warning may be warranted for some of the mountains as well. The main caveat currently is whether the low track will continue to trend one way or the other as we approach Friday night.

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Hi all over and in the far blue mountains. Sadly I will be just west of Boone (halfway between Boone and banner Elk) for what right looks like a nice plateau TN snow. I've never been there for a storm like this, so what are some reasonable expectations? Most of the models keep the snow west of the mts, but I also know elevation can make a huge difference once the low moves NE and you get the thermal profile crashing. Looks like I will be right at 3200 feet, just off 105 and up a hill. I also suspect the models have a hard time resolving rain and snow lines in the mountains, but don't really have any experience. 

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23 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Hi all over and in the far blue mountains. Sadly I will be just west of Boone (halfway between Boone and banner Elk) for what right looks like a nice plateau TN snow. I've never been there for a storm like this, so what are some reasonable expectations? Most of the models keep the snow west of the mts, but I also know elevation can make a huge difference once the low moves NE and you get the thermal profile crashing. Looks like I will be right at 3200 feet, just off 105 and up a hill. I also suspect the models have a hard time resolving rain and snow lines in the mountains, but don't really have any experience. 

As we are seeing as we get closer to this event the snow line has shifted east for the mountains.  Elevation will help a lot in this type setup. Not really sure about that area but things look great for you guys over the border. Should be a fun event. 

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