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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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GSP mentioned thundersnow in the PM AFD. Guess I should try and catch a nap before midnight.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
308 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As the cold front slides through the CFWA overnight, very rapid height falls and intense CAA will filter in behind the front. This will support a 10 degree C drop in 850mb temps in less than two hours across the mountains with rapidly falling snow levels. Expect a quick transition to snow across the mountains just after midnight starting in the Smokies and ridgetops, with the valleys getting in on the action later overnight as snow levels continue to drop. Northwest flow regime will set up shop early Saturday morning and should last well into the afternoon hours along the TN border. With very good saturation through the dendritic growth zone, frontogenetic forcing, and decent duration of snow, elected to continue the Winter Storm Warning above 3500` and Winter Weather Advisory below 3500` over the mountain zones. As the core of the low enters the CFWA overnight, high-res models continue to produce small CAPE which could produce thundersnow with 1-2" per hour snow rates at times. With what looks like a Great Lakes connection and the CAPE potential, wouldn`t be surprised if a few streamers across the mountains developed snow squall characteristics. Temperatures will rapidly drop behind the front due to the very stout CAA, with temperatures dropping throughout the day Saturday. Expect high temperatures to be recorded at midnight tonight as some of the coldest air of the season filters in overnight through Saturday and into the beginning portions of the short term period.

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4 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

GSP mentioned thundersnow in the PM AFD. Guess I should try and catch a nap before midnight.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
308 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As the cold front slides through the CFWA overnight, very rapid height falls and intense CAA will filter in behind the front. This will support a 10 degree C drop in 850mb temps in less than two hours across the mountains with rapidly falling snow levels. Expect a quick transition to snow across the mountains just after midnight starting in the Smokies and ridgetops, with the valleys getting in on the action later overnight as snow levels continue to drop. Northwest flow regime will set up shop early Saturday morning and should last well into the afternoon hours along the TN border. With very good saturation through the dendritic growth zone, frontogenetic forcing, and decent duration of snow, elected to continue the Winter Storm Warning above 3500` and Winter Weather Advisory below 3500` over the mountain zones. As the core of the low enters the CFWA overnight, high-res models continue to produce small CAPE which could produce thundersnow with 1-2" per hour snow rates at times. With what looks like a Great Lakes connection and the CAPE potential, wouldn`t be surprised if a few streamers across the mountains developed snow squall characteristics. Temperatures will rapidly drop behind the front due to the very stout CAA, with temperatures dropping throughout the day Saturday. Expect high temperatures to be recorded at midnight tonight as some of the coldest air of the season filters in overnight through Saturday and into the beginning portions of the short term period.

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High elevation could see up to a foot.

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Areas affected...Portions of southern and central Appalachians and vicinity Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 120733Z - 121330Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow is possible within the southern and central Appalachians and vicinity. 1-2 inches per hour snowfall is possible in eastern Tennessee and Kentucky. Rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour will continue to move northeastward into West Virginia and western/central Pennsylvania towards early morning. DISCUSSION...Temperatures have been dropping quickly across eastern Tennessee and Kentucky over the past 1-2 hours as cold air advection and diabatic cooling have increased. Correlation coefficient data from KJKL and KMRX show a transition zone from rain to snow roughly located in the Cumberland Plateau vicinity. This transition zone has quickly shifted east over the last hour. The combination of mid-level ascent and upslope flow will support 1-2 inch snowfall rates along the western slopes into the Appalachians. The greatest snowfall rates will begin to taper off by 4-6 AM EST. Farther north, snowfall is increasing across West Virginia into western Pennsylvania. Several observations sites are reporting moderate to heavy snow that is has been primarily driven by 850-700 mb frontogentic lift. As the trough moves east and intensifies, deep-layer ascent will increase in these areas into early Saturday morning. The potential for 1-1.5 inch snowfall rates will increase accordingly during the next several hours. ..Wendt.. 03/12/2022mcd0244.gif

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39 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Approaching 4" on the ground now at 4500' in Wolf.

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Got about 2 inches here with a heavy layer of sleet underneath all the snow. The wind is ripping and there are numerous power outages around the county already.  Temp down to 23 which is a 25 degree drop from midnight... 

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