BretWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: You can Blame Cantore for the Frz rain in Asheville, as he's headed there lol DAMMIT! I was hoping that wasn't going to happen. Cursed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Per 3k NAM, 2 feet at little Switzerland and a dusting from weaverville to mars hill, wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 You can Blame Cantore for the Frz rain in Asheville, as he's headed there lolTWC has boots on the ground in AVL already, Felicia Combs reporting this morning. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Per 3k NAM, 2 feet at little Switzerland and a dusting from weaverville to mars hill, wow! That FBRV means business. The NAM takes it very seriously. Overdone I'm sure, there's no way a dusting occurs ten miles from 2', right?Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Per 3k NAM, 2 feet at little Switzerland and a dusting from weaverville to mars hill, wow! That's a jackpot IMBY. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Ja643y said: That's a jackpot IMBY. Lol I’m 2 miles from the Chalet in little Switzerland, hopefully these totals pan out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I’m 2 miles from the Chalet in little Switzerland, hopefully these totals pan out. I'm about the same. I'll take 50% and call it a huge win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristospherein Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 South Charlotte temp is 40.5 and starting to drop after hitting a high of 40.8 at 9AM. Dew point high was 31 and now dropping. Getting the heck out and heading to 2 miles SE of Brevard tonight at 2,450. Everything pointing to a great spot to get a lot of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I wouldn't sweat the short range models. Like I've said. The Euro and GFS have been stellar with there solutions. The NAM can suck it for all I care and the HRRR has never been much of a great model for output here in the mountains. I could be wrong and If I am ill eat my words but the big dogs are locked in, not the ankle biters... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Current temp here is 31 also. Had a low of 21. The ground is primed. We had a heavy frost. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Met1985 said: Current temp here is 31 also. Had a low of 21. The ground is primed. We had a heavy frost. Crazy how your protected hollar helps with temps. Only got down to 28 at my place. Getting the majority of my stuff moved in today finally, hope to send the family back down to Hickory before things kickoff tonight barring an earlier than expected arrival that seems to tend to happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I wouldn't sweat the short range models. Like I've said. The Euro and GFS have been stellar with there solutions. The NAM can suck it for all I care and the HRRR has never been much of a great model for output here in the mountains. I could be wrong and If I am ill eat my words but the big dogs are locked in, not the ankle biters...I am still calling for a big dog. New video uploading to YouTube now. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: Crazy how your protected hollar helps with temps. Only got down to 28 at my place. Getting the majority of my stuff moved in today finally, hope to send the family back down to Hickory before things kickoff tonight barring an earlier than expected arrival that seems to tend to happen. Yeah you must be on the side facing towards Big Bald and upper Crabtree? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hvward said: I am still calling for a big dog. New video uploading to YouTube now. Yes sir! No need to back down. Go get em Ward! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Chris Justus saying he’s not changing his forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Nice scene on top of Sugar Mountain right now with lower cloud deck raking the top: http://www.skisugar.com/cams/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 We are at Ingles in cashiers now and it’s is slammed busy. We’ve got enough food to last a week, lol. We ain’t going hungry. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here comes the CAD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah you must be on the side facing towards Big Bald and upper Crabtree? I’m up on the mountains above where Upper Crabtree/Liner Creek Rd pavement ends, facing WSW right below the ridge line that is the county line. You’ll have to learn me on the mountain names on this side of the county outside of the main ones, but the view from my front porch is a bald/pasture land mountain top so I’m guessing that’s Big Bald. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 We are at Ingles in cashiers now and it’s is slammed busy. We’ve got enough food to last a week, lol. We ain’t going hungry. Leave me some coffee on the shelf please! I can't get there until after 12. Maybe hide some coffee beans where the bread used to be? Last night there were like six loaves left on the shelves. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Perfect transfer on the rgem. Solid run! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, WxKnurd said: I’m up on the mountains above where Upper Crabtree/Liner Creek Rd pavement ends, facing WSW right below the ridge line that is the county line. You’ll have to learn me on the mountain names on this side of the county outside of the main ones, but the view from my front porch is a bald/pasture land mountain top so I’m guessing that’s Big Bald. Yeah I know exactly were that is. I have some friends with horses that live up that way and some friends that live up big bald. I live on the Canton side of Crabtree were I can see Canton and Mt. Pisgah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Updated GSP AFD (Changed Discussion only) - Changed Discussion -- As of 940 AM EST Saturday: Despite the widespread mid and high clouds, and patchy low clouds, temps have warmed faster than expected. Have raised highs a couple of degrees most locations as a result. This warming may also play a part in the resulting p-types of the pre-main event rain/snow showers that develop over the mountains, NC Foothills, and I-40 corridor this afternoon. With the warmer temps, the showers may be more rain than snow outside of the mountains, even with the expected evaporational cooling. Either way no significant accums are expected outside of the highest elevations. Even there, mainly a dusting is expected. Largely anticipate quasi-zonal flow aloft with weak northeasterly flow at the surface. High pressure settles across New England today and strengthens the developing northeasterly flow, prompting the developing of a cold-air damming situation east of the Appalachians. Increasing low-level WAA suggests that moist upglide will gradually tick upward throughout the day, which will result in enhanced low- to mid-level cloud cover. A few of the CAMs are advertising spotty showers from late morning onward, but profiles indicate continued dry advection in the boundary layer (courtesy of sustained northeast winds) will keep much of the precipitation from reaching the ground in lieu of simply strengthening the cold wedge. Saturday night, impacts from an approaching winter storm will begin in earnest. By 21Z, the models depict a closed upper low shifting east out of the ArkLaTex region and steering a rapidly developing surface cyclone northeast out of the Deep South. Models are now in excellent agreement that the low will track across the southern Upstate and produce widespread wintry precipitation. With the cold wedge still intact and ~850mb WAA enhancing a warm nose aloft, a developing rain-freezing rain mix will further enhance the CAD. How far north and west this warm nose will extend remains a topic of contention among the models still, but the trend over the last 24 hours has been for the CAMs to bring the warm nose farther inland, resulting in more widespread ice across the Upstate and even into parts of the Piedmont. As the 850mb low tracks north and east of our CWA, low-level flow will rapidly turn easterly by perhaps 12Z Sunday. 850mb WAA becomes increasingly anemic and the warm nose begins to diminish by Sunday evening. By this point in time, however, profiles will starting to dry, as dry cool-sector air filters into the area, scouring out the wedge. This drying should gradually deactivate ice nuclei, decreasing precip rates overall and allowing a transition back to a light, patchy, snow-sleet mix across most of the Piedmont and Upstate. The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow forecast. The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians. Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing through most of the event, allowing for an easy transition from a rain-snow mix to all snow from Saturday night onward. Precipitation intensity and coverage should drop off significantly past mid-afternoon Sunday. Patchy snow and sleet warrants slight PoPs across the area through 00Z Monday and beyond, however, especially in the mountains where NW flow snow will likely already be developing in the wake of the system. -- End Changed Discussion -- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I know exactly were that is. I have some friends with horses that live up that way and some friends that live up big bald. I live on the Canton side of Crabtree were I can see Canton and Mt. Pisgah. I like where we are sitting, really all of Haywood. Hope our Cruso member can take delight in what looks to be jackpot areas for Haywood, I know it’s probably not the same kind of excitement after the flooding with lots left to clean up and try to get back to life pre-flood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Winds between 4-8mph out of the ENE. This is looking N to W . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Up to 38 here with the sun making an appearance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, mercurydime said: Updated GSP AFD (Changed Discussion only) - Changed Discussion -- . How far north and west this warm nose will extend remains a topic of contention among the models still, but the trend over the last 24 hours has been for the CAMs to bring the warm nose farther inland, resulting in more widespread ice across the Upstate and even into parts of the Piedmont. . The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow forecast. The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians. Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing through most of the event, allowing for an easy transition from a rain-snow mix to all snow from Saturday night onward. Precipitation intensity and coverage should drop off significantly past mid-afternoon Sunday. No mention of the adjacent foothills areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: No mention of the adjacent foothills areas. Nope...other than the temp increase and p-type issues for the scattered precipitation instances they've mentioned for the last day or so. Interested to see how the cold wedge holds up here just east of the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, mercurydime said: Nope...other than the temp increase and p-type issues for the scattered precipitation instances they've mentioned for the last day or so. Interested to see how the cold wedge holds up here just east of the escarpment. Good points by GSP though and looking like a hefty raking of snow for most in this sub thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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