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October 2021


Stormlover74
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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree with this. Still very early obviously but I’m not so sure that the flip to a cold November narrative being pushed by some is going to work out this time around, there are some glaring hints right now that the major pattern change to cold in November idea may be in some trouble

We’ll be getting some hints over the next few weeks as to how November will start. The one feature models have been showing is a continuation of the Canadian warmth. If this turns out to be the case, then maybe a milder La Niña November like 2016 will be possible.The 2017 November La Niña was colder in Canada and the Northeast. 

November 1-8 long range forecast

679065A0-2138-4B83-93E3-F6BD349759B8.thumb.png.b933b0b1753285115ebcb3807acc4c22.png
 

La Niña November 2016

 

72627C2F-39F1-45E3-872B-50BF2FC6354D.png.206ca901dc003c742422d07caf68edf1.png

 

La Niña November 2017


6945C090-D07A-4854-BD61-AF1AC3B39AB0.png.ce032a5666d372ba5c4c1652212d9ca0.png

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll be getting some hints over the next few weeks as to how November will start. The one feature models have been showing is a continuation of the Canadian warmth. If this turns out to be the case, then maybe a milder La Niña November like 2016 will be possible.The 2017 November La Niña was colder in Canada and the Northeast. 

November 1-8 long range forecast

679065A0-2138-4B83-93E3-F6BD349759B8.thumb.png.b933b0b1753285115ebcb3807acc4c22.png
 

La Niña November 2016

 

72627C2F-39F1-45E3-872B-50BF2FC6354D.png.206ca901dc003c742422d07caf68edf1.png

 

La Niña November 2017


6945C090-D07A-4854-BD61-AF1AC3B39AB0.png.ce032a5666d372ba5c4c1652212d9ca0.png

 

 

 

Yes. And there in lies the problem….the upper level strato warming has to downwell into the troposphere or it’s useless. I’m not saying that’s what is going to happen but if it doesn’t, the flip to a cold November idea is going to have serious problems 

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34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes. And there in lies the problem….the upper level strato warming has to downwell into the troposphere or it’s useless. I’m not saying that’s what is going to happen but if it doesn’t, the flip to a cold November idea is going to have serious problems 

We haven’t had a really cold La Niña November over the last decade. The 4 coupled La Niña years were 2017, 2016, 2011, and 2010. The coldest November was 2019 and it was neutral. 

 

 

November NY climate division 4

 

202011 49.6°F 120 3.7°F
201911 42.3°F 29 -3.6°F
201811 43.6°F 55 -2.3°F
201711 45.6°F 85 -0.3°F
201611 48.2°F 115 2.3°F
201511 50.2°F 126 4.3°F
201411 43.8°F 58 -2.1°F
201311 43.7°F 56 -2.2°F
201211 42.8°F 39 -3.1°F
201111 49.8°F 124 3.9°F
201011 46.2°F 96 0.3°F

.

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imagine a high of 46

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 2009
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Temperature
HDD
CDD
Precipitation
New Snow
Snow Depth
Maximum
Minimum
Average
Departure
Sum 1967 1478 - - 292 6 5.43 0.0 -
Average 63.5 47.7 55.6 -1.9 - - - - 0.0
Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2 -
2009-10-01 58 45 51.5 -11.8 13 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-02 66 43 54.5 -8.4 10 0 0.04 0.0 0
2009-10-03 71 65 68.0 5.5 0 3 0.12 0.0 0
2009-10-04 77 57 67.0 4.9 0 2 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-05 71 52 61.5 -0.2 3 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-06 69 48 58.5 -2.8 6 0 T 0.0 0
2009-10-07 73 57 65.0 4.1 0 0 0.05 0.0 0
2009-10-08 69 51 60.0 -0.5 5 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-09 73 59 66.0 5.9 0 1 0.02 0.0 0
2009-10-10 67 50 58.5 -1.2 6 0 T 0.0 0
2009-10-11 66 43 54.5 -4.8 10 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-12 54 42 48.0 -10.9 17 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-13 68 46 57.0 -1.5 8 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-14 54 38 46.0 -12.1 19 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-15 47 39 43.0 -14.8 22 0 0.62 0.0 0
2009-10-16 46 38 42.0 -15.4 23 0 0.03 0.0 0
2009-10-17 48 42 45.0 -12.0 20 0 0.11 0.0 0
2009-10-18 47 42 44.5 -12.1 20 0 0.24 0.0 0
2009-10-19 59 37 48.0 -8.3 17 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-20 69 38 53.5 -2.4 11 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-21 70 46 58.0 2.4 7 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-22 77 50 63.5 8.3 1 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-23 63 51 57.0 2.2 8 0 0.36 0.0 0
2009-10-24 72 55 63.5 9.0 1 0 1.83 0.0 0
2009-10-25 65 50 57.5 3.4 7 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-26 61 43 52.0 -1.8 13 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-27 57 45 51.0 -2.4 14 0 0.78 0.0 0
2009-10-28 58 51 54.5 1.4 10 0 1.09 0.0 0
2009-10-29 59 49 54.0 1.2 11 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-30 59 51 55.0 2.6 10 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-31 74 55 64.5 12.4 0 0 0.14 0.0 0
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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

imagine a high of 46

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 2009
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Temperature
HDD
CDD
Precipitation
New Snow
Snow Depth
Maximum
Minimum
Average
Departure
Sum 1967 1478 - - 292 6 5.43 0.0 -
Average 63.5 47.7 55.6 -1.9 - - - - 0.0
Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2 -
2009-10-01 58 45 51.5 -11.8 13 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-02 66 43 54.5 -8.4 10 0 0.04 0.0 0
2009-10-03 71 65 68.0 5.5 0 3 0.12 0.0 0
2009-10-04 77 57 67.0 4.9 0 2 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-05 71 52 61.5 -0.2 3 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-06 69 48 58.5 -2.8 6 0 T 0.0 0
2009-10-07 73 57 65.0 4.1 0 0 0.05 0.0 0
2009-10-08 69 51 60.0 -0.5 5 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-09 73 59 66.0 5.9 0 1 0.02 0.0 0
2009-10-10 67 50 58.5 -1.2 6 0 T 0.0 0
2009-10-11 66 43 54.5 -4.8 10 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-12 54 42 48.0 -10.9 17 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-13 68 46 57.0 -1.5 8 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-14 54 38 46.0 -12.1 19 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-15 47 39 43.0 -14.8 22 0 0.62 0.0 0
2009-10-16 46 38 42.0 -15.4 23 0 0.03 0.0 0
2009-10-17 48 42 45.0 -12.0 20 0 0.11 0.0 0
2009-10-18 47 42 44.5 -12.1 20 0 0.24 0.0 0
2009-10-19 59 37 48.0 -8.3 17 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-20 69 38 53.5 -2.4 11 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-21 70 46 58.0 2.4 7 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-22 77 50 63.5 8.3 1 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-23 63 51 57.0 2.2 8 0 0.36 0.0 0
2009-10-24 72 55 63.5 9.0 1 0 1.83 0.0 0
2009-10-25 65 50 57.5 3.4 7 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-26 61 43 52.0 -1.8 13 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-27 57 45 51.0 -2.4 14 0 0.78 0.0 0
2009-10-28 58 51 54.5 1.4 10 0 1.09 0.0 0
2009-10-29 59 49 54.0 1.2 11 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-30 59 51 55.0 2.6 10 0 0.00 0.0 0
2009-10-31 74 55 64.5 12.4 0 0 0.14 0.0 0

I hate that-- this extended warm summer is really enjoyable outside of the mosquitoes. 

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Looked over some of the 00z-06z/15 models including some of the parameters that SPC and NWS review for svr prediction and no thread at this time, per a well summarized SPC D2 outlook. Marginal (so far) for svr, but gusts/a gust front will develop for our subforum between 3P-8P, west-east, with and ahead of the line of convection.. 45 MPH gusts seem likely but 55+ MPH much less likely. Will rereview Saturday morning for a possible short lead-time thread.  

The SPC D2 outlook in words below...

 

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Potential for a few wind gusts near severe levels will exist across
   portions of the Northeast and vicinity on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A seasonably strong upper trough will shift quickly across the
   eastern U.S. Saturday, with ridging to prevail upstream across the
   remainder of the country.

   At the surface, a sharp cold front -- progged to lie near or just
   east of the Appalachian crest at the start of the day -- clearing
   the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts by evening.  By Sunday
   morning, the front will likely have moved entirely offshore, with
   the exception of South Florida and the Keys.

   ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and into New England...
   It remains apparent that only minimal pre-frontal instability will
   be available across northeastern portions of the U.S. ahead of the
   approaching storm system, and as such, expectations are that
   potential for severe-caliber wind gusts will remain minimal/very
   localized.

   As strong ascent spreads across the area, focused along the front,
   showers and low-topped thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing, and
   should increase somewhat diurnally as what afternoon bolstering of
   CAPE will be possible, reaches its maximum.  Strong flow aloft will
   support fast storm motions, and as such, gusty winds will be likely
   with the low-topped bands of convection.  However, given the weak
   CAPE, degree of convective augmentation of suggests that most gusts
   should remain in the 35 to 45 MPH range.

   Any severe risk ongoing through the afternoon should diminish into
   early evening, due to diurnal stabilization effects.
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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 76°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 81°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 64.7°; 15-Year: 65.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 66.3°; 15-Year: 67.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.5°; 15-Year: 68.3° 

Saturday will be another very warm day.  However, a strong cold could bring a shower or thundershower as it moves across the region.

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

We haven’t had a really cold La Niña November over the last decade. The 4 coupled La Niña years were 2017, 2016, 2011, and 2010. The coldest November was 2019 and it was neutral. 

 

 

 

November NY climate division 4

 

202011 49.6°F 120 3.7°F
201911 42.3°F 29 -3.6°F
201811 43.6°F 55 -2.3°F
201711 45.6°F 85 -0.3°F
201611 48.2°F 115 2.3°F
201511 50.2°F 126 4.3°F
201411 43.8°F 58 -2.1°F
201311 43.7°F 56 -2.2°F
201211 42.8°F 39 -3.1°F
201111 49.8°F 124 3.9°F
201011 46.2°F 96 0.3°F

.

How did the January’s of those winters go? Just looking at this strong signal for October, it’s suggestive of ++EPO with deep cold over Alaska come January: 

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 63degs.(56/70), or +5.

Month to date is  65.5[+4.5].        Could be  64.6[+4.7] by the 23rd.

The only 5-Day period averaging even near Normal, seems centered on the 26th. now.

Reached 80 here yesterday.

Today:  76-80, wind n. to w. to s., sun/clouds.

68*(75%RH) here at 6am.      67* at 7am.         72* at Noon.      Only reached 75* due to slight, but persistent sea breeze.

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With a low of 63°, Newark just set the record for most 60°or warmer minimums in October. The low of 58° at HPN puts it 1 day away from the October 55° or warmer minimum record. FWN also set their new 54° minimum or warmer days record for October.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 
Missing Count
1 2021 12 16
2 2017 11 0
  1971 11 0
  1959 11 0
3 2007 10 0
  1954 10 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 55 
Missing Count
1 1971 13 0
2 2017 12 0
- 2007 12 0
  2021 12 17
3 2018 11 0
- 1954 11 0


 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 54 
Missing Count
1 2021 11 16
2 2007 10 0
3 2017 8 0
4 2018 7 0
- 2012 7 3
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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

tree rings and sediments...

I bought a house out in Sayville in 1995.  Once we moved in we decided to have 10+ large trees removed.  These were large Oaks.  I counted the rings on all of them and the larger ones all dated to 1939.  The island was sparsely populated then however there is no doubt that the destruction to trees in the area had to have been catastrophic following 9/21/1938.  Tree rings can tell you a lot.

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