Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 surprised we'd have a wetter than normal fall-it's been fairly dry since Sept and looks to stay that way for the foreseeable future....GFS/Euro very dry. CMC wetter but looks like a wonky solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: surprised we'd have a wetter than normal fall-it's been fairly dry since Sept and looks to stay that way for the foreseeable future.... Record blocking over Eastern Canada has kept things dry this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 I remember back in 1971 when October was warm to the end...November turned out colder than normal with record cold...December reverted back to warmer than normal...it took until late January for real winter pattern to lock in for a month...like last year February was the coldest snowiest month...the real winter pattern was locked in for a month...1995-96 was locked in from 12/9 to 1/12...then a pause...then three more weeks the beginning of February and on and off in March ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that raging Pacific Jet will bring plenty of moisture to the West Coast in late October. They desperately need the rain/snow there and especially in the SW. If any good systems can make it there in this Nina year it would be a great thing. Usually Nina winters are wet/cold in the NW where it’s not as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 42 minutes ago, jm1220 said: They desperately need the rain/snow there and especially in the SW. If any good systems can make it there in this Nina year it would be a great thing. Usually Nina winters are wet/cold in the NW where it’s not as needed. Looks like an impressive soaking next few weeks possibly down to Central California. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 69/43 split today. Didn’t expect to almost reach 70, nor did I expect to see low 40’s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Newark is currently at 69.7° for the fall. While the sample size is small, all winters since 1991 following the 60° falls were warmer than average. So it will be interesting to see how November turns out. *All departures relative to 1981-2010 DJF Avg temperature of 34.2° *New 1991-2020 DJF avg temperature warmed to 35.3° La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature DJF Avg Temperature 2021 69.7..so far ? 2015 60.9 40.1….+5.9 2017 60.3 35.6...+1.4 2016 60.1 39.0..+4.8 2011 60.1 40.0…+5.8 1994 60.1 36.6..+2.4 2005 60.0 36.2….+2.0 I think the evidence is pretty clear then and currently November looks to start AN. Not as warm as October of course but still mild relative to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think the evidence is pretty clear then and currently November looks to start AN. Not as warm as October of course but still mild relative to normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Warm night, still 60 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: That just confirms the warm start. Maybe things will change mid November but that's way out there. Speaking of warm, next 2 days will approach 80F again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will partly to mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 78° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 62.9°; 15-Year: 63.6° Newark: 30-Year: 64.4°; 15-Year: 65.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 65.6°; 15-Year: 66.1° The warm weather will continue through Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 59degs.(53/65), or +3. Month to date is 64.2[+4.1]. Could be 62.7[+3.8] by the 28th. Went from 49 to 69 here yesterday. Today: 74-78, w. wind, m. sunny. 58*(65%RH) here at 6am. 60* at 9am. 64* at 11am. 67* at Noon. 70* at 1pm. 74* at 3pm. 77* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That just confirms the warm start. Maybe things will change mid November but that's way out there. Speaking of warm, next 2 days will approach 80F again. October could have one heck of a positive anomoly....Dry too now which will add some to the warmth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 https://nypost.com/2021/10/20/nyc-to-be-affected-by-la-higher-snowfall-than-expected-in-november/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: https://nypost.com/2021/10/20/nyc-to-be-affected-by-la-higher-snowfall-than-expected-in-november/ It’s difficult to get more than a trace of snow during a La. Nina November in NYC. La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 2020 0.0 0 2019 0.0 0 2018 6.4 0 2017 T 0 2016 T 0 2015 0.0 0 2014 0.2 0 2013 T 0 2012 4.7 0 2011 0.0 0 2010 T 0 2009 0.0 0 2008 T 0 2007 T 0 2006 0.0 0 2005 T 0 2004 T 0 2003 0.0 0 2002 T 0 2001 0.0 0 2000 0.0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s difficult to get more than a trace of snow during a La. Nina November in NYC. La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 2020 0.0 0 2019 0.0 0 2018 6.4 0 2017 T 0 2016 T 0 2015 0.0 0 2014 0.2 0 2013 T 0 2012 4.7 0 2011 0.0 0 2010 T 0 2009 0.0 0 2008 T 0 2007 T 0 2006 0.0 0 2005 T 0 2004 T 0 2003 0.0 0 2002 T 0 2001 0.0 0 2000 0.0 0 I rather wait until December for winter to kick in . I think many meteorologists are counting on the NAO to remain negative and the weak PV to remain weak until next year which would mean a cold November and December but then warmth for January and February. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I rather wait until December for winter to kick in . I think many meteorologists are counting on the NAO to remain negative and the weak PV to remain weak until next year which would mean a cold November and December but then warmth for January and February. That likely wont get us much snow if that turns out to be true.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That likely wont get us much snow if that turns out to be true.... Agree Hopefully we don't waste it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s difficult to get more than a trace of snow during a La. Nina November in NYC. La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 2020 0.0 0 2019 0.0 0 2018 6.4 0 2017 T 0 2016 T 0 2015 0.0 0 2014 0.2 0 2013 T 0 2012 4.7 0 2011 0.0 0 2010 T 0 2009 0.0 0 2008 T 0 2007 T 0 2006 0.0 0 2005 T 0 2004 T 0 2003 0.0 0 2002 T 0 2001 0.0 0 2000 0.0 0 1995 was the last time a la nina November that had snow...1950, 1951 and 1971 had big storms but with very little snow in the city...upstate New York was clobbered around thanksgiving 1971... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It’s difficult to get more than a trace of snow during a La. Nina November in NYC. La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 2020 0.0 0 2019 0.0 0 2018 6.4 0 2017 T 0 2016 T 0 2015 0.0 0 2014 0.2 0 2013 T 0 2012 4.7 0 2011 0.0 0 2010 T 0 2009 0.0 0 2008 T 0 2007 T 0 2006 0.0 0 2005 T 0 2004 T 0 2003 0.0 0 2002 T 0 2001 0.0 0 2000 0.0 0 Actually all November's are snowless here. In my lifetime 63 years I have seen 4 accumulating snows in November 67,89,2012 and 2018..most have a trace or nothing. Your more likely to get snow in April than November. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: October could have one heck of a positive anomoly....Dry too now which will add some to the warmth Foliage is well behind schedule. Will probably go well into November this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Foliage is well behind schedule. Will probably go well into November this year. I'd say we're still 75% green here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said: Actually all November's are snowless here. In my lifetime 63 years I have seen 4 accumulating snows in November 67,89,2012 and 2018..most have a trace or nothing. Your more likely to get snow in April than November. I think you forgot 1995? I had 4 inches here right at the start of that epic pattern-was very late November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Pretty impressive Northern Hemisphere temperature rise coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The cold will be limited to start November in North America with the SPV going over to Europe and Asia. Yea, I would definitely not be comfortable forecasting a cold and or snowy November in the east right now, after weakening initially early in November, the SPV looks to completely recover and strengthen by month’s end. Also, you have a coupled, strengthening La Niña, strong -PDO, -PMM and the SSTs along and off the east coast are blazing right now, they are going to help feedback into the WAR/SE ridge. The PAC has wanted to stay -PNA/+EPO/+SOI since the beginning of September, it’s been a very persistent, stagnant pattern there. Also, unlike last year’s east-based event, this Niña is definitely more central-based: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Who would ever make a call for November in New York City to be snowy? As someone above pointed out it’s happened a few times AND almost always leads to a nearly snowless winter to follow. As another poster mentioned, a warm Sept Oct and Nov is almost always a sign of a warm winter. In the next 3-4 weeks you will know if winter is going to arrive or if we have to hope for small-ball, pattern, one-off snow events like Feb 2014 or Feb 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Who would ever make a call for November in New York City to be snowy? As someone above pointed out it’s happened a few times AND almost always leads to a nearly snowless winter to follow. As another poster mentioned, a warm Sept Oct and Nov is almost always a sign of a warm winter. In the next 3-4 weeks you will know if winter is going to arrive or if we have to hope for small-ball, pattern, one-off snow events like Feb 2014 or Feb 95 Huh? 2013-14 had 60" of snow. Maybe you're thinking of Jan 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 58 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Also, you have a coupled, strengthening La Niña, strong -PDO, -PMM and the SSTs along and off the east coast are blazing right now, they are going to help feedback into the WAR/SE ridge. The PAC has wanted to stay -PNA/+EPO/+SOI since the beginning of September, it’s been a very persistent, stagnant pattern there. Also, unlike last year’s east-based event, this Niña is definitely more central-based: Yeah, it’s been a long time since we had a cold pool and deep trough in the Northeast Pacific during the fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 384hr GFS looks really good https://ibb.co/XY17hLZ I bet it will trend more -PNA/SE ridge, but if this holds, we did get 5.5" on Nov 15, 2018 down here. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Who would ever make a call for November in New York City to be snowy? As someone above pointed out it’s happened a few times AND almost always leads to a nearly snowless winter to follow. As another poster mentioned, a warm Sept Oct and Nov is almost always a sign of a warm winter. In the next 3-4 weeks you will know if winter is going to arrive or if we have to hope for small-ball, pattern, one-off snow events like Feb 2014 or Feb 95 If the pattern is right then why not ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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