Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I’m starting to very seriously doubt a cold November, in fact I think it’s another warmer than normal month. We have a strengthening, coupled La Niña in place and I don’t see any reason for the -PNA/+EPO/-PDO/-PMM to let up. Even if a -NAO/-AO was to develop with a PAC like that, all it would do is trap the junk maritime Pacific air flooding into Canada. We would need a large scale full pattern change in the PAC and I just don’t see it happening by next month, it’s a stagnant pattern there I'd actually root for that. Save the cold pattern (if it develops) for Dec/Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'd actually root for that. Save the cold pattern (if it develops) for Dec/Jan Maybe it changes for December, but I don’t see anything to support a large scale pattern change in the PAC by November. The PAC, as is, definitely does not support any sustained cold, it’s been the same stagnant pattern there since the beginning of September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 36 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If November is also a warmer than normal month, that should seal it as a 1st or 2nd warmest met fall ever. September was also way above normal While it’s outside the weeklies best range, they do start November warmer than average in the Northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Usually too early for snow and then it breaks just when climo gets cold enough for snow... Exactly. We saw what happened after the record cold in November 18/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Welcome to fall Warmest fall on record so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 You know the Pacific Jet is on steroids when we get a record October low around 955-960 mb west of Washington and Oregon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: You know the Pacific Jet is on steroids when we get a record October low around 955-960 mb west of Washington and Oregon. Nightmare pattern for us if it were mid winter. We need to see big big changes if we want a snowy winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Usually too early for snow and then it breaks just when climo gets cold enough for snow... Let it be cold in December and January when it matters . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Nightmare pattern for us if it were mid winter. We need to see big big changes if we want a snowy winter. Pac ridge drives the winter imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m starting to very seriously doubt a cold November, in fact I think it’s another warmer than normal month. We have a strengthening, coupled La Niña in place and I don’t see any reason for the -PNA/+EPO/-PDO/-PMM/+SOI to let up. Even if a -NAO/-AO was to develop with a PAC like that, all it would do is trap the junk maritime Pacific air flooding into Canada. We would need a large scale full pattern change in the PAC and I just don’t see it happening by next month, it’s a stagnant pattern there It will get cold if the MJO travels into the favorable phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: An amazing rainbow. Thanks Don! Did it get into the 40s at JFK this morning? By the time I woke up it was already 52 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You know the Pacific Jet is on steroids when we get a record October low around 955-960 mb west of Washington and Oregon. they need the snow and cold a lot more than we do, they need to build up the snow pack out west, let's hope it gets down to Flagstaff and Tahoe, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Don! Did it get into the 40s at JFK this morning? By the time I woke up it was already 52 lol Yes. 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: they need the snow and cold a lot more than we do, they need to build up the snow pack out west, let's hope it gets down to Flagstaff and Tahoe, etc. Yeah, that raging Pacific Jet will bring plenty of moisture to the West Coast in late October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Let it be cold in December and January when it matters . A warm fall Oct/Nov guarantees a warm winter. We have to accept that winters will be warm from now on but that's doesn't mean we can't get a lot of snow still. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A warm fall Oct/Nov guarantees a warm winter. We have to accept that winters will be warm from now on but that's doesn't mean we can't get a lot of snow still. October-November had mean temperatures of a half standard deviation or more above normal as recently as 2014 and a very cold winter (2014-15) followed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: October-November had mean temperatures of a half standard deviation or more above normal as recently as 2014 and a very cold winter (2014-15) followed. During a La Nina with a strongly negative fall PDO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: During a La Nina with a strongly negative fall PDO? I didn’t see that in your comment. I’ll look into such winters and post what I find. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A warm fall Oct/Nov guarantees a warm winter. We have to accept that winters will be warm from now on but that's doesn't mean we can't get a lot of snow still. I really don't want to post stuff from last October and November on this board but the same posts by the same people, saying the same exact thing about last winter, and basically every October and November since social media was a thing.,,It's not supposed to be cold and wintry in October and the most part of November. The usual first snowfall in NYC is mid or late December. We got 2 months to go.There is no way of knowing the pattern 2 months out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 On 10/11/2021 at 4:14 PM, forkyfork said: whenever we get sun we go past the forecast high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Just now, forkyfork said: Yep. Almost every time, regardless of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A warm fall Oct/Nov guarantees a warm winter. We have to accept that winters will be warm from now on but that's doesn't mean we can't get a lot of snow still. Not necessarily, there have been warmer than normal October and November in the past that lead to cold/snowy winters. The problem is when all 3 months (September, October, November) are warmer than normal, that it almost always leads to a bad outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: During a La Nina with a strongly negative fall PDO? The sample size is really small. 1970-71 and 1973-74 were fairly cold, but not severely cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The sample size is really small. 1970-71 and 1973-74 were fairly cold, but not severely cold. 1970-71 was pretty cold from Christmas into the first week of Feb...its one of the coldest for that period... hope my math is correct... her is the list... year...Dec 20th-Feb 6th... 1976-77.....23.6... 1947-48.....25.9... 1980-81.....25.9... 1969-70.....26.4... 1993-94.....26.8... 1970-71.....26.9... 1960-61.....27.2... 1975-76.....28.4... 1995-96.....28.7... 1977-78.....28.8... 1983-84.....29.3... 1962-63.....29.4... 2010-11.....29.5... 1967-68.....29.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Not necessarily, there have been warmer than normal October and November in the past that lead to cold/snowy winters. The problem is when all 3 months (September, October, November) are warmer than normal, that it almost always leads to a bad outcome Correct. The guys glossing it over by saying every winter is above normal are missing the point. using the new baseline, it still would be a warmer than normal winter. Lets see what November brings. This week is shot again. Back above normal already, 80 tomorrow, 70s through Friday. It doesn’t signal a cool down or a pattern change, but rather a transient cool shot. Let’s see how we do early next week. If late next week starts to look like 70 again, you know what we are dealing with…and it isnt good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER ACCORDING TO G-D ie. the EURO: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Hopefully that quick lesson in stats will squash some (we know some of you cant help it) of the declarations. yea right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 The Euro weekly forecasts for the next month are usually more reliable a few days before the new month starts. It did exhibit a cold bias for October compared to the actual temperatures. But the pattern of the warmest departures near the Great Lakes worked out very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 i think you're better off using 500mb anomalies. for example in 2015 the seasonal models got the major pacific ridge correct but not the downstream cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 After a chilly start, temperatures moderated under strong sunshine. Highs generally reached the middle and upper 60s across the region. Newark reached 70° for the 171st time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 1985 and 2015 for the 2nd most days on record. Warmer air will return tomorrow. Tomorrow through Friday will be unseasonably warm. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +15.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.595 today. On October 17 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.374 (RMM). The October 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.594 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.6° (3.7° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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