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Hurricane Ida's Remnants


SnowenOutThere
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1 minute ago, birdsofprey02 said:

How does that cell look now, I appear to be right in its path just north of Crofton 

It's continued to look pretty decent. However, LWX hasn't warned it at all. The rotation at times has been pretty broad and not "tight" - we'll see

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Morning AFD from LWX out

AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
430 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of Ida will impact the area today through early Thursday as
it exits to the north and east. High pressure will build over the
area late Thursday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The remnants of Ida will be the main concern for today and tonight
as the center of low pressure is currently situated over central TN
and moving to the NE. Current radar coverage has the initial
interaction with the mid-lat trough and Ida bringing increased
showers and storms for areas along and north of I-66 with some
embedded supercells bringing torrential rainfall near the DC metro
areas and points further north and east.

Some breaks in the initial banding will alleviate rainfall after
morning rush hour and last for a few hours. Areas west of the Blue
Ridge will begin to see the bulk of the precip from Ida by late
morning, bringing rainfall totals of 3-6" with localized higher
amounts across the WV panhandle and western MD to some central MD
areas. Latest QPF max guidance has trended further north into PA,
while still bringing potential widespread heavy rainfall across
portions of the forecast area (totals decrease further SW). With
this in mind, flash flood watches have been issued for the entire
forecast area (early Wednesday morning start for west of the Blue
Ridge Mts, late morning start east of the Blue Ridge Mts). Flash
flooding capabilities in comparison of the two regions would be more
prevalent west of the Blue Ridge Mts in terms of coverage vs east
with those areas being more conditional on strong embedded
thunderstorms that could produce torrential rainfall.

Areas further south and east of the main interaction with the upper
trough and Ida will be the main areas of concern for increased
instability throughout the day. With MLCAPE values continuing to
increase throughout the day (1500+ j/kg) by the early afternoon,
steep low-level lapse rates, 150+ 0-1 km SRH, and 40-50 knots of
flow through the midlevels, the threat for supercell thunderstorms
extending across areas east of the Blue Ridge exists for this
afternoon through tonight. SPC has continued an Enhanced Risk for
severe thunderstorms today for areas near the DC metro area and
points further north and east. Main threats will be damaging wind
gusts and multiple tornadoes possible for the afternoon hours on
through early tonight before conditions begin to improve.

Conditions will improve late tonight from SW to NE as the remnants
of Ida move offshore. Should see most rainfall coverage begin to
dissipate by midnight and 2 AM and move out of the forecast area,
leading to only a few showers near the I-95 corridor.
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11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Wonder if there was any wind damage from the supercell that was not reported due to the time of day. We may see some LSRs later for damage incurred this AM. 

It marched right through our backyard.  Got swirly winds, pounding rain, and tons of lightening.  Looked like a bad scene for maybe 15-20 minutes.  Kiddos all woke up and went downstairs.  Too dark to see tree branches and such right now 

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25 minutes ago, yoda said:

@CAPE should like reading the morning AFD from Mt. Holly

Detailed and good read as usual. Hope it ends up mostly being wrong. Ofc with the primary rain shield well NW, any significant rain here is tied to the convection later today, and it has gotten a tad dry.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Detailed and good read as usual. Hope it ends up mostly being wrong. Ofc with the primary rain shield well NW, any significant rain here is tied to the convection later today, and it has gotten a tad dry.

Not a drop of rain here. Northern Delaware getting good storms.  Heard thunderstorms last 4 hours as they moved just North of my area.  

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Pretty intense storm woke us all up. 6.5”/hr rain rate on the nearby PWS!!

 

2 hours ago, yoda said:

No rain shield for you lol

Major rain shield fail. 2.32”, most of that in 30 minutes. 

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