Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[dWave]

Sun came out for 20 mins now the rain is back, even though its not really showing on radar

[nycsnow]

Pouring in midtown 

[uncle W]

4.60" so far and the Sun is breaking through...

[bluewave]

These record WAR patterns with such strong blocking allow new types tropical cyclone tracks. This was the first Rhode Island landfall passing within 200 miles of Bermuda. Notice the rare track through Rhode Island twice under the block. Luckily, this was minor compared to the Sandy 1 in 700 year track under the record block in 2012.
 

 

 

[RippleEffect]

After a brief shower the sun is trying to poke through. It’s getting noticeably more humid maybe a thunderstorm later! We need the sun now come on we had enough of this pointless summer rain!

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, dWave said:

Yeah I was suprised to see it but it sure is bright, with thin clouds racing by in front

It looked like there was a moonbow!  I could see all different colors.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These record WAR patterns with such strong blocking allow new types tropical cyclone tracks. This was the first Rhode Island landfall passing within 200 miles of Bermuda. Notice the rare track through Rhode Island twice under the block. Luckily, this was minor compared to the Sandy 1 in 700 year track under the record block in 2012.
 

 

 

What would happen if a Cat 2 Hurricane like Sandy was before it transitioned took a track like that and stalled out (or even worse, a track over Central Long Island and stalled out?)

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I think this is a recognized thing with TCs but I have no idea why. Drop size? Drop shape? Fall speed? One day I'll try and learn something about the weather that doesn't have to do with snow. Not today tho.

maybe drop density.....

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Am I correct??? CP now at 9.51 for the month with their 0.93” at 12z on the 6 hr ob????  We do have a chance of 10+ for August.  

We have a chance for 10" from this storm alone

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These record WAR patterns with such strong blocking allow new types tropical cyclone tracks. This was the first Rhode Island landfall passing within 200 miles of Bermuda. Notice the rare track through Rhode Island twice under the block. Luckily, this was minor compared to the Sandy 1 in 700 year track under the record block in 2012.
 

 

 

eventually one of these die rolls is going to be with a cat 3+

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

eventually one of these die rolls is going to be with a cat 3+

That would send NewEng into a multi month blackout.

[weathermedic]

7.72 inches total with this morning's rain here at my station in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn. Let's see if anything develops later this afternoon.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Am I correct??? CP now at 9.51 for the month with their 0.93” at 12z on the 6 hr ob????  We do have a chance of 10+ for August.  

Yes. That’s correct.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

7.72 inches total with this morning's rain here at my station in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn. Let's see if anything develops later this afternoon.

Weird that north Brooklyn got way more

[Jersey Devil]

Storm total 10.04 so far,  NW Bergen County.  Starting Sat PM, currently not raining.

[weathermedic]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weird that north Brooklyn got way more

About 10 miles distance (north-south) between the 2 locations so I would think it's possible.

[NYC10023]

am I missing something here? How can Central Park have totals of 4.47'' as of today, yet 4.45'' fell on Saturday alone? 

[uncle W]

Agnes in 1972 and Sandy as a cat 3 would bury NYC in water...

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, NYC10023 said:

am I missing something here? How can Central Park have totals of 4.47'' as of today, yet 4.45'' fell on Saturday alone? 

where are you getting your info?...

National Weather Service Climate

IEM :: Observation History (iastate.edu)

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, NYC10023 said:

am I missing something here? How can Central Park have totals of 4.47'' as of today, yet 4.45'' fell on Saturday alone? 

Central Park has 3-day rainfall of 8.05” through 10 am.

[NYC10023]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Central Park has 3-day rainfall of 8.05” through 10 am.

thanks, that's what I thought as well. But on the websites for ABC7 and NBC4, they both have that 4.47'' total listed for Central Park. 

I guess the question was more rhetorical as in, where are they getting this number ...

 

AND I just looked again, they were only reporting up until 8:30am yesterday so that explains it. Sorry for confusion, it's early and more coffee is needed. 

 

 

[Intensewind002]

Picked up another .73” of rain at home from these bands moving through so storm total is now at 3.74”

[Stormlover74]

1.39 today, 3.03 yesterday and .46 on Saturday for a storm total of 4.88

[STORMANLI]

3-day total 

4.00"

 

[donsutherland1]

45 minutes ago, NYC10023 said:

thanks, that's what I thought as well. But on the websites for ABC7 and NBC4, they both have that 4.47'' total listed for Central Park. 

I guess the question was more rhetorical as in, where are they getting this number ...

 

AND I just looked again, they were only reporting up until 8:30am yesterday so that explains it. Sorry for confusion, it's early and more coffee is needed. 

 

 

You’re welcome. In the end, yesterday saw 2.67” of rain (very little prior to 9 am). 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.48" of rain so far today

Three day storm total of 5.22"

[nycsnow]

Radar filling in a bit 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

eventually one of these die rolls is going to be with a cat 3+

haven't most of our Cat 3s been overturned with new research?  We've actually had far fewer strong hurricanes get this far north than we did in the 30s-60s period.  As a matter of fact we had at least one hurricane make landfall here every decade from the 30s through the 80s, but none since then.  Even if you allow for Bob barely missing us in 1991, that still means that since 1991 no hurricane has made landfall in the northeast.  Like, anywhere in the northeast.....whats going on?

 

[Tatamy]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

haven't most of our Cat 3s been overturned with new research?  We've actually had far fewer strong hurricanes get this far north than we did in the 30s-60s period.  As a matter of fact we had at least one hurricane make landfall here every decade from the 30s through the 80s, but none since then.  Even if you allow for Bob barely missing us in 1991, that still means that since 1991 no hurricane has made landfall in the northeast.  Like, anywhere in the northeast.....whats going on?

 

How about Sandy in 2012?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

How about Sandy in 2012?

I remember waking up that morning , checking the radar and seeing a sub 940 low about to pull west.  It was the most fascinating thing I ever witnessed.

I also remember people calling bust during the day when nothing was happening.