Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

higher totals than that

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It'll linger around for a while but it seems like the back edge is inching its way north. We'll see I guess. It's definitely not over north of me through NYC and Hudson Valley. Sort of the same precip shield/orientation as 2/25/10 with the pivoting NW low. 

I heard a tornado was spotted in NE PA in the Poconos- between Scranton and Allentown!

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

higher totals than that

They dont remember Floyd.....

You think this could get as bad as Floyd don't you?

 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, gmendevils8204 said:

Irene redux?

more like Floyd

[nycsnow]

Parts of northern brooklyn are definitely going to see close to 10

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

more like Floyd

Won't be as bad as Floyd in '99

[Jersey Devil]

On the Ramapo, Irene was worse than Floyd.  Not sure about precip totals, but flooding was worse in Irene.

[forkyfork]

i'm just talking about raw totals. irene maxed out around 8" in nnj but there was a record wet month preceding it

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Total non-event in central Suffolk.  The models gave me 5-9".   I'm under 2"   

could be some bigger totals tomorrow as it swings back  east.   I've had about an inch here so far which is a massive bust.

[forkyfork]

there's also a severe threat tomorrow afternoon 

[nycsnow]

Clouds moving back in and rain starting up again here in south Brooklyn….. never got into the blue sky it was close though 

[bluewave]

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i'm just talking about raw totals. irene maxed out around 8" in nnj but there was a record wet month preceding it

Yeah we had 10" here in one day before Irene came along

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Clouds moving back in and rain starting up again here in south Brooklyn….. never got into the blue sky it was close though 

I saw blue patches and the skies got bright but that was it

 

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Total non-event in central Suffolk.  The models gave me 5-9".   I'm under 2"   

Awesome job by the GFS especially. Literally the swath it had the heavy rain for had the least of the tri state area.  
 

Hamptons might not even have 1”. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Awesome job by the GFS especially. Literally the swath it had the heavy rain for had the least of the tri state area.  
 

Hamptons might not even have 1”. 

We should have just gone with climo, heaviest rainfall totals for those more than 100 miles west of the eye, progressively lesser as you get closer to the point of landfall and even less further east.

[nycsnow]

Is this band gonna swing back through nyc area or should I keep drifting north

[gpsnavigator]

Sparta, NJ has been getting deluged now for an hour plus.  I don't have specific totals as I don't have a great gauge here but there are plenty of stations online.

Judging by the radar, we're going to have a issue if this doesn't break up or move on pretty soon.

[lee59]

Rain stopped here and blue sky to the south.

[guinness77]

Sky to my south is absolutely gorgeous. Sky to my north is as ominously gray as can get. No wind whatsoever. 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

there's also a severe threat tomorrow afternoon 

Lee Goldberg just said "we're playing by different rules now with our extreme events"  We all know what he's talking about.

Close to 8 inches now in NYC, at least they measure rainfall well!

 

Lee also said that the tornado in NE PA is a warning shot for what could happen in our area tomorrow.

[jdt]

2 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

Sparta, NJ has been getting deluged now for an hour plus.  I don't have specific totals as I don't have a great gauge here but there are plenty of stations online.

Judging by the radar, we're going to have a issue if this doesn't break up or move on pretty soon.

I was at 2.52” as of 5:45pm via the Stratus rain gauge. That’s total  since yesterday evening. Some of the heaviest rain thus far has been in past 1/2 hr thus likey closing in on 3” at this point.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

Sky to my south is absolutely gorgeous. Sky to my north is as ominously gray as can get. No wind whatsoever. 

Wow I see that here too.  Why is that part of the sky an electric blue?  It's pretty amazing, no haze even with all this humidity.

 

[Rjay]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Awesome job by the GFS especially. Literally the swath it had the heavy rain for had the least of the tri state area.  
 

Hamptons might not even have 1”. 

The Euro and Ukie gave 5+ over and over.   I guess rain finds the same areas it always does regardless of track. 

[Gravity Wave]

The models struggled with this storm up to the last minute with virtually every aspect other than timing.

[guinness77]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow I see that here too.  Why is that part of the sky an electric blue?  It's pretty amazing, no haze even with all this humidity.

 

I had to take a picture. It’s amazing the contrast between my front yard and back yard. Haha, I think I’m annoying my wife obsessing about it. 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We should have just gone with climo, heaviest rainfall totals for those more than 100 miles west of the eye, progressively lesser as you get closer to the point of landfall and even less further east.

And that NJ somehow will get the heaviest rain amounts. Always works out some way. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The Euro and Ukie gave 5+ over and over.   I guess rain finds the same areas it always does regardless of track. 

It was the bend NW which models were showing but it’s see to believe. That plus the bent SW rain axis and it’s congrats NJ as usual. 

[SnoSki14]

Lucked out big time. Less than 2" 

[LoboLeader1]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

That part of the BRP is always prone to flooding, seen it flood during a heavy t-storm.