August 2021

[wdrag]

No time to thread  Aug 5-15 , but if this continues on the 12z cycle will begin a heat wave- (near 100HI next week) iso FF/6" will thread late this eve.  EC continues burst of showers/iso thunder this Thurs-Fri while 00z/2 GFS and GGEM say no.  

90F may begin Fri after whatever WAA event occurs Thurs??  

MOS now has EWR 91F Sunday and both EC OP and GFS OP have a heat wave here next week... with substantial CAPE and KI from time to time and weak steering flow aloft. Suggests big thunderstorm potential on at least 3 or 4 days between the next two weekends,  probably interior but could leak into NYC.  NAEFS continues emphatic about warmer than normal next week and a bit beyond.  

Curiously:00z/2 EC has a significant 850 VT moving nwwd in the W Atlc next week...  whether thats real and results in a TC? 

[LoboLeader1]

60 here this AM

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 77degs.(70/85), or about Normal.

63*(87%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.           80* by 4pm.        Reached 83* near 6pm.

Still no repeat of the Cat.2 shown on the very first GFS run of the month.

Discontinuous HW still slated for August 6---15+ ???

[SnoSki14]

Massive NW Atlantic ridge setting up 2nd week of August plus tropics firing up. 

Could be an interesting period. Very hot & potentially stormy too.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and comfortable. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 82°

Heat will likely return next weekend.

[lee59]

As it looks like we warm up next week, the far west will be cooling down to below normal in many spots. Good to see many areas out their be more normal with their temperatures the past few weeks and get above normal rainfall. Hopefully it can continue which could cut down on the fires and drought situation.

[SACRUS]

67/59 after a low of 57.  Another gorgeous day shaping up before the migration back towards a Florida style feel.

 

Migration continues to look like cooler than normal 8/2 - 8/4 with Western Ridge forcing a tough into the EC.

The Western Atlantic ridge is expanding west starting 8/5 and a warm / southerly humid flow develops.  Trough / boundary  is forced west of the area (close by) but still expect dew points to climb and daily rain chances through the coming weekend 8/8.

 

Trough lifts out and flow flattens as ridging build along the EC and allows heat from the western heat factory to come east 8/8 through next week.  ECM showing seasons longest and perhaps strongest heat signal next week. We'll see where the W. Atl Ridge positions and if rain / clouds muddy up a return to a sustained warm to hot pattern.  Otherwise chance of 90s / heat starting 8.8.

[Brian5671]

models starting to go further east with the big rains

[Will - Rutgers]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If the 12z Euro is correct, then we have a shot at our first August 100° in quite some time next week.

well hopefully it's punctuated by some storms at least

[RippleEffect]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

If the 12z Euro is correct, then we have a shot at our first August 100° in quite some time next week.

 

 

I think this goes down to lower 90’s by the time we get there.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

I think this goes down to lower 90’s by the time we get there.

I think ewr hits 105. Nyc 97

[wdrag]

No thread yet on  Aug 5-15.  GFS OP may be winning the war with EC OP on qpf for this Thursday as the GFS and to some extent, the GGEM have been dry.  !8Z 3K NAM is dry but NOT it's 12K version.  I'm probably going to have to make a move tomorrow, if Thursday modeling goes back in on qpf.  

Otherwise,  near 90 seems plausible EWR only (interior coastal plain) Fri-Sun, then the heat is on next week. How long and intense??  I get a little leery of EC extremes beyond 7days (next Tuesdays HI near 105?)  However, will check ensembles, NCEP D7 HI and multiple models Tuesday.  There is no doubt heat returns next week.  Does it get interrupted with a backdoor?  Unlikely.  Can it continue beyond the 15th?  Possibly...  

NAEFS continues bullish on above normal temps and as per your observation of multiple ensembles. So, near 100HI next week. I think iso FF/6" between the 5th-15th.  Looks like a decent chance of heavy showers-tstms sometime this weekend, then again multiple times next week from Tuesday forward...generally I95 corridor northwestward... does not look like a LI thunderstorm scenario next week...  (could be different there for this Thursday-early Fri?)

Tropics---just need to wait. 

[donsutherland1]

Generally somewhat below normal readings will persist into the weekend. Afterward, a much warmer pattern could develop for a time. The temperature could be pressing 90° during the weekend.

In the near-term the temperature will likely reach 110° or above in Phoenix for the first time since July 11. In southern Europe into the Middle East, an extreme heat wave will continue to scorch the region. Numerous areas in Greece, Turkey into the Middle East saw readings at or above 110°. Damman, Saudi Arabia reached 123°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +4.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.762 today.

On July 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.410 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.931 (RMM).

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Generally somewhat below normal readings will persist into the weekend. Afterward, a much warmer pattern could develop for a time. The temperature could be pressing 90° during the weekend.

In the near-term the temperature will likely reach 110° or above in Phoenix for the first time since July 11. In southern Europe into the Middle East, an extreme heat wave will continue to scorch the region. Numerous areas in Greece, Turkey into the Middle East saw readings at or above 110°. Damman, Saudi Arabia reached 123°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +4.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.762 today.

On July 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.410 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.931 (RMM).

 

Don what about the usual suspects that challenge Death Valley temps in the Middle East?  Like Ahwaz, Iran and Basra, Iraq?  I looked up all the towns that have recorded 128 and higher and came up with those and a couple of others in the region like Moenjo Daro, Pakistan and Turbat, Pakistan.  Any of those could become the next 130.....

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

I am kind of surprised that we haven’t had a 100° in August since 2006. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001	105	0
2	1948	103	0
3	2005	102	0
-	1953	102	0
-	1949	102	0
-	1944	102	0
4	2006	101	0
5	2002	100	0
-	1993	100	0
-	1973	100	0
-	1955	100	0

since 2001 for the city and who knows how long for JFK- 2002 or 1983 or 1980?

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

If the 12z Euro is correct, then we have a shot at our first August 100° in quite some time next week.

 

 

for August 10th right?  The GFS was predicting that a week ago lol.  How long is this heat supposed to last for and is August 10th the highest it will get?

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

If the 12z Euro is correct, then we have a shot at our first August 100° in quite some time next week.

 

 

and why are upper 70s and 80s predicted for long island?  Is that a malfunction of the model where it thinks long island is the ocean, like it does with snowfall maps?

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, SACRUS said:

67/59 after a low of 57.  Another gorgeous day shaping up before the migration back towards a Florida style feel.

 

Migration continues to look like cooler than normal 8/2 - 8/4 with Western Ridge forcing a tough into the EC.

The Western Atlantic ridge is expanding west starting 8/5 and a warm / southerly humid flow develops.  Trough / boundary  is forced west of the area (close by) but still expect dew points to climb and daily rain chances through the coming weekend 8/8.

 

Trough lifts out and flow flattens as ridging build along the EC and allows heat from the western heat factory to come east 8/8 through next week.  ECM showing seasons longest and perhaps strongest heat signal next week. We'll see where the W. Atl Ridge positions and if rain / clouds muddy up a return to a sustained warm to hot pattern.  Otherwise chance of 90s / heat starting 8.8.

Tony as far as you can see, how long is that heat supposed to last and what day would be peak heat?  Before next Friday the 13th?

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/90), or +4.

The GFS ENS. is basically all 90's starting the 6th.        Other models much lower.       Little rain during next 10 days on any model,  it seems.

70*(90%RH) here at 6am, overcast.          83* was high here.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has the warm up during the week of the 9th to 16th.

 

thanks Chris, and peak heat is on the 10th?

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has the first chance of 90s in the warm spots this Firiday.

But does it say what day would have the highest chances for the coast (JFK) to hit 100?

 

[wdrag]

No thread from me this morning... too much hype for too much uncertainty.  I think LI is going to see pretty decent rainfall (1") east e part of LI Wed-Thursday (weak nor'easter).  

As per prior posts...near 90F heat begins interior Fri afternoon.  Biggest heat may be delayed til Wednesday-Thursday of next week.  I see only about 19C on the ensembles at 850MB

Rainfall: I still think spot 6" by the 15th but it's not worth a thread since modeling is much less (esp WPC thru D7). Looks like slow moving heavy showers/few thunder this coming weekend and then next week from Tuesday onward.  Probably a couple of wet microburst SVR's in there across NJ/se NYS/CT middle and end of next week.  

Heat and thunderstorm activity should linger past the 15th..unsure for how long but into the 17th is possible.

The 90F heat looks fairly routine for summer (imo) and mainly interior, and the qpf is spread out enough geographically,  so these factors limit the value of any thread, at least at this time. Will have two try to pick these qpf events off, as they approach within 2 days and have enough geographic coverage to warrant interest. 

Beautifully cool morning,

Walt  710A Tuesday Aug 3.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It isn’t showing that kind of heat for JFK through at least 10 days since its forecasting a S to SW flow heatwave with high dew points.

ugh we're getting the dirty impure kind of "heat" not a direct shot from the West?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

No thread from me this morning... too much hype for too much uncertainty.  I think LI is going to see pretty decent rainfall (1") east e part of LI Wed-Thursday (weak nor'easter).  

As per prior posts...near 90F heat begins interior Fri afternoon.  Biggest heat may be delayed til Wednesday-Thursday of next week.  I see only about 19C on the ensembles at 850MB

Rainfall: I still think spot 6" by the 15th but it's not worth a thread since modeling is much less (esp WPC thru D7). Looks like slow moving heavy showers/few thunder this coming weekend and then next week from Tuesday onward.  Probably a couple of wet microburst SVR's in there across NJ/se NYS/CT middle and end of next week.  

Heat and thunderstorm activity should linger past the 15th..unsure for how long but into the 17th is possible.

The 90F heat looks fairly routine for summer (imo) and mainly interior, and the qpf is spread out enough geographically,  so these factors limit the value of any thread, at least at this time. Will have two try to pick these qpf events off, as they approach within 2 days and have enough geographic coverage to warrant interest. 

Beautifully cool morning,

Walt  710A Tuesday Aug 3.

sounds like climo regular kind of low 90s to perhaps 95 kind of heat we see every year.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what about the usual suspects that challenge Death Valley temps in the Middle East?  Like Ahwaz, Iran and Basra, Iraq?  I looked up all the towns that have recorded 128 and higher and came up with those and a couple of others in the region like Moenjo Daro, Pakistan and Turbat, Pakistan.  Any of those could become the next 130.....

 

I don’t think any of them will reach 130. 125-126 is possible during the height of the heat wave.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy and comfortable. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 80°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.6°; 15-Year: 85.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.1°; 15-Year: 87.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 87.8°

Heat will likely return during the weekend.

[LoboLeader1]

64 here, DP 53/RH 69

[SACRUS]

Clouds and Easterly flow.  Cool and cloudy next two days but we should start getting more southerly wind as the Western Atlantic ridge backs west and flow is much more humid 8/5 - 8/8/

Florida style pattern till Mid August starts Thursday.

Progression remains the same Western ridge pushing trough into the east as the western atlantic ridge backs west 8/5 and beyond.  Humid  warm to hot with rain chances .  Trough lifts out and flow flattens a bit and turns more SW by 8/8 and into next week.  Last night guidance shows hint of smaller cut offs which can cause lots of rain and onshore flow that could limit the strong heat.  Seems to be one NC/VA coast on some guidance Mon-Wed so will need to watch. 

Otherwise the heat from the west comes east and could offer the hottest temps since late June or in the extreme of the season . Multiple 90s chances and the overall warmth looks to continue into Mid month as of now.

[bluewave]

The latest PNA forecast is even more extreme. The GEFS maxes out near a ridiculous +4. The highest ever in August was just +3.1. I think that this is why the models have such a sharp rainfall cutoff west of NYC. A piece of the Western heat comes east when the PNA begins to flatten later this week.

 

[thunderbolt]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The latest PNA forecast is even more extreme. The GEFS maxes out near a ridiculous +4. The highest ever in August was just +3.1. I think that this is why the models have such a sharp rainfall cutoff west of NYC. A piece of the Western heat comes east when the PNA begins to flatten later this week.

 

Just imagine if you would’ve shifted that 150 miles west oh boy