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August 2021


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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Newark has a shot at 35 or more days reaching 90° this year.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 54 0
2 1993 49 0
3 1988 43 0
4 2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
5 2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0
6 1994 39 0
- 1944 39 0
7 2005 37 0
- 1987 37 0
8 2018 36 0
- 1949 36 0
9 2015 35 0
10 1961 34 0
11 2012 33 0
- 1999 33 0
- 1995 33 0
- 1966 33 0
12 1955 32 0
- 1953 32 0
- 1943 32 0
13 2020 31 0
- 2011 31 0
- 1973 31 0
- 1952 31 0
14 1957 28 0
15 2021 27 150
- 2019 27 0
- 2006 27 0
- 1989 27 0
- 1980 27 0
- 1941 27 0

2021 has the 12th hottest temperature for Newark (tied seven other years) back on 6/30...

Newarks hottest temps...

108 7/12/2011

105 9/2/1953

105 8/9/2001

105 7/10/1993

105 7/8/1993

105 7/4/1949

105 7/3/1966

104 7/18/2012

104 7/15/1995

104 7/9/1993

104 7/9/1936

103 6/30/2021+ previous years...

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Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat cooler than normal. Afterward, a warmer regime will try to develop. Next week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month.

Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was -10.38 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.196 today.

The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +3.210. That exceeded the August monthly record of +3.160, which was set on August 1, 2009.

On August 2 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.295 (RMM). The August 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.390 (RMM).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/90), or +4.

69*(83%RH) here at 6am, overcast.

While the idiotic GFS highs of yesterday are gone, the ENS. is still AN for the next 15 days straight.       Rain is Normal to BN.

GFS still can not coherently show any back-to-back runs with that potential tropical circulation, which first showed up on August 01 for one run and only sporadically since.

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On 8/3/2021 at 10:56 AM, bluewave said:

The latest PNA forecast is even more extreme. The GEFS maxes out near a ridiculous +4. The highest ever in August was just +3.1. I think that this is why the models have such a sharp rainfall cutoff west of NYC. A piece of the Western heat comes east when the PNA begins to flatten later this week.

785BEDD5-4AF2-40AC-91FD-4AACE65D54E7.thumb.gif.7d8c24276e31e5f51b3e2bded4f09d05.gif
 

5AB1AF1D-10E2-4E61-83AA-7C15A3D99253.gif.6c0eca38081aa072e39769b7be66468b.gif

isn't the High pushing in from the West causing the sharp rainfall cutoff?

 

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Looks like the coming warm up will be battling backdoor cold fronts. Notice how the weekend backdoor snuck up on the models. So we’ll have to see where the frontal boundary stalls out to know how warm the temperatures get here next week. I think the record +PNA is resulting in a stronger high over Canada this weekend.

New run

DC754118-52A0-4B48-AB55-8CB277667DE8.thumb.png.b8d7e6a33127a142a826f0e2899173f5.png

Old run

 

4F20847A-E642-4CB8-A84B-4CFF2A769627.thumb.png.c9b6b7ae77179c7519bdc8e012a9213c.png

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On 8/3/2021 at 3:34 PM, jm1220 said:

It's west though from 0z. The WAR has something to say about this too. Probably a good soaking for especially the city and east upcoming.

I've stopped liking the WAR it increases humidity but not actual heat.  We need a nice big ridge from the West to give us a truly hot summer.  I hope the WAR goes to the Azores on vacation for the rest of the summer.

 

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Morning thoughts…

Western sections of the area will be mostly sunny while early clouds will give way to sunshine elsewhere in the region. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 83°

Philadelphia: 85°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.5°

Tomorrow will turn much warmer.

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Looks like we just set the new all-time positive PNA record. The previous highest was +3.328 on 7-2-82. These daily records are preliminary so we may have to wait for the CPC to post the official values at the end of the month.

05Aug2021 0.37339E+01

D48EC301-0345-4431-BB0B-64FAFB81402C.gif.20d3e85b0853a92d1b2797ef52e67f7e.gif

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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Humidity has been uncomfortable here on Long Island this summer but the actual temperatures have not been bad, pretty much normal the past few months. June was a little above and July a little below.

The higher dew points have been the big story on Long Island so far this summer. Islip had the highest June average dew point on record with July finishing  6th highest. The June average temperature was 7th warmest while July only ranked 19th. 
 

7629AC17-C085-4D8C-85B2-66CE8CCD7279.thumb.png.d425a7c7ef2e9ea516a67c19004b9323.png

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The higher dew points have been the big story on Long Island so far this summer. Islip had the highest June average dew point on record with July finishing  6th highest. The June average temperature was 7th warmest while July only ranked 19th. 
 

7629AC17-C085-4D8C-85B2-66CE8CCD7279.thumb.png.d425a7c7ef2e9ea516a67c19004b9323.png

 

it's annoying to have all this humidity and not the heat.  Is the Atlantic more to blame or the Gulf of Mexico?  I read that if we could remove the Gulf of Mexico or at the very least set up a high mountain range north of it (like the Himalayas are north of the Bay of Bengal), our summers would be much less humid and much nicer (meaning hot and dry).

 

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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Now that we are in the real hurricane season, things are getting a little busier with systems starting to come off Africa and across the Atlantic.

let's get a CAT 3 to take the path of Isias last August.  That would make things interesting around here!

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's annoying to have all this humidity and not the heat.  Is the Atlantic more to blame or the Gulf of Mexico?  I read that if we could remove the Gulf of Mexico or at the very least set up a high mountain range north of it (like the Himalayas are north of the Bay of Bengal), our summers would be much less humid and much nicer (meaning hot and dry).

 

I won’t go anymore OT but if there were a website that you could go to and experiment with different physical geographic parameters that would be a fascinating place for me to go spend my free time. Something like a climatic/meteorological sandbox.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Euro backed off on the heat for next week. It continues to correct stronger with the high pressure exiting New England. So we get into a humid SE flow.

 

017C87A6-8819-4227-B25E-FA16962FF025.thumb.png.b31d8f763832c29f247f8eb9128a595e.png
6F8EE9D1-C8F5-4302-81B4-5BAF9DDD784B.thumb.png.47c72378c317f1779caa01626ea89e98.png

 

Not surprised, has been a theme this whole summer it seems.  Take the under on the extended heat along the coast.  Inland locations from C NJ on S&W look to roast for 5 days of 90+ though.

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1 hour ago, HailMan06 said:

I won’t go anymore OT but if there were a website that you could go to and experiment with different physical geographic parameters that would be a fascinating place for me to go spend my free time. Something like a climatic/meteorological sandbox.

not a site but a program it's called universe sandbox.

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