August 2021

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea my area got a good soaking from Elsa, I also lost a large tree. If it wasn't for that storm I might have a mild drought situation.

Early August 2009 (year referenced by Klotzbach) also saw the August record PNA+ that was shattered in recent days.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/6/2021 at 8:32 AM, bluewave said:

The ASOS at JFK is near a marshy area right on Jamaica Bay. So it’s always going to have a lower amount of 90° days than LGA and EWR. Getting over 20 days requires a high number of westerly flow days which has only happened 3 times. Even so,JFK still had numerous top 10s in recent years with all the humid onshore flow. 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	32	0
2	1983	26	0
3	2002	21	0
4	1971	18	0
-	1949	18	0
5	2005	17	0
-	1991	17	0
6	2012	16	0
-	1959	16	3
-	1955	16	2
7	2016	15	0
-	1995	15	0
-	1961	15	0
8	1999	14	0
-	1988	14	0
-	1966	14	0
-	1952	14	0
9	2011	13	0
-	1993	13	0
-	1984	13	0
-	1977	13	0
-	1970	13	0
-	1969	13	0
-	1963	13	0
10	2020	12	0
-	2015	12	0
-	2006	12	0
-	2003	12	0
-	1978	12	0
-	1968	12	0
-	1953	12	0

 

But the humid onshore flow is because climate change has relocated the Bermuda ridge further to the north right?  The SW part of Nassau County is hotter than JFK so I agree about the bad placement of the JFK sensor, it should be on the north side of the airport, near Rosedale or North Woodmere.  Farmingdale and Islip haven't seen any 100 degree days either and they are further inland than JFK is though.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/6/2021 at 8:32 AM, bluewave said:

The ASOS at JFK is near a marshy area right on Jamaica Bay. So it’s always going to have a lower amount of 90° days than LGA and EWR. Getting over 20 days requires a high number of westerly flow days which has only happened 3 times. Even so,JFK still had numerous top 10s in recent years with all the humid onshore flow. 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	32	0
2	1983	26	0
3	2002	21	0
4	1971	18	0
-	1949	18	0
5	2005	17	0
-	1991	17	0
6	2012	16	0
-	1959	16	3
-	1955	16	2
7	2016	15	0
-	1995	15	0
-	1961	15	0
8	1999	14	0
-	1988	14	0
-	1966	14	0
-	1952	14	0
9	2011	13	0
-	1993	13	0
-	1984	13	0
-	1977	13	0
-	1970	13	0
-	1969	13	0
-	1963	13	0
10	2020	12	0
-	2015	12	0
-	2006	12	0
-	2003	12	0
-	1978	12	0
-	1968	12	0
-	1953	12	0

 

1983, 2002 and 2010 are my 3 all time favorite summers! and as great as 2010 was and the only one with more than 30 90 degree days, 1983 actually maxed out the combo of high heat and humidity.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/6/2021 at 8:32 AM, bluewave said:

The ASOS at JFK is near a marshy area right on Jamaica Bay. So it’s always going to have a lower amount of 90° days than LGA and EWR. Getting over 20 days requires a high number of westerly flow days which has only happened 3 times. Even so,JFK still had numerous top 10s in recent years with all the humid onshore flow. 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	32	0
2	1983	26	0
3	2002	21	0
4	1971	18	0
-	1949	18	0
5	2005	17	0
-	1991	17	0
6	2012	16	0
-	1959	16	3
-	1955	16	2
7	2016	15	0
-	1995	15	0
-	1961	15	0
8	1999	14	0
-	1988	14	0
-	1966	14	0
-	1952	14	0
9	2011	13	0
-	1993	13	0
-	1984	13	0
-	1977	13	0
-	1970	13	0
-	1969	13	0
-	1963	13	0
10	2020	12	0
-	2015	12	0
-	2006	12	0
-	2003	12	0
-	1978	12	0
-	1968	12	0
-	1953	12	0

 

why is 1993 not further up on this list?  We had a mega heatwave in July and multiple days over 100 even at JFK

 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/6/2021 at 9:36 AM, bluewave said:

The NWS had their major upgrade back in the 1990s. So it was a joint effort between the NWS and FAA. Each ASOS has to maintain sitting rules which are in the handbook for accurate measurements.  I believe the NWS Eastern region HQ near ISP is in charge of maintaining the network So that may be the place to ask about the Central Park ASOS violating the sitting rules with trees blocking the sensors. 
 

https://www.weather.gov/erh/ERDivisions

it seems like the problems started when the ASOS system was installed, so what was the system we had before ASOS and why was it more accurate (I also see all the unknown precip type reports and bad wind reports we have thanks to the ASOS.  What was the purpose of switching to ASOS- haven't they heard if it's broke dont "fix" it?)

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But the humid onshore flow is because climate change has relocated the Bermuda ridge further to the north right?  The SW part of Nassau County is hotter than JFK so I agree about the bad placement of the JFK sensor, it should be on the north side of the airport, near Rosedale or North Woodmere.  Farmingdale and Islip haven't seen any 100 degree days either and they are further inland than JFK is though.

 

The more humid  onshore flow since 2015 could be related to the AMOC slowdown. High pressure keeps building east of New England where that warm pool is located. Notice how the ridge was to our west in 2010 giving us the record westerly flow heat. The changes in the Pacific since 2015 are also influencing the pattern.

 

[SACRUS]

Warm - Humid - Hot pattern (Florida-style) the next 7 days or more.  Clouds may muddy up and limit 90s today but the humidity is here.  Tomorrow (8/ ) and Monday (8/9)are onshore a bit from weak upper low traversing through a weakness in the ridge but inland areas can grab some 90s.  Tue (8/10) through Sat (8/14) wide spread 90s and high humidity. Peak of the heat looks Thu (8/12) through Sat (8/14) wit h 850 temps >18c and near 20C. 

Beyond there a cold front comes through next Sunday (8/15).  But warming behind it looks likely.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The more humid  onshore flow since 2015 could be related to the AMOC slowdown. High pressure keeps building east of New England where that warm pool is located. Notice how the ridge was to our west in 2010 giving us the record westerly flow heat. The changes in the Pacific since 2015 are also influencing the pattern.

 

Good points!  I wonder if this slowdown is also responsible for more TCs moving northerly and even northwesterly into the coast that has occurred since then as well as our pattern of intense coastal huggers we have seen in the last few winters?

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Warm - Humid - Hot pattern (Florida-style) the next 7 days or more.  Clouds may muddy up and limit 90s today but the humidity is here.  Tomorrow (8/ ) and Monday (8/9)are onshore a bit from weak upper low traversing through a weakness in the ridge but inland areas can grab some 90s.  Tue (8/10) through Sat (8/14) wide spread 90s and high humidity. Peak of the heat looks Thu (8/12) through Sat (8/14) wit h 850 temps >18c and near 20C. 

Beyond there a cold front comes through next Sunday (8/15).  But warming behind it looks likely.

Peak heat near 95?

 

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Peak heat near 95?

 

Looks like the winds will finally go SW from Wed into Fri. So that will probably be the next shot for the warm spots to go 95+. 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the winds will finally go SW from Wed into Fri. So that will probably be the next shot for the warm spots to go 95+. 

Chris, does it look like the hottest of the weather will be between Wednesday and Saturday and then a drop off after that?

 

[qg_omega]

On 8/5/2021 at 8:34 AM, Brian5671 said:

many times we see forecast highs increase as we get closer to the period.  Upton is usually conservative

Looks normal next week still 

[Rjay]

5 hours ago, rclab said:

So much for my powers of observation and comprehension I’ll relate that to him. As always

Tell him KNYC 

[lee59]

A lot of heavy rain DC-Baltimore and east, slowly moving up the coast. Will it get here.

[forkyfork]

another 90 for newark 

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But the humid onshore flow is because climate change has relocated the Bermuda ridge further to the north right?  The SW part of Nassau County is hotter than JFK so I agree about the bad placement of the JFK sensor, it should be on the north side of the airport, near Rosedale or North Woodmere.  Farmingdale and Islip haven't seen any 100 degree days either and they are further inland than JFK is though.

 

Why should it be relocated?

 

It accurately reflects JFK weather which is vastly different than the urban city or urban Nassau.

 

Ive seen everything from accumulating snow to dense fog on the lower half of JFK that the upper half may not be experiencing.

 

But guess what is on the lower half? The majority of the landing runways.

 

Pilots care about the weather where the plane is touching down.

Airport ASOS’ exist to give pilots and ATC the most accurate weather information for safe operations.

 

 

[TheManWithNoFace]

The 12z euro is 2-5" across the inner and outer coastal plains of NJ tonight if you didn't check. 

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

The 12z euro is 2-5" across the inner and outer coastal plains of NJ tonight if you didn't check. 

 

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

The 12z euro is 2-5" across the inner and outer coastal plains of NJ tonight if you didn't check. 

Meanwhile the NWS is calling for a 30% chance of showers for my area in their current forecast for tonight. there does seem to be a fairly sharp cut off in the rain. Just west of the DC to Baltimore area nothing and just east good rains.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Why should it be relocated?

 

It accurately reflects JFK weather which is vastly different than the urban city or urban Nassau.

 

Ive seen everything from accumulating snow to dense fog on the lower half of JFK that the upper half may not be experiencing.

 

But guess what is on the lower half? The majority of the landing runways.

 

And guess which weather pilots care about? The weather where the plane is touching down.

And guess what pilots dont care about? Nassau County/NYC weather.

Airport ASOS’ exist to give pilots and ATC the most accurate weather information for safe operations.p

 

 

well I'm taking some online flying lessons (dont ask why- I'm bored lol) and I can attest to how even slightly different temperature/pressure conditions can affect how planes fly.  I was looking at it more from a perspective that we should have multiple sensors at different parts of the airport to more accurately affect local climate, especially since some of the other data I look at from local weather stations may not be very accurate.  JFK also seems to consistently underdo on snowfall totals.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Meanwhile the NWS is calling for a 30% chance of showers for my area in their current forecast for tonight. there does seem to be a fairly sharp cut off in the rain. Just west of the DC to Baltimore area nothing and just east good rains.

I'd go with the NWS forecast, recent history suggests they are right to be conservative with this.

 

[doncat]

Yeah tough forecast with such model disagreements so close in.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I agree about the bad placement of the JFK sensor, it should be on the north side of the airport, near Rosedale or North Woodmere.

I wasn’t criticizing the placement of the JFK ASOS. It's got a great sitting in accordance with all the ASOS guidelines. It’s located near the NE portion of the airport not far from SW Nassau.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

I wasn’t criticizing the placement of the JFK ASOS. It's got a great sitting in accordance with all the ASOS guidelines. It’s located near the NE portion of the airport not far from the 5 towns area in Nassau. 

 

Oh this is awesome placement!  But it still seems to underperform on snowfall measurements lol.  Unless the snowfall is measured at a different part of the airport?

 

I notice that my temps don't stabilize as quickly as JFK's do on seabreeze days, we usually hold onto hotter temps for about an hour or two longer.  I guess living in an urban part of SW Nassau with lots of buildings close together could hold off the seabreeze longer than the open area surrounding JFK?

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, doncat said:

Yeah tough forecast with such model disagreements so close in.

This would be crazy if this was happening in winter.  Basically a narrow area of heavy precip and almost nothing on either side.

 

[doncat]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This would be crazy if this was happening in winter.  Basically a narrow area of heavy precip and almost nothing on either side.

 

Yeah it's more the placement with some guidance keeping it almost all south of nyc, li , with others further north, but yeah if it were winter lol.

[qg_omega]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wasn’t criticizing the placement of the JFK ASOS. It's got a great sitting in accordance with all the ASOS guidelines. It’s located near the NE portion of the airport not far from SW Nassau.

 

Jfk is good picture of all of Long Island south of sunrise

[jets]

I will say radar looks very impressive 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Oh this is awesome placement!  But it still seems to underperform on snowfall measurements lol.  Unless the snowfall is measured at a different part of the airport?

 

I notice that my temps don't stabilize as quickly as JFK's do on seabreeze days, we usually hold onto hotter temps for about an hour or two longer.  I guess living in an urban part of SW Nassau with lots of buildings close together could hold off the seabreeze longer than the open area surrounding JFK?

 

The South Shore barrier islands get the cooling sea breeze influence first. Then it makes it to sunrise followed  by the Southern State snd Hempstead turnpike. The big 90 day leader on Long Island in near and north of the LIE. 

[doncat]

89/67 temp split today.