NorthHillsWx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 The 10 mb drop between passes of the last recon mission is insane. Nuclear grade red meat in the EPAC this year. Sadly, this one’s aimed for a population center 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Impressive wish we had radar in this area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 That escalated quickly. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 A sensational and horrifying microwave pass on Otis 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 WooooofSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Absolutely unreal—to be taking place and to have everything miss it 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Absolutely vicious cyclone! Small and compact too. Wonder when the next recon is scheduled (if there will be any before landfall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2023 Author Share Posted October 25, 2023 Wow... There's not really much to add here other than Otis has a very small core. The worst wind damage should be confined to a small area, but it may be pretty bad. The flooding is going to be widespread with the slow motion. I'm still hoping for the eyewall to begin breaking down and weakening some prior to landfall since it is moving slow versus faster motion and carrying momentum. Perhaps some terrain influences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Forecast has it going west of Acapulco, but way too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2023 Author Share Posted October 25, 2023 Forecast has it going west of Acapulco, but way too close for comfort.I think we're about to get some bad news. Trichoidal wobbles aside, it looks like Otis is going to turn too late to miss Acapulco proper. Even still, urban coastal communities extend east and west along the coastline. The core of Otis may move right over some densely populated areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 It's a Cat 5 per NHC... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 The track of these small small storms is kind of tough also cause they wobble a lot more as they approach the terrain. Looks like it's moving almost due north now, but maybe it takes a quick east wobble later. Landfall showing between 6z and 9z so it only has a few more hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 18 minutes ago, Amped said: Forecast has it going west of Acapulco, but way too close for comfort. Yes, I don’t know how far west it’s going to be from there, but regardless, it should be on a dirty side of the storm storm surge should be pretty intense with definitely some heavy rains and very strong winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening with rapidly intensifying Otis approaching the coastline. Satellite images show that Otis has continued to intensify, with Dvorak Data-T estimates between 130-145 kt during the past few hours. The initial wind speed is set to 140 kt as a blend of these values, making Otis a Category 5 hurricane. Otis has explosively intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in modern times by Patricia in 2015. Otis should maintain category 5 status before the hurricane makes landfall near the Acapulco area overnight or early on Wednesday. The only significant change to mention to the track forecast is that it has been shifted to the right due to a recent wobble to the east and the latest model trends, and a general north-northwest motion at about 8 kt is anticipated through landfall. Rapid weakening is anticipated after landfall, and Otis should dissipate tomorrow night over the higher terrain of Mexico. This is an extremely serious situation for the Acapulco metropolitan area with the core of the destructive hurricane likely to come near or over that large city early on Wednesday. There are no hurricanes on record even close to this intensity for this part of Mexico. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 That is one of the all time NHC discussions. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, andyhb said: That is one of the all time NHC discussions. They are trying to stay calm, but you could imagine they must have deleted the phrase "Oh Shit" from that discussion in like 20 places during editing. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 It did finally take a westward jog in the last 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 22 minutes ago, Amped said: It did finally take a westward jog in the last 15 minutes. Needs to plow due N to spare the worst damage at this point. Last second left turn (aka NHC track) would actually be a huge negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Needs to plow due N to spare the worst damage at this point. Last second left turn (aka NHC track) would actually be a huge negative. Looks like the turn has started. Going right into the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Yeah I don’t see how it would miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Pretty much Andrew right into a major city...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Is there any radar data to look at? Been searching but having 0 luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Needs to plow due N to spare the worst damage at this point. Last second left turn (aka NHC track) would actually be a huge negative. I'm just hoping for the eyewall to go anywhere but straight up the bay and over downtown. It will be be a slightly milder apocalypse if the eye avoids the most densely populated area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Just checked and Acapulco has an estimated population of over 1 million people in 2023. For reference, there's only 9 cities in the US with a higher population. This is bad. Just incredible RI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Is there any radar data to look at? Been searching but having 0 luck I thought Acapulco had a radar site, but I've been searching too and unable to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Otis is just making a v-line for Acapulco. The satellite imagery just gives you a pit in your stomach. Those poor people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Incredible core on IR now. Really cleared out. Image from https://weather.ndc.nasa.gov/GOES/ using IR9 color scale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: I thought Acapulco had a radar site, but I've been searching too and unable to find it. I found a few sites that made it seem like I could view a radar from there but then loaded nothing. They also are really in the thick of it now so may be having issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: I found a few sites that made it seem like I could view a radar from there but then loaded nothing. They also are really in the thick of it now so may be having issues. I just find it hard to believe that a major metropolitan city of one million people wouldn't have a radar site in 2023. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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