June 2021

[Brian5671]

clouds were slow to clear here-but full sun since about 2pm-up to 76

[Rtd208]

Dewpoint and humidity on the rise.

High for the day was 83 here.

Current temp 77/DP 66

[SRRTA22]

Its still a littttle bit chilly here in Jersey City with that wind. Im savoring every moment of it too

[donsutherland1]

A very warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures could approach or reach 90° in parts of the region on Sunday. The warmth will continue through at least mid-week next week.

In the Pacific Northwest, a historic and potentially unprecedented heatwave began to descend on the region. In response, parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia saw temperatures soar into the 90s today. A few locations even exceeded 100° including the following sites:

The Dalles, OR: 102°
Ephrata, WA: 100°
Lytton, BC: 102°/38.7°C (old record: 101°/38.2°C)
Omak, WA: 100°

This weekend into early next week could see the most extreme heat parts of that region have ever experienced. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures could be challenged or broken. That includes the Portland and Seattle areas. After Monday, the core of the heat will shift somewhat to the north and east. Readings will remain much above normal in parts of eastern Washington State, Idaho, and eastern British Columbia.

Records for select cities:

Kamloops, BC:
June 26: 102° (38.4°C), 2006
June 27: 99° (37.1°C), 2006
June 28: 100° (37.7°C), 2008
June 29: 102° (39.1°C), 2008

June record: 102° (39.1°C)
All-time record: 105° (40.8°C)

Portland:
June 26: 102°, 2006
June 27: 98°, 2000
June 28: 100°, 2008
June 29: 97°, 1951

June record: 102°
All-time record: 107°

Seattle:
June 26: 90°, 2006
June 27: 92°, 2015
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008
June 29: 93°, 1987

June record: 96°
All-time record: 103°

Spokane:
June 26: 100°, 1925
June 27: 102°, 2015
June 28: 105°, 2015
June 29: 98°, 1939

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. That's an implied 55% increase tied to climate change. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. That's an implied 40% increase tied to climate change. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 83% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.1°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +10.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.210 today.

On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.532 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.207 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9° (1.9° above normal).

 

[CIK62]

Still ridiculous for Portland.       Next 4 days have not changed much in 5 runs:

Not much help from the EURO ENS.

While we play catch-up:

[LibertyBell]

On 6/24/2021 at 5:07 PM, forkyfork said:

it's one op run at day 10. i think the west atlantic ridge keeps the trough far enough west for a humid pattern with storms

the news this summer is going to be the extreme heat in the west.  Whats about to happen in Seattle has NEVER happened in NYC....they could hit 110 degrees?!  Could you ever imagine, Seattle being hotter than NYC, EWR or Philly has EVER been?
  Wow!  I heard that people there are worried that it'll be so hot that birds will start falling out of the sky en masse.  And only one third of the people there have A/C!

Seattle has only hit 100 twice before (2006, 2009) and the highest ever was 103 in 2009.  Neither summer was very hot here, but that's besides the point, beating their former all time record by nearly 10 degrees is going to be amazing!  I heard even areas right at the ocean are going to hit 100!

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Still ridiculous for Portland.       Next 4 days have not changed much in 5 runs:

Not much help from the EURO ENS.

While we play catch-up:

Seattle could hit 110 and Portland could hit 120!  Thats crazy!

 

as for NYC you need to subtract 10 degrees from those temps lol

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A very warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures could approach or reach 90° in parts of the region on Sunday. The warmth will continue through at least mid-week next week.

In the Pacific Northwest, a historic and potentially unprecedented heatwave began to descend on the region. In response, parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia saw temperatures soar into the 90s today. A few locations even exceeded 100° including the following sites:

The Dalles, OR: 102°
Ephrata, WA: 100°
Lytton, BC: 102°/38.7°C (old record: 101°/38.2°C)
Omak, WA: 100°

This weekend into early next week could see the most extreme heat parts of that region have ever experienced. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures could be challenged or broken. That includes the Portland and Seattle areas. After Monday, the core of the heat will shift somewhat to the north and east. Readings will remain much above normal in parts of eastern Washington State, Idaho, and eastern British Columbia.

Records for select cities:

Kamloops, BC:
June 26: 102° (38.4°C), 2006
June 27: 99° (37.1°C), 2006
June 28: 100° (37.7°C), 2008
June 29: 102° (39.1°C), 2008

June record: 102° (39.1°C)
All-time record: 105° (40.8°C)

Portland:
June 26: 102°, 2006
June 27: 98°, 2000
June 28: 100°, 2008
June 29: 97°, 1951

June record: 102°
All-time record: 107°

Seattle:
June 26: 90°, 2006
June 27: 92°, 2015
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008
June 29: 93°, 1987

June record: 96°
All-time record: 103°

Spokane:
June 26: 100°, 1925
June 27: 102°, 2015
June 28: 105°, 2015
June 29: 98°, 1939

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. That's an implied 55% increase tied to climate change. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. That's an implied 40% increase tied to climate change. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 83% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.1°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +10.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.210 today.

On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.532 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.207 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9° (1.9° above normal).

 

Don, with Seattle breaking its all time record by almost 10 degrees, I think we have to temper our hot summer hopes because the only two times it ever hit 100 there weren't so hot here (2006, 2009).  If Seattle hits 110 I think it would be the greatest heat record the US has ever seen.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Morning clouds will yield to a partly sunny day. It will become somewhat warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 80°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 81°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 84.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.2°

A much warmer weekend lies ahead.

An extreme to perhaps historic heatwave will likely begin to descend on the Pacific Northwest today. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s in Seattle and lower to middle 90s in Portland. It will become much warmer tomorrow throughout the Pacific Northwest. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle.

The kind of summer I dream of, unfortunately we dont get these type of all time extreme temp records in our part of the country anymore.  NYC's record is from 1936.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is continuing with a recent summer theme. 96-99 for the usual wam spots around our area. But the 100s go north into New England. It will be interesting to see if our area can sneak in a 100° when the WAR begins to flatten and flow becomes more SW to W.

I dont know Chris.....if EWR or LGA hit 100 but no one else does, it's not really that impressive, because they hit 100 in more years than they dont.  I'll be impressed when we get the kind of heat Seattle is about to get.  But we dont see those kinds of all time heat records in our part of the country anymore.

 

[SRRTA22]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

The kind of summer I dream of, unfortunately we dont get these type of all time extreme temp records in our part of the country anymore.  NYC's record is from 1936.

 

I will call that bluff every single time. Theres no way anyone actually enjoys that type of heat besides Forky

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SRRTA22 said:

I will call that bluff every single time. Theres no way anyone actually enjoys that type of heat besides Forky

I enjoy seeing records lol.  There's no reason to be outside in that kind of weather though unless you're in a pool or in the ocean lol.

[SRRTA22]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I enjoy seeing records lol.  There's no reason to be outside in that kind of weather though unless you're in a pool or in the ocean lol.

Id rather break dewpoint records at this point, even though I absolutely hate it..but I love convection...ying/yang

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Id rather break dewpoint records at this point, even though I absolutely hate it..but I love convection...ying/yang

omg I suffocate in high humidity....I think it's the mold spores that get to me.  The only kind of heat I like is very dry heat because I dont get sick in it, plus the number of bugs seem to be a lot less?  I guess they dont like it when the air isn't moist.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Id rather break dewpoint records at this point, even though I absolutely hate it..but I love convection...ying/yang

My favorite kinds of summers are one that are very hot and dry but end with a big bang (like a big severe weather outbreak or a big tropical system that comes up the coast.)  There have been a few of those (1999, 2010, 2011, 2012).  I would've loved 1944 had I been around to experience that summer.

 

[Snowlover11]

ugh its already disgusting outside feels like i got slapped with a wet towel

[wdrag]

Drizzling in Wantage at 615A Saturday and driveway getting the damp look.  

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of June are averaging 84degs.(74/95), or +9.0.

Month to date is  72.6[+1.3].       June should end at 74.5[+2.5].

70*(98%RH) here at 6am, overcast.

 

[doncat]

Fog and drizzle currently at 70/68.

[LoboLeader1]

Light mist here, current temp 68*

[winterwarlock]

5 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

I will call that bluff every single time. Theres no way anyone actually enjoys that type of heat besides Forky

I do

[rclab]

5 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

I will call that bluff every single time. Theres no way anyone actually enjoys that type of heat besides Forky

Good morning S. Forky enjoys using his namesake to test how “done” we all are. As always ……

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

It will be variably cloudy and warmer. Some drizzle or light rain is possible in places this morning. There could be an afternoon shower or thundershower. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 85°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.7°; 15-Year: 82.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.2°; 15-Year: 86.5°

Tomorrow will be even warmer.

Yesterday, Victoria, BC set a June record high temperature of 93° and Lytton, BC set a daily record high temperature of 103°. This marked the beginning of a monster heatwave that will engulf the Pacific Northwest over the next few days. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle. 

Today, Seattle will very likely set a new daily record high temperature. Portland will likely break its monthly record high temperature (102°) and could challenge its all-time record high temperature (107°). There is an implied 40% probability that Portland will reach or exceed its all-time high today. Tomorrow will be even hotter.

Daily Records for June 26:

Portland: 102°, 2006 (Forecast: 102° to 110°)

Seattle: 90°, 2006 (Forecast: 95° to 101°) 

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, with Seattle breaking its all time record by almost 10 degrees, I think we have to temper our hot summer hopes because the only two times it ever hit 100 there weren't so hot here (2006, 2009).  If Seattle hits 110 I think it would be the greatest heat record the US has ever seen.

 

There are some differences between then and now. We’ve already seen more heat dome ridges pop up particularly over drought-stricken areas. The climate is also warmer than it was then. While the kind of extreme heat we’ve seen out West is probably not very likely, but cannot be ruled out, a sustained above-to-much above normal temperature regime remains likely. 

[Rtd208]

Starting off the day warm and humid.

Current temp 75/DP 70

[SACRUS]

Florida style pattern has arrived.  Dewpoints into or near 70s.  Clouds probably in the way of many 90s today but more sun starting Sunday will get most there. Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge.  Ridge backs west over the area through early July with high heights and 850 temps >18c,  plenty of mid 90s and some upper 90s on the sunnier days, but expect (much like Florida) storms to fire each day Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1).  

Beyond there, a split and a reverse ECM now maintains ridging stronger and front and any closed off low well west into the Ohio valley, while the GFS has the ULL come through between 7/2 - 7/4.  Id say take the compromise, thie W Atlantics ridge means business and beyond the July 4th weekend it looks to remain warm to hot overall.

[SnoSki14]

Gfs was correct with the Memorial weekend misery, will it be correct this time?

[SACRUS]

Some showers now south to north

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There are some differences between then and now. We’ve already seen more heat dome ridges pop up particularly over drought-stricken areas. The climate is also warmer than it was then. While the kind of extreme heat we’ve seen out West is probably not very likely, but cannot be ruled out, a sustained above-to-much above normal temperature regime remains likely. 

the prediction for 111 at Seattle on Monday is astonishing.  Do you think NYC/Long Island could ever see that kind of heat?  Seattle has never even gotten higher than 103 before, while JFK has reached 104 so I think with the right set up it's possible.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Our most recent all-time heat records have occurred during the cold season. The February 2018 monthly and winter all-time heat record of 80° surpassed the previous record by 4° degrees. October 2019 featured the 96° max which was 3° warmer than the standing record. Our last all-time heat record for the year was 108° in July 2011. That record at Newark originated over the record drought in the Southern Plains. So like the all-time records in the West, you need an extreme drought to occur in the source region for warm season all-time records. If we see a drought as severe in the Plains or East in the future, then 110°+ will be in reach for our area. 

I cant wait until we have another 1966......