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May 2021 Discussion


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

What I would really like to see is data going back say over the last 50 years showing the number of like 60+, 70+, 80+ days during the months of March, April, and May and see if there has been an increase in the number of days for these occurrences over the years (I think we know the answer to this but would be nice to see). 

it seems no matter hat transpires over the course of the month...at the end of it we end up above-average in terms of temperatures. We probably could have gotten a 2' blizzard April 17 and below-average temperatures for 4-days centered around that date...and the month would still finish AN. 

The thing is our warm days...seem to overperform and by several-pus degrees and of course we have nights where temperatures remain above-average (which this is what seems to be driving the AN times...warmer overnight lows as opposed to daytime highs). The only way we really hit climo is getting these below-average airmasses and we somehow still manage to spike to climo values. 

Well the new normals are in effect so it’ll be more difficult to run AN going forward…at least for the first few years assuming the warming continues to increase. If this new decade somehow ends up cool compared to the last few decades it’ll look like an impending ice age in the monthly departures.

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I think we're talking about those extreme outlier events tho - ...those don't settle back and disappear so readily into the longer term mean smear, either way, and will still shine rather brightly above others in columnar of data.

I mean sloppy example,  +1, -1, +2, -3, -1, +4, +2, -1, +38, 0, +1, -7, -8, -2, +1, +27,.... etc....  The frequency of ostentatious giddy outliers is up.  I think he wants to see those Matterhorn events in supposition to whether they are skewing due to frequencies.

Single can be single day or maybe a week... That 80+ Feb day back in 2017?  ...was embedded in a week of 60s to near 70 - don't quote.  So that would be a standout series, true.  

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Well the new normals are in effect so it’ll be more difficult to run AN going forward…at least for the first few years assuming the warming continues to increase. If this new decade somehow ends up cool compared to the last few decades it’ll look like an impending ice age in the monthly departures.

Really great point 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Well the new normals are in effect so it’ll be more difficult to run AN going forward…at least for the first few years assuming the warming continues to increase. If this new decade somehow ends up cool compared to the last few decades it’ll look like an impending ice age in the monthly departures.

Especially for snowfall.  Trading 1981-90 for 2011-20 made a huge difference.

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Day 6 thru 10 of this 12z Euro please ...

subtle fly in the ointment mid way through  ...some cloud debris in the M/A to CT perhaps... but otherwise, 68 Thursday to 76 the following Sunday with weak gradient vectored off-shore, and low RH deep layer from the Lakes to the Maritimes ...   

Haven't seen a polish on that range of any guidance really since the phantom heat wave runs of early April.. heh.  anyway, ...even tho the tele's are lowering in correlation, the PNA is falling and the NAO is neutralized in that area in the GEFs, and seeing this operational Euro fit with that spread is like ding dong the witch is dead appeal -

Hopefully it really is...   Oh, and the MJO is finally completely collapsed(ing)

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter , Seminole and Kooky The Kenny all seem to be wishing it to rain here so just needed to let them know won’t be here . Brewery day 

Okay, I hope it rains at the brewery.

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Anyone have any thoughts on the next big severe weather system that could move in this May? We had a good one on Monday (May 3rd) and Tuesday (May 4th) that went through the south but we could be seeing a lull for a bit it seems. Also anyone who is interested in brushing up on tornadoes here's a great place to do that!

https://www.weathercentertx.com/weather-101-different-types-of-weather/tornado-safety/

 

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Nice afternoon overall to duck out of work early and go wander around with the dog.

Definitely a chill but I love hiking in these temps. Can feel the chill when you get near the glaciers too.  This time of year we use work roads as the state doesn’t like the hiking trails used until they dry out later in the month.  Wandering up the Spruce Road ran into like 15 feet of snow going across the road :lol:.

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3D218F4C-4C53-4597-8F19-0FDD12FBDED0.thumb.jpeg.8e938c26c95ed68738179b9481a1d3a5.jpeg

 

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4 hours ago, jbenedet said:

^Beautiful pics but eff snow on May 7, unless it’s at the tops of the whites...

Yeah it’s just the manmade stuff for the most part.  Still patchy natural cover above 3,000ft and some depth in the evergreens above 3500-4000ft... but you can go to the tops and really only encounter man-made snow in most areas.  As you can see in that first photo, it’s all bare ground except like 10-15 feet under the snow guns, ha.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it’s just the manmade stuff for the most part.  Still patchy natural cover above 3,000ft and some depth in the evergreens above 3500-4000ft... but you can go to the tops and really only encounter man-made snow in most areas.  As you can see in that first photo, it’s all bare ground except like 10-15 feet under the snow guns, ha.

You think they'll look at a 15' pile of snow 3 weeks after a firm closing date, in a low snowfall winter with a near record melt off,  and maybe go a little easier next year?  

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it’s just the manmade stuff for the most part.  Still patchy natural cover above 3,000ft and some depth in the evergreens above 3500-4000ft... but you can go to the tops and really only encounter man-made snow in most areas.  As you can see in that first photo, it’s all bare ground except like 10-15 feet under the snow guns, ha.

 

 

Freak..how long will that man made 10-15ft last before it’s gone completely??  Another 3-4 wks? 

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6 minutes ago, radarman said:

You think they'll look at a 15' pile of snow 3 weeks after a firm closing date, in a low snowfall winter with a near record melt off,  and maybe go a little easier next year?  

I guess one never knows...?  If it wasn’t such a mild late winter-early spring, and we got a couple big late winter storms(especially in ski country), then that big 15ft pile might have paid off big time?  But this year it was all for not.  Next year it could be just the opposite?  It’s always a gamble I guess. 

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

About as cool as you can get May 7 with full sun. Thermo read 60 but persistent light wind and very low dews made it feel like mid 50’s at best, even in the sun.

Except last May 9 when it was still in the 30s in the late afternoon with sun and wind. ;)

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25 minutes ago, radarman said:

You think they'll look at a 15' pile of snow 3 weeks after a firm closing date, in a low snowfall winter with a near record melt off,  and maybe go a little easier next year?  

No because we limped along in other areas.  And it’s not like it was a whole trail, it’s a stretch on Main Street near the pumphouse.  Basically could’ve allocated those resources a bit better but what it tells me is that there was a great favorable window of snowmaking when that area was hit, and it might have been left on for a day too long, or more likely it’s an overflow gun pile.

Last winter was a poor snowmaking season with high minimum temperatures and lengthy stretches “around freezing”... like 25-32F is fairly useless for snowmaking and it seemed like we had a lot of that.  It’s pretty easy to see right now what trails had snow made on them during one of the few arctic snaps we had.

Though to be honest, in this case it’s the section of trail near the Spruster (Spruce Booster).... and when that pumphouse is moving water, there’s always a few guns going right outside as overflow guns.  Often times the rogue deep spots can be found near valve houses or pump houses... Stowe has a classic one at the top of the Haychute on Upper Lord, where the snow is often to the roof of the building there.  That’s because if snow is being made on Mansfield, those couple hydrants need to run.  We often call them “lone soldiers”... just like randomly there will be a gun or two running to control water overflow. 

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24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Except last May 9 when it was still in the 30s in the late afternoon with sun and wind. ;)

That’s a good one.

Light Rain in the morning at the coast, storm grazes us. Strong surface cold front through in the afternoon. Temp peaks in low 40’s at PSM. Completely different than today with HP overhead. But anyway yea taking what I said verbatim above—you’re right. Touché.

To put it differently: shift this coastal low headed for NS 200 miles west and May 8 2021 would be putting May 9th 2020 firmly into the past.
 

 

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34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess one never knows...?  If it wasn’t such a mild late winter-early spring, and we got a couple big late winter storms(especially in ski country), then that big 15ft pile might have paid off big time?  But this year it was all for not.  Next year it could be just the opposite?  It’s always a gamble I guess. 

Snowmaking is always a gamble but the gallons of water pumped are very consistent year over year.  They just end up in different areas. Sometimes different trails are fatter than other years, or different spots are deeper on different years.  It all has to do with the weather conditions when snow’s being made in a given area.  One trail catches an arctic outbreak, another trail gets the short end of the stick because it was 24F when it’s guns were on instead of 4F when it’s neighbor got snow.  Which runs got a second or third coat... some only get one because of time or weather, etc.

I bet that spot lasts another 3 weeks, might make June.

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2 hours ago, Texas Weather Center said:

Anyone have any thoughts on the next big severe weather system that could move in this May? We had a good one on Monday (May 3rd) and Tuesday (May 4th) that went through the south but we could be seeing a lull for a bit it seems. Also anyone who is interested in brushing up on tornadoes here's a great place to do that!

https://www.weathercentertx.com/weather-101-different-types-of-weather/tornado-safety/

 

I mean Sunday doesn't look too terrible. 

GFS advertises some sort of potential around the 18th with that strong s/w ejection across the West. But as long as the pattern remains dominated by a West Ridge/East trough...going to be tough to get big events but given the time of year we are in all it takes is one weakness in the pattern or one good s/w to dice through the west and boom potential on the table

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