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Bob's Burgers

Severe Event March 25th 2021

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Deepening surface lows do amazing things WRT LLJ response/backing low level winds. This trough has the perfect amount of negative tilt to allow classic, uninterrupted veering of the winds from the surface on up to the tropopause. It's debatable how much of a negating factor certain degrees of veer-backing really are, but it's not even an issue today.

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Just now, olafminesaw said:

Are the cells training over the northern portion of Alabama going to create a boundary that will enhance tornado risk to it's south?

Probably

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Yes

Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

Deepening surface lows do amazing things WRT LLJ response/backing low level winds. This trough has the perfect amount of negative tilt to allow perfect, uninterrupted veering of the winds from the surface on up to the tropopause. It's debatable how much of a negating factor certain degrees of veer-backing really are, but it's not even an issue today.

Yes, I am always more concerned with a deepening low rather than an occluding one.  The parameters today are just amazing.

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50 knot low level jet core advecting across southeastern Louisiana. Low level instability increasing across Mississippi/western Alabama. 7-8 C/km mid level lapse rates in place. Very little convective inhibition left across Mississippi. Things are about to get real. 

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2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Sorry, I should have specified what I meant by “a tornado.” I’m not talking about garden variety EF-1’s, I mean something like an EF-4. I’m happy for you that the severity and paths of the tornadoes you get every year haven’t been catastrophic, and I hope we’ll still be able to say the same tomorrow.

We have had several of those as well, both through town and the suburbs.  We're not new to strong tornados around this area.  I'm just hoping that we don't have any today... Or ever really..  but it's just part of living in this area... 

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Just now, Quincy said:

50 knot low level jet core advecting across southeastern Louisiana. Low level instability increasing across Mississippi/western Alabama. 7-8 C/km mid level lapse rates in place. Very little convective inhibition left across Mississippi. Things are about to get real. 

Would not be surprised to see a 45% TOR area come out on the 1630 SPC OTLK

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1 minute ago, Bob's Burgers said:

Not that anyone is keeping score anymore, but the latest HRRR run is unreal

Yeah the last 2 runs were a downtrend then 15z said nvm a downtrend.

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Just now, yoda said:

PDS TOR Watch issued til 9pm EDT for AL/MS/TN/GA

Maxed out TOR probabilities.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 50
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western and Northern Alabama
     Northwest Georgia
     Central and Eastern Mississippi
     Southern Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1125 AM until
     800 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
     Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter likely

   SUMMARY...A dangerous environment is developing across the watch
   area.  Multiple rounds of intense supercell thunderstorms are
   expected this afternoon and early evening, with the potential for
   long-track strong to violent tornadoes.  A few of the storms may
   also produce very large hail and widespread damaging wind gusts.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Huntsville AL to
   45 miles west southwest of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.
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Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Not seeing all that much convection over the area and its clearing out. So is that one failure mode gone?

Things are certainly taking a more serious turn.  This day looks like a go.

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1 minute ago, yoda said:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 50
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western and Northern Alabama
     Northwest Georgia
     Central and Eastern Mississippi
     Southern Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1125 AM until
     800 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
     Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter likely

   SUMMARY...A dangerous environment is developing across the watch
   area.  Multiple rounds of intense supercell thunderstorms are
   expected this afternoon and early evening, with the potential for
   long-track strong to violent tornadoes.  A few of the storms may
   also produce very large hail and widespread damaging wind gusts.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Huntsville AL to
   45 miles west southwest of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

Last week’s was “a few intense tornadoes likely”...”several intense tornadoes expected” seems a bit more ominous.

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24 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Gensini is just going ALL in, and I mean ALL in... I don't really know but he's definitely respected so I think it's pretty noteworthy. Though I don't seriously think SPC issues a 60% sig unless we're in the midst of Super Outbreak v3 in about 3 hours (which again, is unlikely *to be clear*).

I would probably just shift the high risk a little S/SE honestly and keep the TOR risk at 30%... but I'm an amateur at best, so again, I really don't know. Anyone else can chime in on their thoughts on it (some have already).

okay welp I imagine we're going 45% in a couple minutes

EDIT: or not

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HIGH risk expanded more eastward and SEward in 1630z update... HIGH now includes BMX metro

ETA: TOR probs remain 30%, but were increased in size with respect to HIGH risk being increased in size

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I'd be surprised to see a 45% tor at 1630Z, mainly because the high risk is a relatively confined area. Trying to squeeze another contour in there would be tough, unless the High risk is expanded quite a bit. 

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13 minutes ago, bamabonners said:

We have had several of those as well, both through town and the suburbs.  We're not new to strong tornados around this area.  I'm just hoping that we don't have any today... Or ever really..  but it's just part of living in this area... 

I wouldn’t downplay this as “just part of living in [that] area.” I don’t live in Alabama, but has Huntsville ever been under a watch of this magnitude outside of *that* day?

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

HIGH risk expanded more eastward and SEward in 1630z update... HIGH now includes BMX metro

ETA: TOR probs remain 30%, but were increased in size with respect to HIGH risk being increased in size

Where are you getting that? and here I was happy to simply not be in the HIGH Risk this go around...

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And we begin

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1136 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Greene County in west central Alabama...
  Northern Hale County in west central Alabama...

* Until 1230 PM CDT.

* At 1135 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located over Boligee, or 10 miles southwest of Eutaw,
  moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Eutaw, Moundville, Akron, Boligee, Allison, Walden Quarters,
  Wedgeworth, Evansville, Selden Lock And Dam, Moundville Airport,
  Phipps, Eutaw Municipal Airport, Mound State Park, Five Points
  Intersection, Elliots Creek, I 20 Rest Area Near Eutaw, Harper Hill
  and Havana.

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