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March 17-18 Severe Weather Event


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7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Real quick update -- New DAY 2 continues with large MOD risk from GA into NC

45% hatched wind introduced in E GA/SC into S NC

Tomorrow looks very interesting, especially if these storms today put a nice boundary down in the morning. Wedge has lifted in Charleston, sunny and 70 now. Looks like a solid two day outbreak here folks

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Tornado confirmed with CC drop intensifying, best viewed from MXX radar versus BMX at this time.

Also, that polygon, in my opinion, for Autauga County is angled too far south versus north given current storm motion.

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Absolutely classic look to this storm. Hopefully it avoids major population centers 

Thankfully most of Autauga & Chilton Counties are quite rural with most of these towns listed are not even incorporated, more like crossroads communities. That said, not diminishing the threat because it'll eventually cross I-65 south of Clanton near Verbena. 

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SPC's discussion for tomorrow is scary, too.

 

...North Carolina/South Carolina/Georgia/Virginia/Florida...
   A positively-tilted upper-level low will move into the Tennessee
   Valley on Thursday as a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet moves across the
   Southeast and Carolinas. At the surface, a low will move eastward
   into the central Appalachians. At 12Z, a warm front will be located
   from northern Georgia eastward across northern South Carolina. This
   boundary will move northward across central and eastern North
   Carolina during the morning. To the south of this front, surface
   dewpoints across the warm sector will be in the mid to upper 60s F.
   As surface temperatures warm, a pocket of moderate instability is
   expected to develop to the south of the warm front across eastern
   North Carolina by late morning. Convective development will be aided
   by the low-level jet. Severe thunderstorms associated with large
   hail, wind damage and a tornado threat, is expected during the mid
   morning hours.

   Further to the west, a band of large-scale ascent associated with
   the approaching upper-level system will overspread the central
   Appalachians around midday. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate
   just ahead of this band of ascent around midday and move eastward
   into the Appalachian foothills during the early afternoon. Ahead of
   the storms, the environment will consist of MLCAPE in the 2000 to
   2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 kt and storm relative
   helicities of 300 to 350 m2/s2. This will support intense supercell
   development. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be likely
   with the stronger storms. A long-track tornado will be possible
   along or in the vicinity of the warm front. The time of maximum
   threat is forecast to be in the 18Z to 22Z time window. A regional
   outbreak of severe storms, along with several significant tornadoes
   are expected from discrete cells that develop across the warm sector
   from central North Carolina southward across much of South Carolina.

   Further to the southwest into Georgia, a line of strong to severe
   thunderstorms is expected to move into the area form the west during
   the morning. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast to
   develop just ahead of this line by late morning with instability
   continuing to increase through the afternoon. This line of storms
   will have access to a strong low-level jet, extending northeastward
   across south-central and eastern Georgia. the environment should
   have MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg along with 0-6 Km shear of 60 to 70
   kt. This will be favorable for supercell and severe bowing line
   segments. Supercells that form in the line may produce tornadoes,
   wind damage and large hail. A potential for significant tornadoes
   will exist with cells that form at the north end of gaps in the
   line. This band of storms is expected to be accompanied by
   widespread wind damage, moving across eastern Georgia and South
   Carolina during the mid to late afternoon. Wind gusts of greater
   than 65 kt will be possible with the more intense bowing line
   segments. The southern part of the band may extend as far south as
   the Florida Panhandle, where a severe threat will exist in the
   morning and early afternoon.
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5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

SPC's discussion for tomorrow is scary, too.

 

...North Carolina/South Carolina/Georgia/Virginia/Florida...
   A positively-tilted upper-level low will move into the Tennessee
   Valley on Thursday as a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet moves across the
   Southeast and Carolinas. At the surface, a low will move eastward
   into the central Appalachians. At 12Z, a warm front will be located
   from northern Georgia eastward across northern South Carolina. This
   boundary will move northward across central and eastern North
   Carolina during the morning. To the south of this front, surface
   dewpoints across the warm sector will be in the mid to upper 60s F.
   As surface temperatures warm, a pocket of moderate instability is
   expected to develop to the south of the warm front across eastern
   North Carolina by late morning. Convective development will be aided
   by the low-level jet. Severe thunderstorms associated with large
   hail, wind damage and a tornado threat, is expected during the mid
   morning hours.

   Further to the west, a band of large-scale ascent associated with
   the approaching upper-level system will overspread the central
   Appalachians around midday. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate
   just ahead of this band of ascent around midday and move eastward
   into the Appalachian foothills during the early afternoon. Ahead of
   the storms, the environment will consist of MLCAPE in the 2000 to
   2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 kt and storm relative
   helicities of 300 to 350 m2/s2. This will support intense supercell
   development. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be likely
   with the stronger storms. A long-track tornado will be possible
   along or in the vicinity of the warm front. The time of maximum
   threat is forecast to be in the 18Z to 22Z time window. A regional
   outbreak of severe storms, along with several significant tornadoes
   are expected from discrete cells that develop across the warm sector
   from central North Carolina southward across much of South Carolina.

   Further to the southwest into Georgia, a line of strong to severe
   thunderstorms is expected to move into the area form the west during
   the morning. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast to
   develop just ahead of this line by late morning with instability
   continuing to increase through the afternoon. This line of storms
   will have access to a strong low-level jet, extending northeastward
   across south-central and eastern Georgia. the environment should
   have MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg along with 0-6 Km shear of 60 to 70
   kt. This will be favorable for supercell and severe bowing line
   segments. Supercells that form in the line may produce tornadoes,
   wind damage and large hail. A potential for significant tornadoes
   will exist with cells that form at the north end of gaps in the
   line. This band of storms is expected to be accompanied by
   widespread wind damage, moving across eastern Georgia and South
   Carolina during the mid to late afternoon. Wind gusts of greater
   than 65 kt will be possible with the more intense bowing line
   segments. The southern part of the band may extend as far south as
   the Florida Panhandle, where a severe threat will exist in the
   morning and early afternoon.

Yeah I've already warned my parents near Myrtle Beach that it could get rough tomorrow

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6 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

So far is this busting above, below, or right around what was forecast? I have a great deal of family in GA anxiously watching these developments and any insight would be very helpful

I don't know what would be considered "above" a high risk with 45% tor contours.  It's very close to the highest risk possible that they could issue.  So far that call seems to be dead on accurate, this looks like a major outbreak of tornadoes, possibly the largest in many years.

FYI be careful with the word "bust", that generally means a storm system falls way short of expectations.

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