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Spring/Summer 2021 Banter/Complaint Thread


madwx
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7 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Starting to think it never actually "warms up" in the Midwest. Going to be heading back into fall before we know it.

The past several seasons demonstrate that it will flip, and it will flip hard. From 60s to 90s. 
 

Although I consider this spring to have been better than the past several years 

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6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

The past several seasons demonstrate that it will flip, and it will flip hard. From 60s to 90s. 
 

Although I consider this spring to have been better than the past several years 

Exactly. I’m actually going to go out on a limb and say half of those places I mentioned will probably hit 90 in May. Didn’t MSP hit 100 degrees in May during a “cold” spring a couple years back?

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35 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Starting to think it never actually "warms up" in the Midwest. Going to be heading back into fall before we know it.

This is a serious weather board. You must have stumbled in from Romper room.

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17 minutes ago, madwx said:

its all fun and games until I realize this subforum is just me, Hoosier and Spartman's 89 sock puppet accounts.

^ This line right here is probably the best thing written anywhere on this website since its creation.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

where is NTXyankee with his daily complaint about how the pattern didn’t change?


.

Probably still perusing the data, particularly hour 300 and beyond of the GFS, and pounding his fists.

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4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

where is NTXyankee with his daily complaint about how the pattern didn’t change?


.

It didn’t but your fantasy weather model or whatever you’re using doesn’t know.  Last I checked going from one cutoff low to another isn’t a change in pattern.

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But it’s been 85 and sunny on several days already in a few places in this subforum. In my mind, cutoff low -> 80 and sunny -> cutoff low -> 80 and sunny -> cutoff low is not one but several pattern changes. There’s post after post about how dry it’s been in many locations this spring. That certainly doesn’t indicate a pattern of constant cutoff lows.

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It didn’t but your fantasy weather model or whatever you’re using doesn’t know.  Last I checked going from one cutoff low to another isn’t a change in pattern.

It most definitely did change, just not in a way that changed conditions much overall for some areas.

Since April 1st, CMH has had 17 days above average and 19 days below average. April precip was 3.28”, which was only 0.12” below average.

In the 36 days since April 1st at CMH.....
29 days had a high of 60+, average is 22.2 days. 13 days had a high of 70+, average is 11.6 days. 4 days had a high of 80+, average is 3.3 days.

go sit in your corner.


.
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5 hours ago, TimB84 said:

But it’s been 85 and sunny on several days already in a few places in this subforum. In my mind, cutoff low -> 80 and sunny -> cutoff low -> 80 and sunny -> cutoff low is not one but several pattern changes. There’s post after post about how dry it’s been in many locations this spring. That certainly doesn’t indicate a pattern of constant cutoff lows.

Depends on what side of the cutoff you are on.  Cutoff pattern can definitely be dry if you are in the wrong location.  Cutoff just to the east in spring usually means cool and an occasional shower that doesn't amount to more than a couple hundredths of an inch... if that.  It also delays the return to a zonal pattern, which has much better potential for Gulf moisture overrunning a front and/or convection.  That's the only pattern that brings real moisture this time of year here.

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I was looking at the new normals for ORD, and noticed something interesting I guess. I went to xmACIS and ran the numbers for the 30 year period, and the mean values on there are a bit different than what NOAA is going with the new official normals. Straight mean average temps are 0.9 cooler on xmACXIS versus NOAA. Precipitation is basically the same. Snowfall is an inch difference. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy or anything, and I know they like to "massage" the normals, but the average temps are kinda especially different. Maybe RC has some intel on the process here...

Month: Avg Temp NOAA (xmACIS)...Precip NOAA (xmACIS)...Snowfall NOAA (xmACIS)

January: 25.2 (24.2)...1.99 (1.98)...11.3 (11.7)

February: 28.8 (27.8)...1.97 (1.97)...10.7 (9.8)

March: 39.0 (38.1)...2.45 (2.45)...5.5 (5.1)

April: 49.7 (48.8)...3.75 (3.75)...1.3 (1.3)

May: 60.6 (59.7)...4.49 (4.49)

June: 70.6 (69.7)...4.10 (4.12)

July: 75.4 (74.6)...3.71 (3.71)

August: 73.8 (73.0)...4.25 (4.24)

September: 66.3 (65.5)...3.19 (3.19)

October: 54.0 (53.2)...3.43 (3.43)...0.2 (0.2)

November: 41.3 (40.4)...2.42 (2.42)...1.8 (1.8)

December: 30.5 (29.6)...2.11 (2.10)...7.6 (7.6)

Annual: 51.3 (50.4)...37.86 (37.85)...38.4 (37.4)

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8 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

I was looking at the new normals for ORD, and noticed something interesting I guess. I went to xmACIS and ran the numbers for the 30 year period, and the mean values on there are a bit different than what NOAA is going with the new official normals. Straight mean average temps are 0.9 cooler on xmACXIS versus NOAA. Precipitation is basically the same. Snowfall is an inch difference. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy or anything, and I know they like to "massage" the normals, but the average temps are kinda especially different. Maybe RC has some intel on the process here...

Month: Avg Temp NOAA (xmACIS)...Precip NOAA (xmACIS)...Snowfall NOAA (xmACIS)

January: 25.2 (24.2)...1.99 (1.98)...11.3 (11.7)

February: 28.8 (27.8)...1.97 (1.97)...10.7 (9.8)

March: 39.0 (38.1)...2.45 (2.45)...5.5 (5.1)

April: 49.7 (48.8)...3.75 (3.75)...1.3 (1.3)

May: 60.6 (59.7)...4.49 (4.49)

June: 70.6 (69.7)...4.10 (4.12)

July: 75.4 (74.6)...3.71 (3.71)

August: 73.8 (73.0)...4.25 (4.24)

September: 66.3 (65.5)...3.19 (3.19)

October: 54.0 (53.2)...3.43 (3.43)...0.2 (0.2)

November: 41.3 (40.4)...2.42 (2.42)...1.8 (1.8)

December: 30.5 (29.6)...2.11 (2.10)...7.6 (7.6)

Annual: 51.3 (50.4)...37.86 (37.85)...38.4 (37.4)

I sat in on a webinar a few weeks ago where they discussed that they massaged the numbers, but I don't remember if they mentioned any specifics or at least had any examples. I won't be back into the office until midweek, but I'll look to see if I saved it, and if so, will check to see if there is any helpful dialog. As you said, Ricky may have some answers

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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I sat in on a webinar a few weeks ago where they discussed that they massaged the numbers, but I don't remember if they mentioned any specifics or at least had any examples. I won't be back into the office until midweek, but I'll look to see if I saved it, and if so, will check to see if there is any helpful dialog. As you said, Ricky may have some answers

Cool, thanks. Like I said in the other post, I know they played with the numbers a bit, but going up almost a full degree for every month is quite...um, interesting. Of course, maybe the values on xmACIS aren't the real/official numbers or something. Don't know...

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44 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Thinking this summer will be below to well below average.

Plot twist: below average in number of days that don’t reach 90. Just watch how hard this pattern flips when the heat arrives.

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Thinking this summer will be below to well below average.

It's May 10th, and ORD has been above normal for the month in 3 of the 4 completed months this year. May is not banging out super low temps which will severely skew the average thus far, and I have no reason to believe it wont follow the general above average trend as well. 

I would think a "below average" call for really any portion of the summer months is likely a long shot. 

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On 5/9/2021 at 8:44 AM, Chicago WX said:

I was looking at the new normals for ORD, and noticed something interesting I guess. I went to xmACIS and ran the numbers for the 30 year period, and the mean values on there are a bit different than what NOAA is going with the new official normals. Straight mean average temps are 0.9 cooler on xmACXIS versus NOAA. Precipitation is basically the same. Snowfall is an inch difference. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy or anything, and I know they like to "massage" the normals, but the average temps are kinda especially different. Maybe RC has some intel on the process here...

Month: Avg Temp NOAA (xmACIS)...Precip NOAA (xmACIS)...Snowfall NOAA (xmACIS)

January: 25.2 (24.2)...1.99 (1.98)...11.3 (11.7)

February: 28.8 (27.8)...1.97 (1.97)...10.7 (9.8)

March: 39.0 (38.1)...2.45 (2.45)...5.5 (5.1)

April: 49.7 (48.8)...3.75 (3.75)...1.3 (1.3)

May: 60.6 (59.7)...4.49 (4.49)

June: 70.6 (69.7)...4.10 (4.12)

July: 75.4 (74.6)...3.71 (3.71)

August: 73.8 (73.0)...4.25 (4.24)

September: 66.3 (65.5)...3.19 (3.19)

October: 54.0 (53.2)...3.43 (3.43)...0.2 (0.2)

November: 41.3 (40.4)...2.42 (2.42)...1.8 (1.8)

December: 30.5 (29.6)...2.11 (2.10)...7.6 (7.6)

Annual: 51.3 (50.4)...37.86 (37.85)...38.4 (37.4)

 That is very interesting. I checked for Detroit and there are very minor differences to the tune of 0.1 to 0.2° here and there. But that Chicago discrepancy is mystifying.

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On 5/9/2021 at 10:50 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

New England 30 year average went way up for snowfall. Hartford went up almost a foot.

image.png.ede8b527695dee15eb558e19e2e9aa00.png

182486310_3937058909721784_1698158792026

182543429_3937059149721760_7360421599731

 

Wow thats a hell of an increase. A sample so far... 

Buffalo, NY: +0.7"

Chicago, IL: +2.1"

Detroit, MI: +2.5"

Rochester, NY: +2.5"

Grand Rapids, MI: +2.6"

Pittsburgh, PA: +2.7"

New York City, NY: +4.0"

Syracuse, NY: +4.0"

Flint, MI: +4.7"

Boston, MA: +5.4"

Saginaw, MI: +7.1"

Worcester, MA: +8.8"

Hartford, CT: +11.2"

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5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wow thats a hell of an increase. A sample so far... 

Buffalo, NY: +0.7"

Chicago, IL: +2.1"

Detroit, MI: +2.5"

Grand Rapids, MI: +2.6"

New York City, NY: +4.0"

Flint, MI: +4.7"

Boston, MA: +5.4"

Hartford, CT: +11.2"

Rochester NY +2.5"

Syracuse NY +4.0"

Buffalo saw the lowest increase, definitely a trend though as almost everyone went up. 

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