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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yall remember a time when it was verboten to post or seriously analyze a 384 hour GFS storm or the Euro control at any hour?  Are we that desperate for snow?

Desperate times call for Desperate measures.

:weenie:

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Can you post the 1,250 hour CFSv2 panel.  H5 and H8?  Wanna see the rain snow line.
Thats april 27th randy. I don't think the rain snow line will be much of a factor at that point of the season
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7 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

Do you think its gonna be windy on Tuesday and Wed?  I sure hope not.. or maybe just a light southerly breeze.  A brisk westerly can mess up these March Early Spring days.

Doesn’t seem like very strong winds to me...west to southerly flow but generally under 10knot. 

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28 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

It's going to be historic -PNA March. 

April of 5 matching analogs.

i1.png.079c9ac3e1820d20b4415cb1ce90d37e.png

fwiw the Winter after is -NAO (these are La Nina -PNA March's the year before)

i2.png.0e10b4294b085671c42f162f4537abd2.png

What do you mean by historic -pna

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The storm of all storms here in Philly. From 2-3' forecasts 24 hrs out to 1" total. And people whine about 8" becoming 4" being a bust? 

It is interesting to look back on the large magnitude busts that were possible not that long ago. The modeling wasn't quite good enough back then in setups with subtle/complex interactions and timing of phases. As I recall there was a strong NS vortex rotating down and phasing with a southern stream wave, and the guidance had it occurring earlier- pretty much perfectly timed for the MA. In the end the southern wave wasn't captured until later, so it all came together further NE. We had the surprise big snowstorm in Jan the winter before that where guidance all had it staying south until within 24 hours. Huge forecast busts like those are much less likely to happen today.

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Still looking pretty interesting on the means beginning around the 15th, with ridging in the EPO/WPO domains, displaced TPV lobes, and with a neutral/negative PNA it looks like some southern waves ejecting eastward. Late, but maybe..

Probably the NW crew should be turned on at the thought of padding their already impressive snow totals.

 

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