CoastalWx

March 2021 Weather Discussion

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26 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Even 01-02 threw us a bone or two at the end of March towards the equinox that season IIRC. 

I remember a couple events close together in Mar 2002...around 2-3" on 3/18 or so and then we had 7" on 3/20

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The records for Randolph say I have about 45" of snow left to go. 

Doesn't look very promising to me on the models since we punt half of March at least, but we will see. I could see a sloppy 30" dump at 32 degrees in April after most of my pack has turned to mud that kinda cheats me most of the way there, I guess.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Larry Cosgrove is on board with a return to cold and  potential snow in the 2nd half of March.

Is he on board with :

A   ...  sun being mid September inferno by then ... ?

B   ...  any model run/blend or technique therein deriving pattern expectation, for that range, is historically and will likely be proven again... suspect while the hemisphere is adjusting daily to that forced +d(watt/sq*m) insolation as it increases S-N so quickly to become factor-able perturbation in the guidance.   ...big words for, "the sun f*s up winter-profiled outlooks good and proper nearing the Equinoxes."

I get 'why' he/others/ et al are saying this .. I'm not blind to the models - in a vacuum sure.  Can't do that tho - just bear the above in mind, that's all.

Those models have historically proven susceptible to these factors above.  And, I'm also sensing a present lack in necessary awareness of these above ... People are treating next week's warm up as some ..intermediate thaw and then it's back to the winter hope scheme... 

Nahhh... get real.

These 'para' phrased quotes that get bandied about in here.  He might have said that ..or at least intimated that caution re A and B above - if he's a good Met he is at least thinking about that... 

I have seen countless delicious patterns on March 20th+ when projected from earlier in that month ...  end up tasting sour when they come to pass  because of rather sudden normalization of the gradients by irradiance bathing .. In fact, trying to do risk assessment/determinism in April also suffers this too. It's not every case, either - it's just increasing error tendency.  We've had blizzards in May ... but we also tend to confuse/ .. or remove the sloping probability reality, replacing it with absolute interpretation when reading these skeptical posts.  Don't.. I'm not say it can't ... it's getting harder, fast.

I mean ..duh, 2 week intervals are always 'edubacated'  guess work in the best of times, but spring?   Mm...'spring modulation effect' is on, and is notoriously adding to that uncertainty even more... 

 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is he on board with :

A   ...  sun being mid September inferno by then ... ?

B   ...  any model run/blend or technique therein deriving pattern expectation, for that range, is historically and will likely be proven again... suspect while the hemisphere is adjusting daily to that forced +d(watt/sq*m) insolation as it increases S-N so quickly to become factor-able perturbation in the guidance.   ...big words for, "the sun f*s up winter-profiled outlooks good and proper nearing the Equinoxes."

I get 'why' he/others/ et al are saying this .. I'm not blind to the models - in a vacuum sure.  Can't do that tho - just bear the above in mind, that's all.

Those models have historically proven susceptible to these factors above.  And, I'm also sensing a present lack in necessary awareness of these above ... People are treating next week's warm up is some ..intermediate thaw and then it's back to the winter hope scheme... 

Nahhh... get real.

These 'para' phrased quotes that get bandied about in here.  He might have said that ..or at least intimated that caution re A and B above - if he's a good Met he is at least thinking about that... 

I have seen countless delicious patterns on March 20th+ when projected from earlier in that month ...  end up tasting sour when they come to pass  because of rather sudden normalization of the gradients by irradiance bathing .. In fact, trying to do risk assessment/determinism in April also suffers this too.

I mean ..duh, 2 week intervals are always 'edubacated'  guess work in the best of times, but spring?   Mm...'spring modulation effect' is on, and is notoriously adding to that uncertainty even more... 

 

He his him ?

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is he on board with :

A   ...  sun being mid September inferno by then ... ?

B   ...  any model run/blend or technique therein deriving pattern expectation, for that range, is historically and will likely be proven again... suspect while the hemisphere is adjusting daily to that forced +d(watt/sq*m) insolation as it increases S-N so quickly to become factor-able perturbation in the guidance.   ...big words for, "the sun f*s up winter-profiled outlooks good and proper nearing the Equinoxes."

I get 'why' he/others/ et al are saying this .. I'm not blind to the models - in a vacuum sure.  Can't do that tho - just bear the above in mind, that's all.

Those models have historically proven susceptible to these factors above.  And, I'm also sensing a present lack in necessary awareness of these above ... People are treating next week's warm up as some ..intermediate thaw and then it's back to the winter hope scheme... 

Nahhh... get real.

These 'para' phrased quotes that get bandied about in here.  He might have said that ..or at least intimated that caution re A and B above - if he's a good Met he is at least thinking about that... 

I have seen countless delicious patterns on March 20th+ when projected from earlier in that month ...  end up tasting sour when they come to pass  because of rather sudden normalization of the gradients by irradiance bathing .. In fact, trying to do risk assessment/determinism in April also suffers this too.

I mean ..duh, 2 week intervals are always 'edubacated'  guess work in the best of times, but spring?   Mm...'spring modulation effect' is on, and is notoriously adding to that uncertainty even more... 

 

Mid March is not that averse at this latitude...very doable.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mid March is not that averse at this latitude...very doable.

Yeah the historical snow climo shows this too...there tends to be a pretty sharp dropoff in snow climo though once into the final week of March but that 3/14-3/22 period or so is not too difficult.

Then there is another pretty sharp dropoff in snow climo after about 4/12-4/13 in the historical record.

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41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the historical snow climo shows this too...there tends to be a pretty sharp dropoff in snow climo though once into the final week of March but that 3/14-3/22 period or so is not too difficult.

Then there is another pretty sharp dropoff in snow climo after about 4/12-4/13 in the historical record.

Yea, early April is a different ball game.....final week of March jives with what I would say is the climo cliff.

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I dunno... What I am seeing overnight is the same shit I've seen for a week now.. .

The telecon layout is warmer by numerical approach, than the operational individual and blends have tended to appeal like -

Not sure which will win... I suspect the operational runs ( should anyway...) might have a special insight being the souped up front man for each family ... but that's not always true.  I could see the operational runs suddenly getting more robust with raising heights south of 55 N ...given to that ginormous Swiss Alps rise in the AO curve out there mid month, while the NAO is also bouncing around between neutral to low grade positive - that offers a big gap not being used in the operational runs.

You can actually see that in the SE ridge handling for the warm up next week, too... The models have this "NINO" like River coming into California with a huge planetary flux of subtropical jet mechanics riding over the SW U.S.... and the heights over the TV fan open...They don't really represent a deeper latent heat fluxed height response as much as they could - Not sure where that is going ...but the models are not really building heights that fit that mode down stream very well.

That's the 00z run... the 12z yesterday seemed to fit both the west coast flow, and these polar indices above, better.   So..I'm on the fence...

I also think the GFS in general as a separate concern with that p.o.s. N/stream beady-eyed neurotic physics will keep it winter until the end of time if given least excuse imagined, too

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mid March is not that averse at this latitude...very doable.

True .... but what I am saying is not in the absolute sense, either.

Not saying it can't -

It's a brief op ed against the presumptive attitude, a presumption that is removing the modulation curve in order to get on the far side of next week's warm up as phew, back to our drug LOL...

By then, ...

" 2nd half of March.."   ?  

heh...

Look, if the AO was not soaring to crucifixion heights out there, and the NAO was not in tandem also bouncing around ( albeit shallowly ...) in lower positive range, while the PNA is also tending too flop negative after this vortex interlude we suffer over the next 4 days ...I wouldn't be raising caution flags ... Oh, I might snark that the sun is a cooker.   But these are bona fide clad, institutionalized methods for deterministic assessment - they are not cold and snowy.  So ...yeah, it's a little odd - .. where is Larry seeing that anyway come to think about it -

If I saw that layout of mass field mode/modal indicators at any time of the cold season, I would not be emphatic about any run that looks cold biased relative to that signal. 

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I don't really buy the return to winter after mid-month either. 

Looks seasonal to me to somewhat BN at best, which could be enough for a wintry event...it is still March after all. 

2018 ain't walking through that door though.

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23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, early April is a different ball game.....final week of March jives with what I would say if the climo cliff.

So epic. Man I would pay to see a repeat of this some day 

Screenshot_20210304-102201_Chrome.jpg

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50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

True .... but what I am saying is not in the absolute sense, either.

Not saying it can't -

It's a brief op ed against the presumptive attitude, a presumption that is removing the modulation curve in order to get on the far side of next week's warm up as phew, back to our drug LOL...

By then, ...

" 2nd half of March.."   ?  

heh...

Look, if the AO was not soaring to crucifixion heights out there, and the NAO was not in tandem also bouncing around ( albeit shallowly ...) in lower positive range, while the PNA is also tending too flop negative after this vortex interlude we suffer over the next 4 days ...I wouldn't be raising caution flags ... Oh, I might snark that the sun is a cooker.   But these are bona fide clad, institutionalized methods for deterministic assessment - they are not cold and snowy.  So ...yeah, it's a little odd - .. where is Larry seeing that anyway come to think about it -

If I saw that layout of mass field mode/modal indicators at any time of the cold season, I would not be emphatic about any run that looks cold biased relative to that signal. 

I have no issue with doubting said potential succeeds at converting to a significant snowfall....was just speaking to the climo aspect.

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We have had a 5"+ event 3/15 or later 6 of the last 10 seasons if my memory serves me.  2013, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.  

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57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the historical snow climo shows this too...there tends to be a pretty sharp dropoff in snow climo though once into the final week of March but that 3/14-3/22 period or so is not too difficult.

Then there is another pretty sharp dropoff in snow climo after about 4/12-4/13 in the historical record.

Have had 11 snowfalls of 8-19" after 3/15 in 22 winters here, 4 of them in April with the latest being 11.2" on 4/12-13/07.  Nothing reaching 6" after that, though it was different when we lived in Gardiner, with 6"+ storms after 4/15 in both 87 and 88.  Didn't get the huge ORH dump in 87, however.  (Encountered double-digit snows during visits to NW NJ in both 83 [11" on 4/19] and 86 [13" on 4/23] - we didn't think the state would ever again let us visit in late April.)

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58 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So epic. Man I would pay to see a repeat of this some day 

Screenshot_20210304-102201_Chrome.jpg

Still in my top 5 of snow periods I’ve lived through 

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I remember a beauty of a storm that went from rain to heavy wet snow in late March of ‘83 or ‘84 which started with a tornado outbreak in the southeast. A tree in our yard was taken out and landed on my dads car in the driveway lol 

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Still in my top 5 of snow periods I’ve lived through 

Now THAT is the way to end March.  

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24 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I remember a beauty of a storm that went from rain to heavy wet snow in late March of ‘83 or ‘84 which started with a tornado outbreak in the southeast. A tree in our yard was taken out and landed on my dads car in the driveway lol 

March 1984.

My first weather memory....I watched the distinct transition from sheets of rain to cat paws flash across the neighborhood at a very deliberate pace during the PM, then I awoke the next morning to about a foot of spring concrete.

I was hooked-

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20 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I remember a beauty of a storm that went from rain to heavy wet snow in late March of ‘83 or ‘84 which started with a tornado outbreak in the southeast. A tree in our yard was taken out and landed on my dads car in the driveway lol 

‘84 I believe. Epic tornado outbreak there. Blue hills had a gust around 100mph. Big snows interior and even near the coast got it pretty good near BOS.

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51 minutes ago, DomNH said:

MEX with a 56 and a 58 here next Wednesday/Thursday. Come to daddy. 

Check this ... I'm not sure it is still the case -

but, the distancing MEX days are increasingly weighted to climate?   ...that definitely 'used' to be the case. 

My experience over the years since I became more 'meteorologically sentient' as it were ...is that thicknesses over 546 dm ...particularly over 552 dm, in a deep layer continental conveyor patterns that are well mixed ... tend to make 70 F  ... Obviously, clouds/rain depending ...

If the MEX is still being weighted heavily toward climo, that is most likely pulling those values down?   What is climo next week - 45 ..48... somewhere?  If we are 10 or 13 over(under) climate on MEX for a D6/7/8 outlook, that's also about what typically happens for very warm(cool) anomalous patterns at this range, in that product.

Heh...I'm sure there was a shorter way to have said this - sorry

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The Euro looks like Tuesday napes the hell out of 'em ... Wednesday is (nape + mild)/2 ... but very warm in Kevin's car..   Thursday is a warm day.  ...Friday probably is cloud contaminating/rain... whatever...it's all D 8 by then ...

But this did this again - I'm noticing this sloshing going on between 00z and 12z ..  The 00z's tend to regress back toward a colder complexion... The 12z go back a bit more warm.  

And the posting tenor/frequency goes up and down at a negative correlation coefficients - lol ...

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39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Check this ... I'm not sure it is still the case -

but, the distancing MEX days are increasingly weighted to climate?   ...that definitely 'used' to be the case. 

My experience over the years since I became more 'meteorologically sentient' as it were ...is that thicknesses over 546 dm ...particularly over 552 dm, in a deep layer continental conveyor patterns that are well mixed ... tend to make 70 F  ... Obviously, clouds/rain depending ...

If the MEX is still being weighted heavily toward climo, that is most likely pulling those values down?   What is climo next week - 45 ..48... somewhere?  If we are 10 or 13 over(under) climate on MEX for a D6/7/8 outlook, that's also about what typically happens for very warm(cool) anomalous patterns at this range, in that product.

Heh...I'm sure there was a shorter way to have said this - sorry

You? Nah........

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I will say the EPS has shown steady interest (at least how I see it) in that period after the late week torch next week. I don't see the classic look yet, but you have a little meridional flow out of NW Canada, a little Greenland ridging, a little confluence in SE Canada. You get the idea. 

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