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CoastalWx

March 2021 Weather Discussion

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1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

 

 

Thanks guys.

 

feeling good. Taste and smell has returned about 75%

Curious ... do you know where you most likely were exposed with the fateful dosing ?

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Shoot the V16 to the moon with the Ukie and Canadian. 

I know ... I mean it's not even for loathing winter and wanting spring and all the babble bs... the model will f'ing do this in July if it can - it's like it was engineered by climate deniers trying to hide from global warming by running a version that provides an alternate cold biased world.  haha

Is this really the "organic" physics at work? 

if it is ...those need better peer reviewal...

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Curious ... do you know where you most likely were exposed with the fateful dosing ?

Uhm my wife tested positive Sunday feb 14th... and I tested positive Tuesday Feb 16th... so I’d guess sometime that weekend.

I had total taste and smell loss for about a week 

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It could not be more painfully obvious these GFS models struggle with modulation or awareness ( somehow ...) going from cold --> warm d(seasons) physical forcing ...

It seems to diminish the the seasonal intake that is integral at point of ingest/initializations ... over the course of the runs.  Removing heat/diabatic hemispheric forcing like it assumes it error or something...  By D7 .. 10, it has all been removed .. asymptotically.  By D12 ...forget it -

It's why I wonder if this warm up next week might be bigger when it is at hand ..because it will no longer be processed through the GFS' 'season change vaccine'

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46 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Uhm my wife tested positive Sunday feb 14th... and I tested positive Tuesday Feb 16th... so I’d guess sometime that weekend.

I had total taste and smell loss for about a week 

Sorry to ask just curious what the pathogenicity is really like with this thing and first hand accounts are interesting.

I mean with these masks and shit...  ugh.  This has got to stop - despite illness and losing smell/taste ... fact of the matter is, no part of human evolutionary passed set us up to endure this forever- I think we're seeing soft revolt across society.  Vaccine is coming just in the nick of time.  I mean they were 'alleviating restrictions' at state scales not two or three weeks past the monster winter spike in cases, when contrasting...not two or three weeks after designation of Pandemic by the WHO a year ago Decemeber ...all of civility as we know it shut down tighter than a bull's ass at fly time.  If anything, post said winter spike we should have been seeing tumble weeds in the streets with weeds growing out of parking lot cracks, industry silenced...and the sounds of bird of pray resonating through the skies...  That sort of bending away from commitment to the cause ...that's a way of evolution sort of tapping all this on the shoulder I think - interesting...  Anyway, with the vaccine - especially the single dose rollout ... 150 million Americans should be immune by April 10 ( check that...that might have been revised), and that's half the population ... herd immunity has got to be sooner than we think, and the "emergency" status lifted - there's hope now folks

I have a friend ..close friend that is a father to two adorable 4 and 6 year olds, wife, home...in the thick of early parenthood and very typically cautious.  Masks... hand sanitizing...  limiting public exposure ... distancing.  Darted trips out for sundries and groceries... the whole thing.

COVID-19 strikes...

What he did have was a myopically self-centered boss and owner of small company who is ... in my estimation, a sociopath.  I mean, he kept it from his staff that he had been exposed to his nephew, when he went to some family thing and the nephew got sick with it ... some two days later.  Which means ..everyone that was there at that gathering needed, by behest of common f'ing knowledge ( this all happened just last month) be quarantine and all that ... Didn't do it - kept it to him self.  Boss gets it... dominoes through much of his staff. He put his business interest- welfare and his legacy before the health and safety of his employees... 

At some point ... shouldn't that be like 2nd or 3rd degree criminally liable ?  I mean ... if you walk into a party and poor toxin into the punch bowl ... that's 1st degree premeditated...  Walk into the party and intoxicate the air with your bio-phage ... what's the f'n difference?

Anyway, he wore masks at work... and they did social distancing ... still wasn't enough to stop him and few of his colleagues from suffering their boss' self-centered 'wrath.'  He's a non-confrontational type... He only mentioned it softly to his boss that his kids and wife were exposed ... They all got it.  The two kids and wife self-resolved at home inside of a week - that seems to be the common experience from what I am gathering from others, too.  He ended in the hospital for 3 days, though on a banana-bag.  It seems that's what this is all about - not knowing who is going to self resolve on the couch in a four days, and who is going to need the banana bag ... or worse yet, intubation

Afterward, his boss acted blase about ... glib - just like a sociopath would.  Friend is quietly looking for a new gig.   

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nape time later next week? Looks like it on the EPS. 

I'm planning it being more like the OP run where we get CAD'd with 39F rain/drizzle.

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Post-Ides of March though might bring a last hurrah chance for a winter storm. That's probably our chance if we're trying to squeeze one more into the stat column. Pattern isn't exceptionally good, but there's a pretty decent cold supply lurking and some western/Rockies ridging tries to pop

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It's actually a good point, Will -

for all my protestations over this warm up happening - this region of the planet is always prone to that ...

This little micro spring climate gets left out of the larger look even when it's warm overall - it's like ones pattern recognition verifies from their prison cell -  

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I mean that mid level front on the op just rots over us for 3 days before finally pushing NE. Color me not optimistic.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm planning it being more like the OP run where we get CAD'd with 39F rain/drizzle.

Hopefully that front hangs up in Wilmington.

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49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My area of Mass will jackpot on that all spring, after being boned the whole winter.

It's like how do trees and plant life even grow in NE Mass...

I learned that crash course in 1984 ...when I moved to New England with family back then, Rockport Mas.  We arrived mid summer the previous year so it wasn't as noticeable.  The following April comes around... fog. Fog fog...more fog.  Sun comes out.. Finally!  It warms up, but 11:45 am, ice wind comes in, 64 to 38 in 30.1 seconds flat.. more fog - ahhh, not sure I like this, began to cross my mind. One Saturday I went down to watch my uncle''s softball game in Danvers... It was 70 F there. Sweet was the air in maple tree blossoms. Green grass in the ball park, and you could smell the 'melon' tones of it having just been groomed. In fact, the air carried the aromatic smell of land lover's warm season along with all these smells of brighter side of life.  For the first time in my life I actually appreciated small swarms of gnats behind people's heads. Different energy...  Back across the bridge into Cape Ann and by the time we arrived home... 44, with the deliciously life giving pall of low tide hanging in the air.   I definitely decided that I didn't want to live like that.

We moved to Acton later that summer ... I do miss the pier life.. The boat shoes and the smell of lobster steamers. The over-shoulder seagull whine as though asking me to liberate some of my bagel.   The sound of harbor bells.   Actually, in the winter itself there is a kind of ghostly value in serenity about that setting up there ...when the whir of polar marine wind is harmonic around telegraph poles and wires lining the shore roads..   It's a cultural acceptance - you cross the bridge on Yankee Division Highway ... cast no illusions over self that you are not in Kansas anymore, ocean meets land is beautiful..  It smells like oyster poop and salt nuclei, and if the breeze is blowing right from the down town... maybe the occasional waft of elephant ear fried dough ...  If one accepts the marine life, there is no ruptured expectations ... and its charm gathers its own value - and you can grow to miss that, given how time manufactures nostalgia. 

I still would only return for small doses though.. Knowing it's an option is good enough for me..

 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Steve's St Ides of March looks a bit better on the EPS. 

Lets get 70+ in next week with hints of a looming winter storm the following week.  I love those March yoyo patterns.  Today's weather, shoot it to the moon along with the UKIE, V16, and AMC stock.

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Didn't sleep a wink, wondering when the tree was going to land on me in bed.  Then around 6 am I noticed I was getting cold?  "Alexa, what's the temperature?"  No answer.  Get bundled up, get the genny going and I'm quite cold.  Brewed coffee, took a sip and zing, power back on.  I just let the damn thing run and made breakfast. 

Temp up to 19*F after lunch, has dropped to 14* already and it's blowing good again.  Sunny, clear as a bell.  At least it's some weather.

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Yeah... that's a good point actually -

in the spirit of it ... doesn't this wind bomb earlier today qualify as "In like a Lion" ??

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23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends...in my book, no. Steve's? Absolutely.

Pretty much fits the definition of the book I didn't write.  Lots of wind and cold. I don't believe precip is required 

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59 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... that's a good point actually -

in the spirit of it ... doesn't this wind bomb earlier today qualify as "In like a Lion" ??

Certainly was roaring like a lion.

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

@wx2fish pointed this out. Downslope dandy east of Sunday River and sugarloaf. 72 in Guilford too.

Those things are solid too

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Those things are solid too

That slopes off good too, to bad the ski racks were there, would have been an even better video 

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It could not be more painfully obvious these GFS models struggle with modulation or awareness ( somehow ...) going from cold --> warm d(seasons) physical forcing ...

It seems to diminish the the seasonal intake that is integral at point of ingest/initializations ... over the course of the runs.  Removing heat/diabatic hemispheric forcing like it assumes it error or something...  By D7 .. 10, it has all been removed .. asymptotically.  By D12 ...forget it -

It's why I wonder if this warm up next week might be bigger when it is at hand ..because it will no longer be processed through the GFS' 'season change vaccine'

Oh they do that. I always notice that when at a transition point in seasons, the ensuing weather changes frequenly arrive only 3-5 days out on a 10 day long term forecast, invalidating the previously predicted furthest 5 days beyond.

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