March 2021 Weather Discussion

[HIPPYVALLEY]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We debate, same annoying guitar  riffs in every song. 

Sooo boring.  

[Great Snow 1717]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This might be the first time ever lol.  Usually Scoots has good music taste , as he and I like a lot of similar stuff.. But in this case he is very very wrong just like his forecast of days 70’s next week

Actually it is the 2nd time lol

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One of the best rock bands in music history. Not debatable 

 

56 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Agree

At their best they may sneak into the top 20.  

[Typhoon Tip]

 

To day has a sneaky nape potential ... MOS is matured up ticks now ..44 MET and 48 MAV for KASH is bankable with nearly full sun, light wind - that's actually spot on the 'nape affect'

Nape - the faux warm appeal of calm wind under bathing higher intensity solar insolation isolating the observer from the actual temperature.  ...

Anyway, I could see some patio temperatures even nook their way to 51, and after low of 19 F ...that's also a sneaky very deep diurnal recovery. 

Just some weather obs this morning...

[SJonesWX]

10 hours ago, George001 said:

Well, looks like the storm threat next week is dead. I thought the models would start to bring it back today, but if anything they got even worse. The navy got a rid of the low so now all 3 models that I use don’t have a low. It appears that my forecast for next week is going to bust big time. The pattern initially looked good, but we look to be getting unlucky with the placement of the polar vortex. Its too far south so it will squash the storm. At least we have threats to track though, it’s not like the polar vortex is going to sit over the North Pole for all of March. It looks like it will head to the pole for 10 days or so before we get more chances for major nor’easters in the second half of March. On the long range models after the warm up I notice that they are breaking off pieces of the polar vortex and they are coming into central and eastern Canada. The MJO also appears to be going into the cold phases at a high amplitude, which should allow for a couple more chances before spring climo takes over. With both the Atlantic and the pacific drivers looking to become more cooperative in the 2nd half of March, we are not out of the woods yet despite getting unlucky with the polar vortex squashing the storm threat next week. 

give it up man. aside from a possible rogue storm, it's all over.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty much fits the definition of the book I didn't write.  Lots of wind and cold. I don't believe precip is required 

I understand that. Zero impact on my personal life, aside from an uncomfortable walk in and out from the car to the office.

So, its a no for me. Not debating the point, though...I get it.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

To day has a sneaky nape potential ... MOS is matured up ticks now ..44 MET and 48 MAV for KASH is bankable with nearly full sun, light wind - that's actually spot on the 'nape affect'

Nape - the faux warm appeal of calm wind under bathing higher intensity solar insolation isolating the observer from the actual temperature.  ...

Anyway, I could see some patio temperatures even nook their way to 51, and after low of 19 F ...that's also a sneaky very deep diurnal recovery. 

Just some weather obs this morning...

I just looked at satellite and at least until early aftn it should be fairly sunny. Winds look annoying though.

[ORH_wxman]

I'll believe 70F if we can get it inside of day 4.

[dendrite]

Finally warming up with a little mixing. Up to 25F from 18F an hour ago. Too bad the cold has to return for the weekend.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll believe 70F if we can get it inside of day 4.

About the same posture in relation to a major snow event in early-mid March lol

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just looked at satellite and at least until early aftn it should be fairly sunny. Winds look annoying though.

Yeah that's a critical factor ... I don't know what the 'wind chill' threshold is for busting up that fragile cocoon of mild air that bubbles around the nape ( haha...)

  I mean anything beyond flag wobbling starts interfering pretty fast..

[CoastalWx]

Even 60s is fine...I'm cool with not rushing 70. Just good to get nice wx every now and then despite the calendar being March.

[Typhoon Tip]

Right now we are calm here in Ayer.  Up from 19 to 31 already ... it's actually an explosive diurnal recovery already, without mixing.. We'll see what happens when this decoupled air mass couples back up -

I think the clouds up stream are oreographically vulnerable to d-slope evaporation tho - we'll see.

Edit: 33 .. it's rising fast!

[mreaves]

31 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

At their best they may sneak into the top 20.  

Greatest marketers ever though

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

About the same posture in relation to a major snow event in early-mid March lol

Yeah, was just musing that precisely - although I might be willing to make that distinction as warm vs cool season in general - the old d8 switch.

I feel this way about big heat monitoring ..circa late May thru early August - exactly ...Recognize the synoptic precursors, first - 'do they survive the GEF polar jet OCD gauntlet'; does the EPS carry the torch? ... etc...  Those are the type of internal monologues when at D10 ..etc.   If the signal is there on D5 ...I'll post - and summarily be ignored do to content of course... but that's another story.   Then, as Will's probably intimating there ... we need that D4-6 window to get passed the New England sore-butt, BD micro climate hell that sends signal destructor air masses SW under the flow even oblivious to God himself...   ..  which brings us to or < D4  LOL

I dunno ...I agree with your statement 100% ... If I were grading the quiz in this course, "Butt Bang Synoptics 101" .. I'd give you an A+ for that comparison, but I'd red ink a comment that says that of the two... "it does seem that heat side is even more fragile and prone to failure than the coveted D8 Euro bomb" ...

we just happen to remember the cruelty of failure in the winter more, because by nature of this committy...no one really gives enough-a shit to even pay attention to the abysmal heat-handling of the guidance in the summer.   Lol ..sorry, I find this all amusing -

[NorEastermass128]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even 60s is fine...I'm cool with not rushing 70. Just good to get nice wx every now and then despite the calendar being March.

40s, sun, and calm works too. Maybe a little SW breeze to keep the sea breeze at bay. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We debate, same annoying guitar  riffs in every song. 

Even Gene and Paul have said that they were never great musicians, which was part of the reason for all of the smoke and mirrors that started out small, and got to the scale that they have been for decades.  Basic rock riffs indeed, but as mreaves noted they know how to market themselves.

Kiss is always a good live show.  Always entertaining, and that's what they are. Entertainers. If you have never seen them live, try and catch them on this "final" tour.  It's a good time.

[ORH_wxman]

It does look like there could be some shenanigans mid month or a little after....pattern become a bit more favorable for a winter threat.

[Cold Miser]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It does look like there could be some shenanigans mid month or a little after....pattern become a bit more favorable for a winter threat.

Stop teasing us.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It does look like there could be some shenanigans mid month or a little after....pattern become a bit more favorable for a winter threat.

For shits and giggles I looked at the 6z GFS. I know this is random, but hr 348 reminds me of that sneaky good event on 3/19/13.  That was a great event in BOS.

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Bring it! (not the trough)

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

24.4F high here.   Prob a -16 type departure?

Reached 14° yesterday afternoon, tied with 12/17 for the season's coolest max.  Too bad it was spoiled by the cheap 25° high at my 9 PM obs the evening before.  Only 5 of 23 winters have failed to post a <10 max.  Five have had at least one subzero high.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For shits and giggles I looked at the 6z GFS. I know this is random, but hr 348 reminds me of that sneaky good event on 3/19/13.  That was a great event in BOS.

That isn't the fire hose event, right? I hate when you use the term "sneaky" because that limits upside by default.

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For shits and giggles I looked at the 6z GFS. I know this is random, but hr 348 reminds me of that sneaky good event on 3/19/13.  That was a great event in BOS.

12.5" here, season's biggest.

[MJO812]

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That isn't the fire hose event, right? I hate when you use the term "sneaky" because that limits upside by default.

No it was like a SWFE. IIRC, you guys did very well in NE MA. I think near 12"?  I suppose sneaky is subjective, but we did better than I thought we would near BOS hence sneaky. There was a good band of S+ that aligned WNW-ESE right over the city on north.  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 

Go back to work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

No it was like a SWFE. IIRC, you guys did very well in NE MA. I think near 12"?  I suppose sneaky is subjective, but we did better than I thought we would near BOS hence sneaky. There was a good band of S+ that aligned WNW-ESE right over the city on north.  

I don't recall that one, but I wasn't as invested for a couple of seasons around '13 and '14.....was back on my game in time for the big daddy of '15.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't recall that one, but I wasn't as invested for a couple of seasons around '13 and '14.....was back on my game in time for the big daddy of '15.

12.2" Reading COOP. So you did very well.

[Typhoon Tip]

This won't get read after this first sentence - I'm sure... but I've also noticed an interesting aspect about the synoptic behavior during springs into early summers over eastern N/A ...particularly along and above the mid latitudes. 

I've called it "continental folding pattern" - personal sort of euphemism for how the fast flow [ apparently ] of the mid and higher latitudes of the Pacific are still impinging on the super-circumstance of the western N/A high country - the cordillera of the Canadian - U.S. Rockies .. This longer termed persisting fast Pac flow is force up, and then by Coriolis convention/physics it is forced it to turn right producing DVM mass loading; which creates an enhanced tendency for higher heights ... Down stream is enhancing eastern Canadian trough

It seems to me more common in spring and autumn, ...and "I think" [ hypothesis incoming] ..that is the root cause in this seasonal lag effect people are catching onto. It's why it's snowing vastly more frequently in Octobers/Novembers than the previous 100 years of climo ( prior to ... 2000 etc..), as well, why we've have so many CAA events later into April and Mays...

These cold intrusions that are out of season are belied by the ongoing AN - baseline CC signal that's also in place at all times.  We don't see them in the yearly means...We just see a year that was .. decimals, or 1 or 2 above normal... But it has snowed in f'n May, like 9 of the last 19 springs ... and probably that often in October.. I remember in 1987, on October 10...there was a strong coastal storm that dumped an impressive early season blue bomb over the Capital District/western CT ... and I could smell the snow in the air even though it only rained here in eastern Mass.. I thought that was an incredible to 'smell snow' so early in the year...  Now?  ..it's like, Halloween so where's winter.

Anyway, ..even extending this later into late May into the mid summer period...I am noticing tendencies for a 700 to 500 mb level easterly flow to set up N of Bermuda that tends to come into the M/A ...more and more. This has muted big heat from getting up here... despite some big time toppy ridge looks at times.  The big ridge around the 4th of July ..I think that was 2017, ..the one where the GFS finally had to give up on its N/stream bias ...but in doing so, went completely nuts and put up 111 F high temperatures for HFD-BED like this was sage land between the jungle and desert over NE Sierra Leone of west Africa ... no problem...  of course we only managed 94 to 97 .. Big heat,  but believe it or not... left it on the field.

That set up hybridized that usually polarward position of the Bermuda deep layer typology such that that easterly "trade" jet came into the M/A .. and muted thicknesses under those towering 600 dm ridge heights.  You could have packed 585 thicknesses in there with east, and made a buck-04 out of that but it was like synoptic-scaled taint.  No one would notice that ... It's just unknowable to anyone outside tortured realm of crushing Meteorological-nerdology ... haha. Who would at 96/75 anyway -

But in general... I've seen this in a lot of June and July's in recent years.. where you set up an anticyclonic mid level rotation tendency between NS and Bermuda, which places the real heat conveyor up into the NE Lakes and Ontario - last year's big heat over NNE in May... while DCA-PHL-NYC were un-memorably warm, is probably the better example of a kind of synoptic inverse effect of the Bermuda ridge ( CC related no doubt...) ...re-positioning in the means more N.