uncle W Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The low temperatures in NYC seem to be doing better that the highs during the summer. Notice how there has been a slight decline in average high temperatures since 1981. This reflects the overgrowth of trees and vegetation. White Plains and NYC have a similar rise in minimum temperatures. But you can see the highs increasing there since the sensor at the airport isn’t under a dense canopy. So while people rightly take issue with Central Park snowfall measurements, the error is far less than the temperature sensor getting overgrown by vegetation. its hard to radiate when you have a roof of branches above the probe and being shaded it helps keep daytime highs down...so we have cooler highs and warmer lows...you can say that's because of the extra water vapor in the air...probably a little of both... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 hours ago, uncle W said: its hard to radiate when you have a roof of branches above the probe and being shaded it helps keep daytime highs down...so we have cooler highs and warmer lows...you can say that's because of the extra water vapor in the air...probably a little of both... COOP sites are maintained much better than Central Park. Most recent photo in 2013...must be even more overgrown by now... Old photo before vegetation was overgrown 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 I love getting weenie tags from the usual trolls in this subforum 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 if nothing else next week looks great for ski country good for anyone who wants to do some late season skiing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Negative NAO showing up on the models just in time for April lol Anyone ready for a cool and wet spring ? That figures. Our spring weather has been terrible as of late. I'm enjoying this current stretch of mild weather as much as I can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Long Beach 51 degrees right now, my neighborhood 63. So glad I don’t have to endure “spring” there again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Long Beach 51 degrees right now, my neighborhood 63. So glad I don’t have to endure “spring” there again. Oof. That breeze off the water is a killer this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Friday could be the warmest day of the year so far. Euro has mid to upper 70s. Then 50 mph + wind gust potential with the cold front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 51 minutes ago, gmendevils8204 said: Oof. That breeze off the water is a killer this time of year. Sound breeze for the extreme North shore too. Temps there in the low 50s with a north wind off the sound. Anywhere near a large body of water is chilly this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Long Beach 51 degrees right now, my neighborhood 63. So glad I don’t have to endure “spring” there again. I feel the same way having lived in Far Rockaway. 68 here, at least 15 degrees colder there. Summer occasionally sucked too with that Ambrose jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Friday could be the warmest day of the year so far. Euro has mid to upper 70s. Then 50 mph + wind gust potential with the cold front. With limited sunshine, it appears. We'd really be off to the races if it were to be a clear day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some showers, along with cooler temperatures. Following passage of the warm front, Thursday and Friday will be much warmer. Highs in the region will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s Thursday and lower to middle 70s with some upper 70s on Friday. Some showers and even thundershowers are possible, especially on Friday. A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief. Some of the guidance suggests that a cold shot and at least some snow could affect northern New England near the end of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +5.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.596 today. The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018. Select April Statistics: 1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1 1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3 1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2 1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013 Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926 Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015 Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020 Most days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (2.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 66 today. Was nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: Friday could be the warmest day of the year so far. Euro has mid to upper 70s. Then 50 mph + wind gust potential with the cold front. For west of the city sure. East of the city it's about when the front passes and winds turn westerly. If it's early to mid afternoon most of us could get over 70. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Much of the City is now tainted by the urban heat island effect. Parts of the northern Bronx and also Staten Island are less severely impacted. Central Park could be improved with some commitment to greater accuracy there. That would entail managing the tree growth around the station, measuring snowfall when the snow stops falling, etc. The issue of trees has a larger impact on temperatures. Don, what about the area near Bayside, Queens? I've always thought that part of the city had more natural conditions. The other area is near JFK or possibly parts of Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 15 hours ago, bluewave said: COOP sites are maintained much better than Central Park. Most recent photo in 2013...must be even more overgrown by now... Old photo before vegetation was overgrown whats their excuse for not cutting the vegetation- can't they be fined for not doing it? Fine them 1000 a day until they do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 10 hours ago, Cfa said: I feel the same way having lived in Far Rockaway. 68 here, at least 15 degrees colder there. Summer occasionally sucked too with that Ambrose jet. Maybe one of these days we'll figure out how to artificially heat up the oceans during springtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Interesting read for today/tonight from Mt. Holly .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The lengthy stretch of dry weather comes to an end today. Beautiful satellite imagery over the CONUS this morning as an occluding mid- latitude cyclone slowly approaches the western Great Lakes. Ahead of it lies an expansive frontal zone of cloud cover with a large band of cold cloud tops observed on IR from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation in most of this band is limited and on the light side as of early this morning, however. Meanwhile, a weak but pesky surface low which has sat well to our south for days was observed on radar moving inland over North Carolina overnight. The landfall was reminiscent of a weak tropical cyclone moving ashore. FSU cyclone phase space diagrams suggest it had at best a marginal and shallow warm core at landfall, and a lack of any deep convection rendered it firmly non-tropical. But it has a good envelope of higher moisture air associated with it from the sub-tropics, and as the day goes on it will begin to interact with the approaching frontal zone. This combination will lead to the blossoming of an area of showers which will bring a solid dose of rain to the area. Prior to the start of rainfall, we`ve seen low clouds fill in over much of the area overnight as the low levels moisten further in the continued light onshore flow regime. This trend should continue into daybreak, and we should see more in the way of fog develop as well. It is possible we could see some breaks in the clouds during the mid morning hours as mixing begins and before rain arrives, but this is uncertain and probably less likely than not. As the day goes on, what remains of the low to the south will become entrained in the slow moving frontal zone and will move towards our region. Continuing a trend that has been ongoing for at least 36 hours now, most model guidance continues to trend higher on QPF for this event. There has certainly been a trend higher in projected PWATs for today, which appear poised to rise to 1.2 to 1.4 inches across the region. Low level omega shows notable improvement over the area today, especially this afternoon. There is also a somewhat subtle ~95 kt upper jet streak which moves into New York state this afternoon, adding a bit of divergence at the upper levels. With this said, continuing the connections to tropical weather, there are at least some loose parallels to a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in play today with the rising PWATs and right entrance jet dynamics, especially considering the actual center of the compact low remains south of the region for most of the day. While there is quite a bit of variation in the models, it now appears many areas will pick up 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain today, with the potential for some localized higher amounts especially over southeastern portions of the area near the low center, and possibly over eastern PA with some orographic enhancement as well as the better jet dynamics. The trends have been a little slower on timing of rainfall, but showers should overspread the region from southwest to northeast mainly between 9AM and 2PM. Lighter showers or drizzle are possible before the arrival of steadier rain. Once the steadier rain arrives, it should continue through at least most of the daylight hours, possibly tapering off late in the day to the southwest. Given the rising PWATs and respectable dynamics, some heavier downpours are possible. So a wet day overall, especially this afternoon. While the air mass remains on the warm side, the rain and clouds will hold highs down in the mid to upper 50s in most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 The last 8 days of March are averaging 54degs.(45/63), or +8.0. Month to date is 42.2[+1.0]. March should end at 45.2[+2.7]. 50*(86%RH) here at 6am. 54* by 9am. 57* by 11am. 53* at 5pm (rain started back at 2pm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 The weak low that almost had subtropical characteristics will bring some much needed rains today. The models have elevated convection with locally heavy downpour potential. This tucked in low track looks similar to the tropical systems last summer that affected the area. More of the same on tap for this year? Stay tuned.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy. There will also be periods of rain, especially during the afternoon. It will be cooler than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 56° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 59° Tomorrow and Friday will be much warmer days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe one of these days we'll figure out how to artificially heat up the oceans during springtime. That’d honestly be amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don, what about the area near Bayside, Queens? I've always thought that part of the city had more natural conditions. The other area is near JFK or possibly parts of Staten Island. Bayside might work. Southern Queens is probably more affected by the sea breeze than most of the City. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 9 hours ago, jm1220 said: For west of the city sure. East of the city it's about when the front passes and winds turn westerly. If it's early to mid afternoon most of us could get over 70. The 0z Euro was even more aggressive with the warming for Long Island with the WSW afternoon wind shift. Now has 70s away from the immediate South Shore beaches. That would result in steeper low level lapse rates and wind gust potential over 50 mph. We will have to watch for that sting jet-like feature behind the front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 0z Euro was even more aggressive with the warming for Long Island with the WSW afternoon wind shift. Now has 70s away from the immediate South Shore beaches. That would result in steeper low level lapse rates and wind gust potential over 50 mph. We will have to watch for that sting jet-like feature behind the front. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a marginal get hoisted for if any convection can be along the front as well, should easily mix winds down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The weak low that almost had subtropical characteristics will bring some much needed rains today. The models have elevated convection with locally heavy downpour potential. This tucked in low track looks similar to the tropical systems last summer that affected the area. More of the same on tap for this year? Stay tuned.... The area between the main tracks just north east of the Bahamas should be primed with OHC this season. Majors create so much upwelling the can effect OHC for several seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible. No snow at all in January and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible. No snow at all in January and March. Outside of the December monster it was a 3 week winter.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 44 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible. No snow at all in January and March. That’s why 1995-1996 remains the undisputed seasonal snowfall champion. Even with our snowier climate since 2003, it’s been too difficult to get more than 2 months with 10”+ snowfall during any given season in NYC. 2010-2011 may have come closest if we could have kept the snowy pattern going another month or so. 1995-1996 was the last time NYC had 4 months with 10”+ snowfall and 2 with 20”+ in a single season. Part of the issue is that winters have become warmer since the snowfall increase in 2002-2003. So we can’t get the extended cold from late November to April like we had that year. It’s also very difficult to get a perfect Atlantic and Pacific blocking pattern for such a long duration like we had in 1995-1996. 10”+ snowfall months bolded Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T M 38.6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Outside of the December monster it was a 3 week winter.... Being the climate fully goes to crap I hope we can get one more 95/96 style winter. Not sure it's possible anymore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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