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Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion


madwx
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18 hours ago, madwx said:

after a brief colder shot early next week there are signs that the middle and end of next week could get downright mild, with 50s and 60s getting at least into southern Wisconsin

Willing to bet the back door will shut down those kinds of temps. We'll see.
I'm just glad the melt looks to be gradual to avert flooding situations.

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On 2/19/2021 at 2:57 PM, andyhb said:

Look on the ensembles heading into March would suggest the potential for a warmer/wet period, with the possibility of severe wx somewhere, particularly east of the Plains. Again, this is tied to the retrograding longwave pattern across North America and the Eastern Pacific.

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Can be seen here in the 12z EPS mean, watch the behavior of the ridging that generally starts over the eastern Pacific, whose retrogression eventually leads to the jet dropping into the Pacific NW.

Or we could just drop into split flow for the umpteenth time in the past decade and erase any chance for severe/a decent spring pattern, smh.

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1 hour ago, Ground Scouring said:

Is there any overriding, large-scale, climatic forcing that is likely behind this? It definitely seems to be a theme, regardless of other factors.

I can't help but think the warming Pacific is influencing it.

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So severe weather season is a dud because the first couple of weeks of March look less than ideal? This is like all of the talk in here about snow futility records last December. This is the first spring in a long time that has a decent looking -PDO. I think we should give it a chance.

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9 minutes ago, roardog said:

So severe weather season is a dud because the first couple of weeks of March look less than ideal? This is like all of the talk in here about snow futility records last December. This is the first spring in a long time that has a decent looking -PDO. I think we should give it a chance.

Oh, but isn't it more fun to call a dud now?

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52 minutes ago, roardog said:

So severe weather season is a dud because the first couple of weeks of March look less than ideal? This is like all of the talk in here about snow futility records last December. This is the first spring in a long time that has a decent looking -PDO. I think we should give it a chance.

Oh, I'm more than happy to give it a chance, but the last few years have significantly tempered my optimism/expectations going into spring.

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With all of the historic flooding around here, many of us need a break for the next several days so no complaints here.

Height anomalies look encouraging toward mid March. More of a typical trough west/ridge east scenario. Jet pattern really amplifies around that timeframe. 

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The thing with this season is that the overall pattern, long range climatological guidance, and analog set(I'm using 2011, 2018, 2009, 2008, 1976 and 1974) are all suggestive that this is a severe season that peaks in March and April before simmering down into May and June with expanding drought in the plains and potentially western sub by July and August (especially if we start heading towards a 2nd year nina). Obviously not a surefire thing, but taking what is shown at face value, I'm not about to count on May and June to roar in well above average. Who knows, I might be eating boots by then.

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