Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,788
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    johnduzzee
    Newest Member
    johnduzzee
    Joined

Spring 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion


madwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

45 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Drought talk is going to be at full volume soon for the areas north of 80 in IL. 

I think drought alone will be a big feedback mechanism for an above normal summer.

Fully agree temp wise since I remember 1988.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Fully agree temp wise since I remember 1988.

Isn’t 1988 another one of those years we don’t speak of when comparing current conditions (like a certain year last decade and a certain year in the Dust Bowl era)?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Fully agree temp wise since I remember 1988.

1988 is the holy grail of heat waves to me. It is the summer equivalent of the '78 blizzard.

I drove from Indiana to Washington D. C. the middle of July in an F-150 with no air conditioning and spent a few days sightseeing on the Mall with temps in the mid-upper 90's every day. I don't remember the exact date, but it hit 104° at the airport on one of those days. The Mall was cookin'.

Good times.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

1988 is the holy grail of heat waves to me. It is the summer equivalent of the '78 blizzard.

I drove from Indiana to Washington D. C. the middle of July in an F-150 with no air conditioning and spent a few days sightseeing on the Mall with temps in the mid-upper 90's every day. I don't remember the exact date, but it hit 104° at the airport on one of those days. The Mall was cookin'.

Good times.

1988 is the 2012 for people older than me. Another year that comes to mind is 1995. Crazy thing about 1995 in Pittsburgh is we had an 8 day streak and a separate 7 day streak of highs in the 90s and a maximum temperature for the summer of 100 (haven’t hit 100 since) that was not part of either of those stretches.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 A few days ago I posted qpf maps through next week for the GFS and Euro.  Unfortunately, the dry GFS is looking more correct.  The Euro surged moisture and storms up into the lakes, but that is looking unlikely.  This weekend's rain has mostly vanished and now it may be at least mid next week before anything can lift up into our region.  The latest Euro now has nothing until Thursday.  Ugh.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

 A few days ago I posted qpf maps through next week for the GFS and Euro.  Unfortunately, the dry GFS is looking more correct.  The Euro surged moisture and storms up into the lakes, but that is looking unlikely.  This weekend's rain has mostly vanished and now it may be at least mid next week before anything can lift up into our region.  The latest Euro now has nothing until Thursday.  Ugh.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

This ain't your grandaddy's G(oo)F(u)S...or (King) Euro, for that matter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, roardog said:

If we are going to do heat then give me ‘95 over ‘88. Unless you’re looking for an extreme air temperature then you should want to take the humid summer of ‘95 to at least get a derecho or two.

I was only 9 but I remember the summer of '95 being quite stormy in this neck of the woods. I also remember sleeping in the living room a lot because my room upstairs was too stifling. We had an older house with one window A/C unit in the living room downstairs and one in my parents' room upstairs, which they didn't like to use because the wiring up there wasn't upgraded (two two-hole outlets in their room, one in each of the other two bedrooms).

Ofc, that was already a much better chase season than this with several events in April and May, then the famous early June TX Panhandle outbreaks.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

This ain't your grandaddy's G(oo)F(u)S...or (King) Euro, for that matter.

Was just looking at the GFS this morning and thinking about how lost it seems - it appears it has returned to its island with respect to how the pattern evolves later next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Sounds like the Euro is just as bad, though.

Oh, it has been. The only difference is it doesn’t completely flip on the large scale pattern beyond day 7 seemingly every run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, frostfern said:

The Euro changes every 3 runs.  Neither is reliable at this point.

Maybe it’s just easier and more convenient to be critical of the GFS because my tax dollars weren’t just spent to “upgrade” the Euro to a new version that seems to perform worse than the old one. :lol:

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

I might be a skeptic, but I'll believe it when I see it. :whistle:

Dissipating cutoff ejecting from the SW US will probably bring some summer-like humidity.  Problem is even if that does take a path into our area, it will probably only trigger hit-and-miss diurnal stuff, concentrated wherever the lake breeze sets up.  Hardly a drought breaker if there isn't a more substantial system later on in model-uncertainly-land.  Also the cutoff shown hasn't even formed yet over California.  If it tracks too far west we'll end up hot and dry. :(

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

^I use to follow Cohen, but as much as he comes off as a pattern recognition met, he can flip on a dime if models switch. And a coolish late May early June is hardly news. Summer never hits for good in these parts until mid June. Though, based on general thought I'd hoped for a Phoneix, AZ type late May. Probably another case of delayed not denied. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Greenland block in summer can sometimes mean an active pattern though, which would be good.  Without any high latitude blocking low pressure systems in summer tend to head up into Canada and the trailing cold fronts come through dry.  Blocking in conjunction with a SE-ridge-favorabe MJO would be the best for drought mitigation here in Michigan.  That is if it can lead to a stationary boundary oscillating just N or S of I-80.  The fact that it's late May rather than June means the front might still stall too far south to make me happy though.  :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...