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Monday Morning 2/22 Snow Event

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30 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Rgem with Baltimore bullseye :snowing: Actually Dundalk/ Middle river  6 incher 

If my area ever ends up being the "bullseye", I'll eat my shorts... literally 

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
248 AM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-

...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE /
WASHINGTON METRO AREAS MONDAY MORNING...

There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the
Monday morning commute. A period of snow is POSSIBLE (a 40
percent chance) before the Monday morning rush hour ends across
the Baltimore / Washington metro areas with up to an inch
accumulation on area roads. The area with the highest risk of snow
arriving before rush hour ends is northwest of Interstate 95.

(snip)

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33 minutes ago, CAPE said:

NAM got this. Looks completely reasonable too given the setup.

1614038400-QBkAAjnpb4w.png

If I had to make a forecast map for this one, that would be it. 

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14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I think the guys who live in a place that won't get anything from this shouldn't be making accumulation predictions....their cranky asses are too biased :hurrbear:

It’s a stat padder for you NW guys no doubt. But I’m not gonna believe a couple 10:1 maps that put down 4-6” in my neck of the woods during the middle of the day with temps generally above freezing. The only thing this has going for it is the cold antecedent temps before precipitation that makes the ground colder than it would normally be. That likely helps some folks for a couple hours late Monday morning 

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

It’s a stat padder for you NW guys no doubt. But I’m not gonna believe a couple 10:1 maps that put down 4-6” in my neck of the woods during the middle of the day with temps generally above freezing. The only thing this has going for it is the cold antecedent temps before precipitation that maybe makes the ground colder than it would normally be. That likely helps some folks for a couple hours late Monday morning 

I'm not expecting concrete accumulations but I'm game for some old sleet refreshing. The grass looks like one of Ellenwoods old maps with that translucent gray...I mean i don't live in Fairfax County for gosh sakes

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4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

It’s a stat padder for you NW guys no doubt. But I’m not gonna believe a couple 10:1 maps that put down 4-6” in my neck of the woods during the middle of the day with temps generally above freezing. The only thing this has going for it is the cold antecedent temps before precipitation that makes the ground colder than it would normally be. That likely helps some folks for a couple hours late Monday morning 

C'mon this is a helluva setup for the lowlands. 

1613995200-8cqjBM8e4T8.png

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The NAM has been doing terrible with this just as it did with the last "event" its slowly speeding up the progression and intensity but still not there 

5983ce60-bdb0-48f2-a0e0-5ce3dbee4f3d.gif

26603507-5d99-4c21-9464-0575cbae8060.gif

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12k Nam a bit quicker again compared to 6z . Frederick by 8am or so and Bmore by 9am ish. Not bad but if we could speed it up another hour or so  would definitely go a long way for Baltimore on east. 

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25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm not expecting concrete accumulations but I'm game for some old sleet refreshing. The grass looks like one of Ellenwoods old maps with that translucent gray...I mean i don't live in Fairfax County for gosh sakes

The difference between Leesburg and the northwestern tip of Loudoun County is stark.  I still have 100% snow cover with 5-6 inches and 50% cover on my access road.  I drive into Hillsboro and it has all but disapeared.

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1 minute ago, Roger Ramjet said:

The difference between Leesburg and the northwestern tip of Loudoun County is stark.  I still have 100% snow cover with 5-6 inches and 50% cover on my access road.  I drive into Hillsboro and it has all but disapeared.

Yeah Leesburg has had a less than great year...the fact that Sykesville is doing about 5-6" better in what would typically be a similar climate shows how this year is more lat than long for storms.

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40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

C'mon this is a helluva setup for the lowlands. 

1613995200-8cqjBM8e4T8.png

On paper it doesn't look like anything but occasionally we  get a light to mod event from a otherwise crappy setup :whistle:. It's happened before and tomorrow looks to deliver a nice WWA event for some lowlands . I personally think i83 and east bullseye ( highest qpf max)with places getting 3-4" maby a 5" lollie in nw Harford or Hereford zone or north of  bel air even Down towards Timonium- Towson could do well. Rates look nice and the airmass leading in is fairly legit . I bet Bmore even sees 1-2" 

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38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

C'mon this is a helluva setup for the lowlands. 

1613995200-8cqjBM8e4T8.png

Hmmm... I don't know about that. Instability looks too low for a decent convective severe threat down there. If dews were a bit higher then I'd agree. :D

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