February 18/19 Party - STORM MODE

[Deck Pic]

Congrats Ji

[caviman2201]

1 minute ago, Quasievil said:

Exactly. By the time it starts sleeting, we've got a comfortable snow pack. Lock it up.

I agree I'm just saying the map showing 9" is misleading... 18Z NAM was good to the whole area for sure I'd lock it up in a heartbeat.

[SnowDreamer]

The run isn't over, but this 4.4" jack lolli on the 3k for DCA is hilarious. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

Congrats Ji

If that map verifies it will be a proper bust for basically our entire subforum except DCA lol. 

[osfan24]

3K is reallllyyy ugly for the area. It snows for an hour or two in most spots. Great consensus we got going on this mix line!

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

LWX updated their maps... 

I’m holding them to that 8-12 up here. There will be consequences...might have to wag my finger even!  

[Deck Pic]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

If that map verifies it will be a proper bust for basically our entire subforum except DCA lol. 

Something is wrong with the algorithm output...I probably shouldnt have posted lol...Toss

[Chris78]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’m holding them to that 8-12 up here. There will be consequences...might have to wag my finger even!  

Great minds think alike lol. Wasn't your map 6 to 12?

[frd]

Just now, osfan24 said:

3K is reallllyyy ugly for the area. It snows for an hour or two in most spots. Great consensus we got going on this mix line!

4 miles NW of me there is a Winter storm warning, still waiting to see whether Mount Holly advances the Winter Storm Watch here to Warning. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

Something is wrong with the algorithm output...I probably shouldnt have posted lol...Toss

BTW is it nice for you to be out of urban heat island hell?  I remember all your obs from past events basically 40 degrees and sad hahaha.  Do you take some trips up to Canaan at all?

[Deck Pic]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

BTW is it nice for you to be out of urban heat island hell?  I remember all your obs from past events basically 40 degrees and sad hahaha.  Do you take some trips up to Canaan at all?

Thanks...I love Davis/Canaan...I will go out there soon.  Only 90 minutes away.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Congrats Ji

Wtf is that BS?  That better be a 1 hour snowfall map! 

[Deck Pic]

Low Res NAM, better solution...

[mappy]

Oh thank goodness. that 3k nam snow map was UGLY

[SnowDreamer]

NAM twins making a BIG move in the viagra-direction for DCA. 

[leesburg 04]

Fair to say 0z models will still be relevant for this storm due to timing of the start, Im expecting a positive game time shift

[Deck Pic]

Hard pass on taking this run (or really any NAM run) seriously.

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Low Res NAM, better solution...

Where have I seen this scenario play out before..........

This map should be the poster child for the 2020-2021 winter.

[Always in Zugzwang]

9 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Congrats Ji

What's the total QPF look like...is it just as pock-marked looking as this?

[SnowGolfBro]

11 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Congrats Ji

The teachers will have Ji’s head if this verifies

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

What's the total QPF look like...is it just as pock-marked looking as this?

It looks like a 3 year old drew it with crayons after guzzling some mountain dew from their sippy cup.

[midatlanticweather]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wtf is that BS?  That better be a 1 hour snowfall map! 

You may be right! Seems to snow for just one hour.

 

[Quasievil]

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Hard pass on taking this run (or really any NAM run) seriously.

Def the standard issue NAM overdoing precip.

[clskinsfan]

Just a slight difference in qpf from the two NAM's out this way. 3k says .5 total. 12K says 1.1 total. Nice consistency. 

[Treyfish]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
311 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lwx&wwa=winter storm warning

[Winter Wizard]

I'll throw my hat in the ring this time. I like 1-3/2-4" for DC before the changeover, a little more in Baltimore with amounts steadily increasing to the north and west. More concerned about the potential for prolonged icing along and east of I-95.
 

 

[Deck Pic]

Too bad...would have liked to see it run over the mid atlantic

[gymengineer]

8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

What's the total QPF look like...is it just as pock-marked looking as this?

As Matt said, something’s off about the WB Kuchera map. This is the hour DC and southwest flip to sleet. The 0.5+” band is narrower than in the 12K, but its nowhere as funky as the Kuchera map suggests. 

[Ji]

Wtf is that BS?  That better be a 1 hour snowfall map! 

No thanks if that is the future nam

[Always in Zugzwang]

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

As Matt said, something’s off about the WB Kuchera map. This is the hour DC and southwest flip to sleet. The 0.5+” band is narrower than in the 12K, but its nowhere as funky as the Kuchera map suggests. 

Thanks.  Yeah, something looks a little odd.  And sorry @Deck Pic, didn't see you had already posted the total QPF just before I asked my question, but thanks!