SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 NAM twins making a BIG move in the viagra-direction for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Fair to say 0z models will still be relevant for this storm due to timing of the start, Im expecting a positive game time shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Low Res NAM, better solution... Where have I seen this scenario play out before.......... This map should be the poster child for the 2020-2021 winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Congrats Ji What's the total QPF look like...is it just as pock-marked looking as this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Congrats Ji The teachers will have Ji’s head if this verifies 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wtf is that BS? That better be a 1 hour snowfall map! You may be right! Seems to snow for just one hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Hard pass on taking this run (or really any NAM run) seriously. Def the standard issue NAM overdoing precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just a slight difference in qpf from the two NAM's out this way. 3k says .5 total. 12K says 1.1 total. Nice consistency. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treyfish Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 311 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lwx&wwa=winter storm warning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'll throw my hat in the ring this time. I like 1-3/2-4" for DC before the changeover, a little more in Baltimore with amounts steadily increasing to the north and west. More concerned about the potential for prolonged icing along and east of I-95. 13 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: What's the total QPF look like...is it just as pock-marked looking as this? As Matt said, something’s off about the WB Kuchera map. This is the hour DC and southwest flip to sleet. The 0.5+” band is narrower than in the 12K, but its nowhere as funky as the Kuchera map suggests. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Wtf is that BS? That better be a 1 hour snowfall map! No thanks if that is the future nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: As Matt said, something’s off about the WB Kuchera map. This is the hour DC and southwest flip to sleet. The 0.5+” band is narrower than in the 12K, but its nowhere as funky as the Kuchera map suggests. Thanks. Yeah, something looks a little odd. And sorry @Deck Pic, didn't see you had already posted the total QPF just before I asked my question, but thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Too bad...would have liked to see it run over the mid atlantic Would be nice if LWX would do some supplemental balloon launches tomorrow as well to assess the warm layer. It's a shame BWI/DCA don't have balloon launches as well (being closer to the fall line). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 54 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: HRRR nailed the storm last Thursday in this area FWIW. Was the first thing advertising 4-6". I like having it on our side in the short-range, it's done really well this winter as far as I can recall. I think it was the only model having CHO even sniffing 5" And it was money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 26 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 3K is reallllyyy ugly for the area. It snows for an hour or two in most spots. Great consensus we got going on this mix line! In this area, usually best to hug the least snowiest model. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 36 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: 18Z NAM coming in snowier for the cities vs 12Z You realize that’s measuring two different time periods? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 26 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Hard pass on taking this run (or really any NAM run) seriously. Not sure what’s up with these WB maps but NCEP totals for my area are well over 1 inch where that has 1/2” Edit: never mind. Dumbass at play here. Didn’t realize it was the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 As long as we can avoid cloud cover until 7 or 8pm I think most of us will dive back into the 20s pretty quick. Obviously the favored areas may already be there but more referencing the fall liners. The dry airmass is stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: In this area, usually best to hug the least snowiest model. Isn’t your area New Hampshire? How’s it look for you? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 And this is why snowfall maps from individual model runs are literally pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Isn’t your area New Hampshire? How’s it look for you? So angry... Hope you get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Time to switch to obs and now casting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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