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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat


NorthHillsWx
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GFS trend below for ZR. Main thing I would note is this is not just CAD related. Notice the ZR line over the Miss Valley is trending SE as well, meaning the HP is pressing further south. The trend today is been to push this HP and corresponding cold front through a bit deeper.  Setting up a more suppressed solution. From Apps runner, to Miller B to now a hybrid Miller A/B. 

trend-gfs-2021021618-f084.zr_acc.us_ma.gif

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2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Heads up guys, I just talked with Larry Cosgrove, he says the cold air damming is waayyyyy overdone by the models. Should be a cold rain for most ....

;-) :-0

(got to be a board oldtimer to appreciate that one) 

I will beat Brandon and Jeremy to wish an inch of ice on you.

 

Or not,lol.

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3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Funny thing is, I think someone in the upstate got close to an inch that storm.

It was like 2005. Was prob the last good ZR storm i've seen. I was home for winter break from UNCG. I'm sure I said something smartazz to get him to say that.

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Just now, featherwx said:

Hey y’all, based on these trends, should I go ahead and tell my mom in Durham County (about 5 miles NW of the city) to prepare to lose power? Or would that be jumping the gun?

Plan on it but don’t count on it. I’m 7 miles NW and it definitely looks suboptimal here given today’s trends.

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

Nam is warming Athens, Georgia  from 31/19 Wednesday morning to 49/33 under north East winds. I find it odd that the wetbulb Would rise that much with a northeasterly feed. I could see things verifying dryer/colder Wednesday for wedge areas. Something to watch 

Ne ga appears to be on the edge (as usual lol) and another close call. If the trends continue hopefully there will be more frozen precip in ne ga. A lot of the storms this year didn’t trend enough at the end. However the snow a couple of Saturdays ago worked out for a change. With so much volatility and as close as some areas are I just hope things clarify a bit over night. Otherwise another now cast for some of us as a degree or two could make a pretty big difference. I was surprised to see parts of the upstate and Rabun cty with a wsw this afternoon

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1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

This for sure! Remember this is what all the models, I mean every single one, missed on for our snow event. They all underestimated the dry air at the surface by a significant margin leading to a stronger in-situ wedge and a busted forecast for most of them. 

Lol ditto. I should have kept reading before posting a reply to Burrell lol. Looks like clayton is in a good spot for this. Habersham usually does pretty well in cad events but doesn’t look like it as much this time 

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20 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

He said that to me. That pompous azz lol.  My brother still laughs at me about it.

That was an all time classic. And yes there was an inch in quite a few place in ne ga and the upstate. One of the biggest ice storms I have been in. it was December 05 I think. 
 

ps is there a way to edit/copy or merge posts? 

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1 hour ago, HKY_WX said:

He said that to me. That pompous azz lol.  My brother still laughs at me about it.

Hickory.     That storm made you famous.   I was also without power for 5 days.   That’s why I’m cringing when I hear people say that those high ice totals don’t happen.   We got 3/4 in of ice from that storm. 

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