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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat


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1 minute ago, srobby76 said:

Long time follower of these events and most have fallen apart on us, with that being said would yall cancel a training for people driving to Durham from the triad and Triangle for thursday and Friday.  I have to decide today to prevent any charges for cancellations.

Just my opinion, but major roads will more than likely be just wet, but as it usually goes for me is people have trouble getting out of neighborhoods due to hazards.  If it was me, I would cancel.

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1 minute ago, srobby76 said:

Long time follower of these events and most have fallen apart on us, with that being said would yall cancel a training for people driving to Durham from the triad and Triangle for thursday and Friday.  I have to decide today to prevent any charges for cancellations.

I would, personally, if the decision had to be made today. 

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4 minutes ago, srobby76 said:

Long time follower of these events and most have fallen apart on us, with that being said would yall cancel a training for people driving to Durham from the triad and Triangle for thursday and Friday.  I have to decide today to prevent any charges for cancellations.

Yes. We have already started calling all of our Thursday morning patients to change their visits to video visits or reschedule. 

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1 hour ago, jburns said:

Then there are those of us who just have to walk a few feet to escape winter’s wrath.  Since the county line runs right through my house I have a Winter Storm Watch in my garage, dining room and den but the rest of the house is in the non-event zone.  I guess I should be thankful that I will only have to worry about the trees on the northern part of my property.  :rolleyes:

At least the southern portion of your house will still have power!:D

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Just now, PantherJustin said:

I’ve wondered I’ve never seen the FRAM model 

FRAM isn't a model, it's an algorithm that calculated true accrual of  ice. It tends to be much more conservative than just straight accumulation maps.This is why it's concerning, because it will account for the portion of the rain that's just runoff.

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From a climo perspective, the 12z EURO SLP track is much more of a Snow to Sleet/Ice track (especially for interior sections of NC/VA). Certainly not a pure ZR track ending in rain that will push 10C+ 850 temps into interior NC...

This will be interesting to following in the mods today/tomorrow. This system will likely feature much more sleet than we're seeing currently (at least for the interior/NW NC/S VA sections).

floop-ecmwf_full-2021021612.sfcwind_mslp.us_se.gif

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4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

FRAM isn't a model, it's an algorithm that calculated true accrual of  ice. It tends to be much more conservative than just straight accumulation maps.This is why it's concerning, because it will account for the portion of the rain that's just runoff.

It tries to. I still have real questions about accrual if it’s gonna be 50 degrees at 850mb. We’ve had numerous potential ZR events bust over the years due to heavy rates and stout warm noses.

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7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

FRAM isn't a model, it's an algorithm that calculated true accrual of  ice. It tends to be much more conservative than just straight accumulation maps.This is why it's concerning, because it will account for the portion of the rain that's just runoff.

Ahhh dear lord Thats rough then

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3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

From a climo perspective, the 12z EURO SLP track is much more of a Snow to Sleet/Ice track (especially for interior sections of NC/VA). Certainly not a pure ZR track ending in rain that will push 10C+ 850 temps into interior NC...

This will be interesting to following in the mods today/tomorrow. This system will likely feature much more sleet than we're seeing currently (at least for the interior/NW NC/S VA sections).

floop-ecmwf_full-2021021612.sfcwind_mslp.us_se.gif

Thanks. This SLP track is one we’ve seen many times produce the Carolina mixed bag of snow/sleet/zr. The warm 850’s in this setup create the fly in the ointment. They are anomalous for a slp track such as this 

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15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

FRAM isn't a model, it's an algorithm that calculated true accrual of  ice. It tends to be much more conservative than just straight accumulation maps.This is why it's concerning, because it will account for the portion of the rain that's just runoff.

Yes, it's one of the many "grayed-out" premium features under the Winter Weather tab for the various model suites offered on Pivotal Weather.

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Blacksburg just extended their WSW products to their southern tier of counties.  GSP, what say you?

Quote

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
159 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...Significant mix of wintry precipitation possible...

.A low pressure system will bring wintry precipitation across the
Mid Atlantic starting on Wednesday night. Significant amounts of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain are possible. The precipitation
may start as a mix of snow and sleet on Wednesday night and
change over to freezing rain for most locations by Thursday.
Colder air could change the precipitation back to a mix of snow
and sleet by late Thursday evening.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-170500-
/O.EXB.KRNK.WS.A.0006.210218T0000Z-210219T0500Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-
Bland-Wythe-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone,
Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Wytheville,
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
159 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations up to a
  quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Virginia and north central and
  northwest North Carolina.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

 

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Tim Buckley: 

There are times when you look at what's coming and have a pit in your stomach when putting together the forecast.

Some tough days are ahead for the Triad later this week with our second ice storm in a week.

Get ready as best you can today/tomorrow. 

#ncwx #StormTrack2 https://t.co/mT1fn3cL9k

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