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NorthHillsWx

February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat

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Models trending warmer at the last minute, no way! Shouldn't complain though could save me from days of power issues. Last 2 NAM runs have ticked warmer 

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10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Models trending warmer at the last minute, no way! Shouldn't complain though could save me from days of power issues. Last 2 NAM runs have ticked warmer 

I think they’re just starting to hone in on small nuances at this point more than anything. 3K more than doubled my ice total from 6z. We’re Nowcasting at this point anyways.

edit: plus the HRRR is trending towards a more significant event which is not good news. It was spot on 2 weeks ago. 

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1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

I think they’re just starting to hone in on small nuances at this point more than anything. 3K more than doubled my ice total from 6z. We’re Nowcasting at this point anyways.

Yeah the NAM actually lowered my ICE Totals but the HRRR still has over 3/4" here... models will go back and forth with minor changes from thus point on

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Models trending warmer at the last minute, no way! Shouldn't complain though could save me from days of power issues. Last 2 NAM runs have ticked warmer 

Not surprised, like clockwork and has been the story the this entire winter. Everyone should be prepared for power outages because that would be too dangerous to go conservative with it being this close but personally I don’t see anything more than a nuisance event for the foothills. I do want the ice however.
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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah the NAM actually lowered my ICE Totals but the HRRR still has over 3/4" here... models will go back and forth with minor changes from thus point on

I’ll happily donate my ice totals to anyone that wants them 

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I think they’re just starting to hone in on small nuances at this point more than anything. 3K more than doubled my ice total from 6z. We’re Nowcasting at this point anyways.
edit: plus the HRRR is trending towards a more significant event which is not good news. It was spot on 2 weeks ago. 

It was spot on with the placement of the heaviest precipitation but not so much the totals. I don’t put much faith into its ZR maps.
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The NAM unless I’m looking at it wrong (Pivotal Map) doesn’t even barely have Precip into Foothills even at 6Z Tomm.... could be a reason it seems warmer Jmo I think earlier onset the Colder obviously Edit: As Well as the HP is 75-100 miles Further NW than 6Z run

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

Seeing the UKMET drop me to 28 with the precip starting is slightly alarming.

Yeah will be interesting to see how low the temps go and remember,  IP pings , and ZR clings....

Dropping rhymes like dimes.

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2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’ll happily donate my ice totals to anyone that wants them 

I live in Valdese in Burke County and will gladly take it. I really hope to get near 0.50 or so.

If not at least 0.40. This will probably be my last chance this winter for anything.

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Just now, magpiemaniac said:

The wind—something that wasn’t an issue during this past weekend’s event—will more than make up for any slightly reduced ice accretion that might happen.

Yeah that is definitely not looking good!

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The wind—something that wasn’t an issue during this past weekend’s event—will more than make up for any slightly reduced ice accretion that might happen.

That and the soil in most places is very saturated.

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We have seen it before this winter with the models getting aggressive only to pull back a bit northwest at the last minute. RAH busted on a few winter storm warnings this year because of that.

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Just now, eyewall said:

We have seen it before this winter with the models getting aggressive only to pull back a bit northwest at the last minute. RAH busted on a few winter storm warnings this year because of that.

The thing is, storm track doesn't make much of a difference, with the high locked in place. Of course, it's quite possible the models are overdoing the strength of the wedge, but I wouldn't count on it.

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I dont think anyone but @wxduncan will care much if the trends go warmer.  That being said, these last minute adjustments continue to be a problem that seems to have no solution except finding more data sources other than airplanes.

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RAP (old school model I used to use) has a couple ZR maxs. One is near Youngsville and Northern Wake county with .9 (which is cray)

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1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

I dont think anyone but @wxduncan will care much if the trends go warmer.  That being said, these last minute adjustments continue to be a problem that seems to have no solution except finding more data sources other than airplanes.

Prob right I just needed them to trend back closer to the 0Z suite of data.  As long I get close 0.50 or at least 0.40 I will be happy here In Valdese.

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